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Tendencias y proyecciones: repunte leve de las emisiones en la UE en el contexto de la recuperación tras la pandemia y de la crisis energética

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Noticias Publicado 01/12/2022 Última modificación 03/08/2023
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Las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y el consumo de energía aumentaron en 2021 debido principalmente a la recuperación europea tras la pandemia, según el último informe «Tendencias y proyecciones» publicado hoy por la Agencia Europea de Medio Ambiente (AEMA). La mayoría de los Estados miembros de la UE lograron alcanzar los objetivos energéticos y climáticos de la UE para 2020 y están dirigiendo su atención hacia la neutralidad climática, al tiempo que abordan la actual crisis de suministro de energía. Para lograr los objetivos climáticos y energéticos de 2030, que son más ambiciosos, será necesario incrementar el progreso anual en el despliegue de energías renovables a una velocidad más del doble de la actual, así como reducir el consumo de energía y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.

Es fundamental que ahorremos energía y reforcemos las fuentes de energía renovables, no solo para abordar la crisis energética inmediata, sino también para lograr la neutralidad climática

Según los datos del informe «Tendencias y proyecciones» de la AEMA de 2022, tras un largo período en el que las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero disminuyeron en Europa, se han incrementado de nuevo debido a la recuperación económica posterior a los confinamientos por la COVID-19, en particular en los sectores del transporte, la industria y el suministro de energía. Ante la amenaza de una crisis energética y, en particular, de los elevados precios del gas, el sector energético dio un giro parcial hacia combustibles energéticos con alto contenido de carbono, mientras que el fuerte crecimiento que habían experimentado las energías renovables en los últimos años perdió impulso en 2021. Para contrarrestar esta tendencia, es fundamental que las decisiones que se tomen en el presente en relación con las infraestructuras energéticas tengan en cuenta el objetivo de neutralidad del futuro para evitar los efectos de la dependencia del carbono a largo plazo.

«En los próximos meses y años será necesario tomar medidas decisivas para que los Estados miembros de la UE puedan desarrollar planes ambiciosos de reducción de las emisiones y así cumplir los objetivos climáticos de la UE. Aunque este invierno se necesitan medidas a corto plazo para impulsar el suministro de energía, estos esfuerzos no deben estancar a Europa en una dependencia de los combustibles fósiles de muchos más años. Es fundamental que ahorremos energía y reforcemos las fuentes de energía renovables, no solo para abordar la crisis energética inmediata, sino también para lograr la neutralidad climática», expuso Hans Bruyninckx, director ejecutivo de la AEMA.

 

Las emisiones repuntan y aumenta el consumo energético

Según datos preliminares notificados por los Estados miembros de la UE, las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, incluida la aviación internacional, aumentaron un 5 % en 2021 con respecto a 2020. Sin embargo, se mantuvieron muy por debajo de los niveles de 2019, anteriores a la COVID.

Las estimaciones sugieren que en 2021 el consumo de energía, tanto primaria como final, aumentó un 6 % y un 5 %, respectivamente, en comparación con 2020. El consumo de energía primaria mide la demanda de energía, mientras que el consumo de energía final se refiere a lo que utilizan realmente los usuarios finales. Este incremento del uso de energía puede atribuirse en gran medida a la recuperación económica. El efecto del aumento de los precios de la energía en las cifras anuales de consumo todavía no era visible en 2021; sin embargo, cabe esperar que sea más evidente en 2022.

Los datos preliminares sugieren que la cuota total de Europa de fuentes de energía renovables se mantuvo en el 22 % del consumo de energía en 2021, frenando el fuerte crecimiento de los últimos años, lo que puede explicarse por la menor contribución de la energía eólica e hidráulica en 2021, junto con el repunte del consumo de energía.

 

Año crítico para el avance hacia los objetivos para 2030

Para lograr la neutralidad climática a largo plazo, será necesario mantener reducciones sustanciales de las emisiones año tras año. Mediante la Legislación climática europea, se incrementó el objetivo de reducción neta de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para 2030, que pasó a ser al menos del 55 % con respecto a los niveles de 1990. En estos momentos, el Parlamento Europeo y los Estados miembros están negociando el exhaustivo paquete de medidas «Objetivo 55», teniendo en cuenta también el plan propuesto «REPowerEU» de 2022.

Para lograr el objetivo del 55 % marcado para 2030, las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero tendrían que disminuir por término medio 134 millones de toneladas equivalentes de dióxido de carbono al año con respecto a los niveles estimados de 2021. Esto supone más del doble de la reducción media anual lograda entre 1990 y 2020. Todos los sectores deben intensificar significativamente sus esfuerzos para mitigar las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Además, debe aumentar la eliminación de CO2 a través del uso y el cambio de uso del suelo, y la silvicultura, a fin de invertir la tendencia actual de reducción de los sumideros de carbono en la UE.

Al mismo tiempo, el consumo de energía debería disminuir sustancialmente en los próximos años —el nuevo objetivo propuesto para 2030 en el contexto de REPowerEU requiere más del doble del ahorro anual de energía en el período comprendido entre 2022 y 2030. Lo mismo ocurre con las energías renovables: desde 2005, la cuota de energías renovables en el consumo final bruto de energía de Europa ha crecido una media de 0,8 puntos porcentuales al año. Esa cifra debería aumentar a 2,5 puntos porcentuales al año en 2030 para alcanzar el objetivo del 45 % de energías renovables propuesto en el marco de REPowerEU.

A nivel de los Estados miembros, si bien ya se ha avanzado sustancialmente, las políticas y medidas en vigor no son suficientes para cumplir los nuevos y ambiciosos objetivos climáticos y energéticos. Para mediados de 2023 los Estados miembros deberán presentar proyectos de actualización de sus planes nacionales de energía y clima, lo que les brindará la oportunidad de mejorar las medidas y desarrollar planes para el período de aquí a 2030 que reflejen las nuevas ambiciones de la UE y el objetivo de neutralidad climática.

 

EEA’s climate and energy package:

Updated climate and energy indicators:

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Basado en datos

Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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