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Tendências e projeções: ressalto limitado das emissões da UE num contexto de recuperação pós-pandemia e de crise energética

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Notícias Publicado 2022-11-24 Modificado pela última vez 2023-08-03
5 min read
As emissões de gases com efeito de estufa e o consumo de energia aumentaram em 2021, principalmente devido à recuperação pós-pandemia na Europa, de acordo com o último relatório «Trends and Projections» (Tendências e Projeções) publicado hoje pela Agência Europeia do Ambiente (AEA). A maioria dos Estados-Membros da UE alcançou com êxito as metas da UE em matéria de clima e energia para 2020 e está agora de olhos postos na neutralidade climática, ao mesmo tempo que enfrenta a atual crise de aprovisionamento energético. Para atingir as metas mais ambiciosos em matéria de clima e energia para 2030 será necessário mais do que duplicar os progressos anuais na implantação das energias renováveis, na redução do consumo de energia e nas emissões de gases com efeito de estufa.

A poupança de energia e o reforço das fontes de energia renováveis são fundamentais não só para fazer face à crise energética imediata, mas também para alcançar a neutralidade climática

Após um longo período de redução das emissões de gases com efeito de estufa na Europa, a recuperação económica após os períodos de confinamentos ligados à COVID-19 conduziu a um aumento das emissões, em especial no setor dos transportes, da indústria e do aprovisionamento energético, de acordo com os dados comunicados para o relatório da AEA «Trends and Projections in Europe 2022» (Tendências e Projeções na Europa 2022). Com uma crise energética iminente e, em especial, um preço elevado do gás, o setor do aprovisionamento energético assistiu a uma transição parcial para combustíveis de maior intensidade carbónica, enquanto o forte crescimento das energias renováveis observado nos últimos anos perdeu ritmo em 2021. Para contrariar esta evolução, é fundamental que as decisões do presente em matéria de infraestruturas energéticas tenham em conta o objetivo de neutralidade climática do futuro, por forma a evitar efeitos de dependência do carbono.

«Serão necessárias medidas críticas nos próximos meses e anos para garantir que os Estados-Membros da UE possam pôr em prática planos ambiciosos de redução das emissões para cumprir as metas climáticas da UE. Embora este inverno seja necessário tomar medidas a curto prazo para aumentar o aprovisionamento energético, estes investimentos não devem amarrar a Europa a muitos mais anos de dependência dos combustíveis fósseis. A poupança de energia e o reforço das fontes de energia renováveis são fundamentais não só para fazer face à crise energética imediata, mas também para alcançar a neutralidade climática», declarou Hans Bruyninckx, Diretor Executivo da AEA.

 

As emissões aumentam e o consumo de energia sobe

De acordo com os dados preliminares comunicados pelos Estados-Membros da UE, em 2021 as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa aumentaram 5 % em relação a 2020, incluindo a aviação internacional. As emissões, continuam, contudo, muito abaixo do nível pré-COVID de 2019.

As estimativas apontam para um aumento do consumo de energia em 2021 em comparação com 2022, tanto para o consumo de energia primária (6 %) como para o consumo da energia final (5 %). O consumo de energia primária mede a procura de energia, enquanto o consumo de energia final corresponde à energia que os utilizadores finais efetivamente utilizam. Este aumento da utilização de energia pode ser atribuído, em larga medida, à recuperação económica. Em 2021, o efeito do aumento dos preços da energia nos valores do consumo anual ainda não foi visível, sendo de esperar que esse efeito se torne mais evidente em 2022.

Os dados preliminares indicam que a quota-parte do total das fontes de energia renováveis no consumo de energia em 2021 na Europa se manteve em 22 %, interrompendo o forte crescimento dos últimos anos. Tal pode ser explicado pelas contribuições menos importantes da energia eólica e hidroelétrica em 2021, juntamento com os ressaltos do consumo de energia.

 

O próximo ano será um ano crítico para a realização de progressos nas metas para 2030

Nos próximos anos, será necessário manter níveis substanciais de redução das emissões ano após ano para se alcançar a neutralidade climática a longo prazo. Com a Lei Europeia em matéria de Clima, a meta de redução para 2030 foi aumentada para uma redução de, pelo menos, 55 % das emissões líquidas de gases com efeito de estufa (GEE) até 2030, em comparação com os níveis de 1990. Neste momento, o Parlamento Europeu e os Estados-Membros estão a negociar o pacote de propostas «Objetivo 55», tendo simultaneamente em conta a proposta do plano REPowerEU de 2022.

Para atingir o objetivo de 55 % de emissões líquidas de GEE até 2030, as emissões terão de diminuir 134 milhões de toneladas de dióxido de carbono (Mt de equivalente CO2) por ano, em média, em relação aos níveis estimados em 2021. Isto representa mais do dobro da redução média anual realizada entre 1990 e 2020. Todos os setores devem intensificar significativamente os esforços de redução das emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. Além disso, será necessário aumentar a remoção de CO2 através do uso do solo, da alteração do uso do solo e das florestas, invertendo a atual tendência de decréscimo dos sumidouros de carbono na UE.

Ao mesmo tempo, o consumo de energia deve diminuir substancialmente nos próximos anos — para atingir o objetivo recentemente proposto para 2030 no quadro do REPowerEU, as poupanças anuais de energia no período 2022-2030 devem mais do duplicar. O mesmo se aplica às energias renováveis: desde 2005, a quota-parte das energias renováveis no consumo final bruto de energia da Europa aumentou, em média, 0,8 pontos percentuais por ano. Este número deverá aumentar para 2,5 pontos percentuais por ano até 2030, para se conseguir cumprir o objetivo de aumento de 45 % de energias renováveis proposto no REPowerEU.

A nível dos Estados-Membros, embora tenham sido realizados progressos substanciais, as atuais políticas e medidas não são suficientes para atingir os novos objetivos ambiciosos em matéria de clima e energia. Até meados de 2023, os Estados-Membros apresentarão os seus projetos de atualização dos planos nacionais em matéria de energia e clima. Tal dar-lhes-á a oportunidade de intensificar as suas medidas e de elaborar planos para o período até 2030 que reflitam as novas ambições da UE e o objetivo de neutralidade climática.

 

EEA’s climate and energy package:

Updated climate and energy indicators:

Conteúdo relacionado

Baseado em dados

Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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