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Suundumused ja prognoosid: ELi heitkoguste piiratud suurenemine keset pandeemiajärgset taastumist ja energiakriisi

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News Avaldatud 2022-11-24 Viimati muudetud 2023-08-03
4 min read
Euroopa Keskkonnaameti (EEA) täna avaldatud suundumuste ja prognooside aruande kohaselt suurenesid 2021. aastal kasvuhoonegaaside heitkogused ja energiatarbimine peamiselt Euroopa pandeemiajärgse taastumise tõttu. Enamik ELi liikmesriike saavutasid edukalt ELi 2020. aasta kliima- ja energiaeesmärgid ning on pööranud nüüd tähelepanu kliimaneutraalsusele, käsitledes ka praegust energiavarustuse kriisi. Ambitsioonikamate 2030. aasta kliima- ja energiaeesmärkide saavutamiseks on vaja enam kui kahekordistada iga-aastaseid edusamme taastuvenergiaallikate kasutuselevõtul, energiatarbimise ja kasvuhoonegaaside heitkoguste vähendamisel.

Energia säästmine ja taastuvenergiaallikate tugevdamine on otsustava tähtsusega mitte üksnes toimetulekuks vahetu energiakriisiga, vaid ka kliimaneutraalsuse saavutamiseks,

Pärast pikka perioodi, mil kasvuhoonegaaside heide Euroopas vähenes, on majanduse taastumine COVID-19 liikumispiirangutest põhjustanud heitkoguste suurenemist, eelkõige transpordi-, tööstus- ja energiavarustussektoris, vastavalt EEA 2022. aasta aruande „Trends and Projections in Europe 2022“ jaoks esitatud andmetele. Ähvardava energiakriisi ja eelkõige kõrge gaasihinna tõttu läks energiavarustussektor osaliselt üle CO2-mahukama energia kütustele, samas kui viimastel aastatel täheldatud taastuvenergia jõuline kasv aeglustus 2021. aastal. Selle arengu vastustamiseks on oluline, et tänased energiataristu otsused võtaksid arvesse tuleviku kliimaneutraalsuse eesmärke, et vältida sõltuvust CO2-mahuka tootmise mõjust.

„Lähikuudel ja -aastatel on vaja võtta kriitilise tähtsusega meetmeid, tagamaks, et ELi liikmesriigid saaksid kehtestada ambitsioonikad heitkoguste vähendamise kavad, et täita ELi kliimaeesmärgid. Kuigi sel talvel on vaja lühiajalisi energiavarustuse suurendamise meetmeid, ei tohiks need investeeringud sundida Euroopat jääma sõltuma fossiilkütustest veel paljudeks aastateks. Energia säästmine ja taastuvenergiaallikate tugevdamine on otsustava tähtsusega mitte üksnes toimetulekuks vahetu energiakriisiga, vaid ka kliimaneutraalsuse saavutamiseks,“ ütles EEA tegevdirektor Hans Bruyninckx.

 

Heitkogused suurenevad jälle, energiatarbimine kasvab

ELi liikmesriikide teatatud esialgsete andmete kohaselt suurenesid kasvuhoonegaaside heitkogused 2021. aastal 5% võrra võrreldes 2020. aastaga (koos rahvusvahelise lennundusega). Heitkogused on siiski jäänud oluliselt väiksemaks kui COVIDi-eelne 2019. aasta tase.

Hinnangud viitavad, et 2020. aastaga võrreldes suurenes energiatarbimine 2021. aastal nii primaar- kui lõppenergia tarbimise osas (vastavalt 6% ja 5%). Primaarenergia tarbimine mõõdab energianõudlust ja lõppenergia tarbimine viitab sellele, mida lõppkasutajad tegelikult kasutavad. Seda energiakasutuse suurenemist saab suuresti seostada majanduse taastumisega. 2021. aastal ei olnud veel märgatav kasvavate energiahindade mõju aastatarbimise arvnäitajatele. Võib eeldada, et see on ilmsem 2022. aastal.

Esialgsed andmed näitavad, et taastuvenergiaallikate osakaal Euroopas oli 2021. aasta energiatarbimisest endiselt 22%, mis katkestas muidu suure viimaste aastate kasvu. Seda saab seletada tuuleenergia ja hüdroenergia väiksema panusega 2021. aastal ning energiatarbimise suurenemisega.

 

Eelolev aasta on kriitiline liikumisel 2030. aasta eesmärkide saavutamise poole

Lähiaastatel on vaja aastast aastasse säilitada oluline heitkoguste vähenemine, et saavutada kliimaneutraalsus pikas perspektiivis. Euroopa kliimamäärusega suurendati 2030. aasta eesmärki vähendada kasvuhoonegaaside netoheidet 2030. aastaks vähemalt 55% võrreldes 1990. aasta heitkogustega. Praegu peavad Euroopa Parlament ja liikmesriigid läbirääkimisi tervikliku paketi „Eesmärk 55“ üle, võttes samas arvesse ka 2022. aasta kava „RePowerEU“.

Et saavutada 2030. aasta eesmärk 55% kasvuhoonegaaside netoheitest, peaks heide 2021. aasta hinnangulise tasemega võrreldes vähenema keskmiselt 134 miljoni tonni süsinikdioksiidi (CO2 ekvivalendi miljoni tonni) võrra aastas. See on üle kahe korra suurem kui aasta keskmine vähenemine, mis saavutati aastatel 1990–2020. Kõik sektorid peavad oluliselt tõhustama oma tegevust kasvuhoonegaaside heitkoguste vähendamisel. Lisaks tuleb suurendada CO2 eemaldamist maakasutuse, maakasutuse muutmise ja metsanduse kaudu, muutes vastupidiseks praeguse suundumuse, kui CO2 sidumine väheneb ELis.

Samal ajal peaks energiakasutus järgmistel aastatel oluliselt vähenema – kava „REPowerEU“ raames hiljuti esitatud 2030. aasta eesmärk nõuab iga-aastase energiasäästu enam kui kahekordistamist aastatel 2022–2030. Sama kehtib taastuvenergia kohta: alates 2005. aastast on taastuvenergia osakaal Euroopa summaarses energia lõpptarbimises kasvanud keskmiselt 0,8 protsendipunkti aastas. See arv peaks 2030. aastaks suurenema 2,5 protsendipunktini aastas, et saavutada kavas „REPowerEU“ esitatud suurem taastuvenergia eesmärk 45%.

Kuigi liikmesriikide tasandil on juba saavutatud olulist edu, ei ole praegused poliitikad ja meetmed piisavad uute ambitsioonikate kliima- ja energiaeesmärkide täitmiseks. Liikmesriigid esitavad 2023. aasta keskpaigaks riiklike energia- ja kliimakavade ajakohastatud versioonid. See annab neile võimaluse tõhustada oma meetmeid ja töötada välja kavad kuni 2030. aastani, mis kajastavad ELi uusi ambitsioone ja kliimaneutraalsuse eesmärki.

 

EEA’s climate and energy package:

Updated climate and energy indicators:

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Põhineb andmetel

Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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