Annex 1 — Progress towards greenhouse gas emission targets: data and methodology

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Topics: Climate change mitigation

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A1.1 Reporting requirements for greenhouse gas emissions

The assessments of progress towards GHG emission targets presented in this report are based, for the most part, on information submitted by Member States under Regulation (EU) No 525/2013, the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR) (EU, 2013e).

The purposes of the reporting requirements stipulated in the MMR are to enable the EU to complete its reporting commitments under the UNFCCC, and to evaluate the projected progress of the EU and its Member States towards fulfilling their GHG mitigation commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, in annual reports prepared by the European Commission and the EEA.

Implementing provisions (EU, 2014d) provide a structure and format for the reporting of GHG inventories and approximated GHG inventories, information on policies and measures, GHG projections and the use of auctioning revenue and project credits, and they are used for the purposes of the LULUCF Decision (EU, 2013d). Furthermore, a delegated act (EU, 2014c) defines the substantive requirements for an EU inventory system to fulfil the obligations pursuant to Decision 19/CMP.1.

A1.2 Data sources for greenhouse gas emissions

The analysis presented in this report is based on several sets of GHG emission data.

A1.2.1 Historical trends in greenhouse gas emissions

GHG emission data for the period from 1990 to 2015 are official data reported by the EU and Member States under the UNFCCC in their corresponding GHG inventory reports (EEA, 2017a, 2017c). The EEA is responsible for the compilation of the EU GHG inventory and, together with the European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM) [1], it implements a quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) procedure (EC, 2013a) in order to ensure the timeliness, completeness, consistency, comparability, accuracy and transparency of the inventories reported by Member States and used in this report. In 2016, a comprehensive review of GHG emission data took place under Article 19 of the MMR, in the context of the annual compliance cycle under the ESD. This concerned the years 2005, 2008-2010, 2013 and 2014. The year 2015 was reviewed in 2017 in the course of the annual review cycle under Article 19 of the MMR.

From 2015 onwards, Member States' GHG inventories are based on the use of global warming potentials (GWPs) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (UNFCCC, 2013a). Thus all the emission estimates used in this report were calculated using GWPs from the IPCC's AR4.

A1.2.2 Approximated greenhouse gas emissions for 2016

Early 'approximated' (proxy) estimates of 2016 GHG emissions were reported by Member States to the European Commission under the MMR by 31 July 2017. These estimates were aggregated to EU level by the EEA (EEA, 2017b). Bulgaria, Cyprus and Romania did not submit proxy GHG inventories. For those countries, proxies have been calculated by the EEA and the ETC/ACM.

A1.2.3 Greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union Emissions Trading System since 2005

Data relative to the EU ETS are used to analyse emission trends but also to determine the level of emissions covered under the ESD. For the years 2005-2012, ETS emissions include estimates to reflect the scope of the EU ETS for the third trading period. These data are publicly available from the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL) [2] and the EEA ETS data viewer (EEA, 2017f). The data considered in the analysis were extracted from the EUTL on 20 July 2017.

A1.2.4 Emissions covered under the Effort Sharing Decision

For the purpose of analysing emission trends in the ESD, historical ESD emissions are calculated using the latest GHG inventory data, from which ETS emissions, CO₂ emissions from domestic aviation and nitrogen trifluoride (NF₃) emissions are subtracted. ETS emissions include EEA estimates to reflect the scope of the EU ETS for the third trading period for the years 2005-2012.

The ESD GHG emission data for the years 2013 and 2015 are consistent with the outcome of the 2016 and 2017 reviews of national GHG inventory data pursuant to Article 19 of the MMR. The data used by the European Commission to determine Member States' compliance under the ESD for 2013, 2014 and 2015 are made publicly available (EU, 2016, 2017a; EC, 2017b).

A1.2.5 Long-term historical trends in Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Decision emissions

For Figures 2.3 and 2.4, GHG emissions for the years 1990-2016 are split into those covered by the EU ETS and those covered by the ESD. These splits are based on the application of a percentage for each of the main source categories defined by the IPCC for the reporting of national GHG inventories, based on Member States' projections submitted in 2017. Projections for ETS and ESD are reported by source categories in Member States' submissions.

The 'industry' sector in Figure 2.4 aggregates ESD emissions of source categories 1.A1., 1.A.2, 1.B, 1.C and 2.

A1.2.6 Annual emission targets (annual emission allocations) under the Effort Sharing Decision for the period from 2013 to 2020

The AEA values for the period from 2013 to 2020 were defined in Commission Decision No 2013/162/EU (EU, 2013a) and adjusted in accordance with Commission Implementing Decision No 2013/634/EU (EU, 2013b), to reflect the change in scope of the EU ETS in 2013.

Following the 2016 comprehensive review of Member States' historical GHG inventory estimates, the AEAs for the years 2017-2020 were recalculated to reflect updates in methodologies for reporting of GHG inventories (see EU, 2017b). This recalculation ensures that the originally intended level of effort (as a percentage) is maintained for each Member State in the ESD. The recalculation also ensures consistency between the targets and the emissions reported by the Member States for compliance with the Effort Sharing Decision, as the current reported emissions already take into account the methodological updates.

