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Trendy a vyhliadky: mierny nárast emisií EÚ v súvislosti s obnovou po pandémii a energetickou krízou

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Novinky Publikované 01. 12. 2022 Posledná zmena 03. 08. 2023
5 min read
Podľa najnovšej správy „Trends and Projections“ (Trendy a vyhliadky), ktorú dnes uverejnila Európska environmentálna agentúra (EEA), sa emisie skleníkových plynov a spotreba energie v roku 2021 zvýšili najmä v dôsledku obnovy Európy po pandémii. Väčšina členských štátov EÚ úspešne dosiahla ciele EÚ v oblasti klímy a energetiky do roku 2020 a v súčasnosti obracia pozornosť na klimatickú neutralitu a zároveň rieši súčasnú krízu dodávok energie. Dosiahnutie ambicióznejších cieľov v oblasti klímy a energetiky do roku 2030 si bude vyžadovať viac než zdvojnásobenie ročného pokroku pri zavádzaní využívania obnoviteľných zdrojov energie, znižovaní spotreby energie a emisií skleníkových plynov.

Úspora energie a posilnenie obnoviteľných zdrojov energie majú zásadný význam nielen pri riešení bezprostrednej energetickej krízy, ale aj pri dosiahnuí klimatickej neutrality,

Dlhé obdobie poklesu emisií skleníkových plynov v Európe v dôsledku obmedzenia pohybu kvôli pandémii ochorenia COVID-19 vystriedala fáza obnovy hospodárstva, ktorá podľa údajov v správe EEA „Trends and Projections in Europe 2022“ [Trendy a vyhliadky v Európe v roku 2022] viedla k zvýšeniu emisií, najmä v odvetví dopravy, priemyslu a dodávok energie. Vzhľadom na hroziacu energetickú krízu, a najmä vysokú cenu plynu, došlo v odvetví dodávok energie k čiastočnému prechodu na energetické palivá s vyššou uhlíkovou náročnosťou, zatiaľ čo silný nárast podielu energie z obnoviteľných zdrojov zaznamenaný v posledných rokoch v roku 2021 už nepokračoval. V záujme zamedzenia tohto vývoja je nevyhnutné zohľadňovať v súčasných rozhodnutiach o energetickej infraštruktúre cieľ klimatickej neutrality do budúcnosti, aby sa predišlo efektu uhlíkovej pasce.

„V nadchádzajúcich mesiacoch a rokoch budú potrebné zásadné opatrenia, aby členské štáty EÚ mohli zaviesť do praxe ambiciózne plány znižovania emisií s cieľom splniť ciele EÚ v oblasti klímy. Hoci sú v zime tohto roku potrebné krátkodobé opatrenia na zvýšenie dodávok energie, tieto investície by nemali Európu viazať na mnoho rokov závislosti od fosílnych palív. Úspora energie a posilnenie obnoviteľných zdrojov energie majú zásadný význam nielen pri riešení bezprostrednej energetickej krízy, ale aj pri dosiahnuí klimatickej neutrality,“ uviedol výkonný riaditeľ EEA Hans Bruyninckx.

 

Stúpajúce emisie; stúpajúca spotreba energie

Podľa predbežných údajov, ktoré nahlásili členské štáty EÚ, sa emisie skleníkových plynov od roku 2021 zvýšili o 5 %, a to aj v dôsledku medzinárodnej leteckej dopravy. Emisie však zostávajú výrazne pod úrovňou pred pandémiou ochorenia COVID-19 z roku 2019.

Podľa odhadov sa spotreba energie v roku 2021 zvýšila v porovnaní s rokom 2020 tak v primárnej, ako aj konečnej energetickej spotrebe, a to o 6 %, resp. 5 %. Primárna energetická spotreba meria dopyt po energii, zatiaľ čo konečná spotreba energie sa vzťahuje na to, čo koncoví používatelia skutočne používajú. Toto zvýšenie spotreby energie možno vo veľkej miere pripísať oživeniu hospodárstva. Zatiaľ čo v roku 2021 vplyv rastúcich cien energie na údaje o ročnej spotrebe ešte nebol viditeľný, možno očakávať, že v roku 2022 bude očividnejší.

Z predbežných údajov vyplýva, že celkový podiel energie z obnoviteľných zdrojov v Európe zostal v roku 2021 na úrovni 22 % spotreby energie, čím sa pozastavil dovtedy silný nárast za posledné roky. Možno to vysvetliť nižším podielom veternej a vodnej energie v roku 2021 spolu so zvýšenou spotrebou energie.

 

Zásadný rok pre dosiahnutie pokroku pri plnení cieľov do roku 2030

V nadchádzajúcich rokoch bude potrebné udržať výrazné medziročné znižovanie emisií, aby sa v dlhodobom horizonte dosiahla klimatická neutralita. Vďaka európskym právnym predpisom v oblasti klímy sa cieľ zníženia emisií do roku 2030 zvýšil na aspoň 55 % zníženie čistých emisií skleníkových plynov do roku 2030 v porovnaní s úrovňami z roku 1990. Európsky parlament a členské štáty v súčasnosti rokujú o komplexnom balíku návrhov Fit for 55, pričom zohľadňujú aj navrhovaný plán RePower EU na rok 2022.

Na dosiahnutie cieľa, ktorým je 55 % čistých emisií skleníkových plynov do roku 2030, by sa emisie museli znížiť v priemere o 134 miliónov ton oxidu uhličitého (MtCO2 ekv.) ročne v porovnaní s odhadovanými úrovňami v roku 2021. Je to viac ako dvojnásobok priemerného ročného zníženia, ktoré sa dosiahlo v rokoch 1990 až 2020. Všetky odvetvia musia výrazne zintenzívniť úsilie pri znižovaní emisií skleníkových plynov. Okrem toho sa musí zvýšiť zachytávanie CO2 prostredníctvom využívania pôdy, zmien vo využívaní pôdy a lesného hospodárstva, čím sa zvráti súčasný trend spomalenia zachytávania uhlíka v EÚ.

Zároveň by sa spotreba energie mala v nasledujúcich rokoch výrazne znížiť – novonavrhovaný cieľ na rok 2030 v kontexte plánu REPowerEU si vyžaduje viac ako zdvojnásobenie ročných úspor energie v období rokov 2022 až 2030. To isté platí pre energiu z obnoviteľných zdrojov: od roku 2005 sa podiel energie z obnoviteľných zdrojov na hrubej konečnej spotrebe energie v Európe každoročne zvyšuje v priemere o 0,8 percentuálneho bodu. Tento údaj by sa mal do roku 2030 zvýšiť na 2,5 percentuálneho bodu ročne, aby sa dosiahol zvýšený cieľ 45 % energie z obnoviteľných zdrojov navrhnutý v pláne REPowerEU.

Hoci sa na úrovni členských štátov už dosiahol značný pokrok, súčasné politické kroky a opatrenia nie sú dostatočné na splnenie nových ambicióznych cieľov v oblasti klímy a energetiky. Členské štáty predložia do polovice roka 2023 návrhy aktualizácií svojich národných energetických a klimatických plánov. To im poskytne príležitosť zintenzívniť svoje opatrenia a vypracovať plány na obdobie do roku 2030, ktoré budú odrážať nové ambície EÚ a cieľ klimatickej neutrality.

 

EEA’s climate and energy package:

Updated climate and energy indicators:

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Na základe údajov

Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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