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Open ocean — mean ocean temperature

Page Last modified 19 Nov 2021
2 min read
The planet’s oceans are warming, and that has many implications. Changes in ocean temperature can have widespread effects on marine species and biodiversity, with direct and indirect impacts on both natural and human activities, from ecosystem services to the fishing industry. Higher ocean surface temperatures can increase water vapour in the atmosphere, which influences weather both at sea and over land. Ocean warming in coastal areas can trigger algal blooms and bacterial outbreaks, which can be dangerous to marine life, human health and industries relying on tourism, fisheries, etc.

Key messages


  • Annual mean sea surface temperature has increased in all European regional seas. Further ocean warming is expected in future, potentially exceeding 3 °C by the end of this century under a high-emissions scenario, with somewhat lower warming for the Atlantic than for the other regional seas.

Sea surface temperature

Definition

Sea surface temperature (SST) is a key indicator of climate change in the ocean. SST represents the temperature of sea water at or near the surface over different timescales (e.g. seasonally and annually).

Note that different methods have been used historically to measure SST (ships, buoys and satellites), which requires careful consideration when building homogeneous data sets.

Index factsheet (ETC/CCA Technical Paper): Sea surface temperature

Relevance

The index is easy to interpret and provides information for a variety of applications, mostly related to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Increasing SSTs in coastal areas can trigger algal blooms and outbreaks of vibrio bacteria, which can negatively affect human health and recreation.

Past and projected changes

Annual mean SST has increased in all European regional seas since 1870, particularly since the late 1970s.

Further increases are projected in the future, and these could exceed 3 °C by the end of the 21st century under the high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP)8.5). The greatest increases are projected for the Arctic Ocean, the North Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, whereas smaller SST increases are projected for the Atlantic Ocean.

Further information (EEA indicator assessment): European sea surface temperature 

Annual mean sea surface temperature for European seas

Sea Surface temperature

 

Notes:   The black line shows the annual values for 1979-2018 from reanalysis data, and the dashed horizontal line shows the mean for 1986-2005. Solid grey, blue, yellow and red lines represent the ensemble median of model simulations for the historical period and under low-, medium- and high-emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) (smoothed by a 20-year moving average). Shaded areas show the 15th and 85th percentile ranges of the model ensemble. The size of the model ensemble used for each scenario is shown by the coloured numbers in the top-right corner. European seas include all sea surfaces within 25 °W-50 °E and 34 °N-75 °N.

Source:  ERA5 and bias-adjusted CMIP5 data. 

Projected changes in annual mean sea surface temperature in European seas under the high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5)

Notes:   The top panel shows the 1986-2005 mean values based on the reanalysis. The central row shows the 15th and 85th percentiles of projected values for near and far future. The projected changes compared with the 1986-2005 reference period are reported on the bottom row.

Source:  ERA5 and bias-adjusted CMIP5 data.

Chapters of the Europe's changing climate hazards report

  1. Heat and cold

  2. Wet and dry

  3. Wind

  4. Snow and ice

  5. Coastal

  6. Open ocean

                                                                               

Back to main page of the report

Related content

Related briefings

Briefing How climate change impacts marine life This briefing summarises some of the ways in which climate change is impacting Europe’s marine ecosystems. It identifies how various ecosystem features are influenced by climate change and spotlights potential areas of concern. It also highlights areas where marine life may be more impacted by climate change compared with other areas. This work supports the recent integration of climate change as a key consideration in the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). It does this by presenting a spatial description of the vulnerabilities of marine areas to climate change.
Briefing What will the future bring when it comes to climate hazards? - Overview A carefully selected set of indices covering the main climate-related hazards for Europe has been put together from available data sources by experts in the field. These 32 indices are organised according to 16 hazards and are grouped into six categories consistent with the ‘climatic impact drivers’ adopted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. These categories and the key take-home messages from the EEA’s interactive report on Europe’s changing climate hazards are found below.
Briefing Europe’s changing climate hazards — about the report Europe’s changing climate hazards report lets users explore the latest data on 32 climate hazard indices. It provides the big picture and also the detailed information needed for smarter decision-making to prevent the worst impacts of climate change from affecting communities and regions across Europe. Here, we show how information can help Europe tackle the hazards created by man-made climate change.

See also

Page National and transnational climate atlases in Europe Many European countries have developed national ‘climate atlases’ (or ‘climate portals’) with spatially explicit information on past and projected climate change. These atlases inform the development and implementation of climate change adaptation plans and strategies, and provide complementary information to pan-European sources, including the indices presented in the Europe’s changing climate hazards report and the European Climate Data Explorer. The national atlases often use more detailed models and observations, and they can contextualise information on the changing climate in terms of regional environmental and socio-economic conditions in the local language(s).
Folder Open ocean From this page you can access all the indices related to Open ocean.
Folder Coastal From this page, you can access all indices related to coastal hazards.
Folder Snow and ice From this page, you can access all the indices related to snow and ice hazards.
Folder Wind From this page, you can access all indices related to wind hazards.
Folder Wet and dry From this page, you can access all indices related to wet and dry hazards.
Folder Heat and cold From this page, you can access all indices on Heat and cold hazards.

Permalinks

Geographic coverage

For references, please go to https://eea.europa.eu./publications/europes-changing-climate-hazards-1/open-ocean/open-ocean-mean-ocean-temperature or scan the QR code.

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