Following, Commission Decision (EU) 2017/1471 (EU, EU, 2017b), 2005 ESD base-year emissions and AEA values for 2017-2020 used throughout this report differ from the values presented in previous reports.

A1.2.7 The 2005 Effort Sharing Decision base-year emissions

The 2005 'ESD baseyear emissions' are calculated by the EEA, so as to be consistent with both:

the relative 2020 ESD target (as a percentage of 2005 emissions) defined in the ESD (EU, 2009c);
the absolute 2020 ESD target determined by the European Commission (EU, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b) [3].

The EEA calculates 2005 'ESD baseyear emissions' as follows:

ESD base-year emissions = 2020 absolute target/(1 + % of 2020 ESD target).

These calculated ESD baseyear emissions can also be used, for example, to compare relative changes in ESD emissions with 2020 ESD targets expressed by percentage.

In this report, calculated 2005 ESD baseyear emissions are used to express the distance between ESD emissions and ESD targets in a normalised way (see, for example, Figures 3.1 and 3.2). The distance, calculated as the absolute difference between emissions and targets divided by 2005 baseyear emissions, is expressed in percentage points (a proportion of 2005 baseyear emissions). It is then directly comparable with targets and reductions as percentages of 2005 levels, and allows relevant comparisons between Member States.

These calculated 2005 ESD baseyear emissions reflect the current scope of the EU ETS (EU, 2013b) and the outcome of the comprehensive ESD review in 2016 and may therefore differ, sometimes significantly, from actual historical 2005 emissions under the ESD based on the latest GHG inventories.

A1.2.8 Projections of greenhouse gas emissions

The report uses GHG projection data that are reported biennially by Member States under the MMR (EEA, 2017d). Mandatory reporting takes place every 2 years (2015, 2017, etc.). Member States must also report substantial changes to projections every other year (2014, 2016, etc.). In 2017 all 28 Member States and Norway submitted projections under the MMR.

Under the MMR, Member States report projections in two scenarios:

A WEM scenario, which considers the implementation of existing (already implemented) measures, can be applied.
If available, a WAM scenario, which also considers the implementation of additional measures (at planning stage), can be applied. In 2017, 18 Member States reported projections on the basis of such WAM scenarios: Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and the United Kingdom. Denmark submitted a WAM scenario that is equal to its WEM scenario. For the aggregation of a WAM scenario at EU level, Member States that have not reported a WAM scenario have been gap-filled using the WEM scenario.

An overview of projected emissions for both scenarios is presented in Table A1.1.

Member States reported projections for total and sectoral GHG emissions, as well as a split of these projections between those covered by the EU ETS and those covered by the ESD, by source categories. Although projections of total emissions are relevant to the assessment of the EU's progress towards its 20 % reduction target by 2020, the assessment of the projected progress of Member States towards their national 2020 targets, set under the ESD as part of the climate and energy package, is based on projection data on emissions not covered by the EU ETS, i.e. 'ESD projections'.

The EEA implements a QA/QC procedure to ensure the timeliness, completeness, consistency, comparability, accuracy and transparency of the projections reported by Member States and used in this report. This procedure is described inElements of the Union system for policies and measures and projections and the quality assurance and control (QA/QC) programme as required under Regulation (EU) No 525/2013(EC, 2015a). If significant discrepancies can be observed between the inventory value for the reference year and that for the projected year, an alignment of the level of projections is performed. Such calibration is performed to match national projections with a common reference year for aggregated EU projections, which is the year 2015. In 2017 no such calibration took place.

Table A1.1 Projected greenhouse gas emissions from Member States, Norway and Switzerland

GHG emission projections (MtCO₂e)	WEM scenario					WAM scenario
EU-28	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	4 315	4 068	3 935	3 825	3 730	4 314	4 034	3 866	3 709	3 570
Energy supply	1 343	1 172	1 119	1 055	988	1 342	1 161	1 087	991	900
Manufacturing and construction industries	469	474	470	459	456	468	469	464	454	445
Transport	902	890	882	886	889	902	881	866	859	849
Residential and commercial	647	609	574	555	540	647	605	567	545	530
Industrial processes and process use	375	373	353	340	336	375	372	350	337	334
Agriculture	437	431	431	431	430	437	428	427	425	424
Waste	142	118	106	99	91	142	117	104	96	88
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	1 786	1 629	1 580	1 518	1 450	1 788	1 619	1 550	1 457	1 360
Effort Sharing Decision	2 515	2 423	2 338	2 289	2 262	2 511	2 399	2 299	2 234	2 191
Land use, land use change and forestry	-291	-234	-254	-233	-244	-292	-235	-251	-229	-240
International aviation	142	149	159	169	179	142	149	159	169	179
Austria	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	78.9	75.4	72.7	69.8	67.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	11.4	9.4	8.7	8.4	7.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	10.5	10.7	10.8	10.9	11.1	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	22.6	22.7	22.5	21.5	20.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	8.9	8.4	7.3	6.4	5.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	16.7	15.5	14.9	14.3	14.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	7.2	7.3	7.3	7.4	7.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	1.7	1.3	1.1	0.9	0.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	29.5	26.2	25.5	25.0	24.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	49.3	49.1	47.2	44.6	42.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-4.8	-7.7	-8.1	-4.6	-4.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Belgium	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	118.1	114.7	111.9	114.1	114.1	118.1	113.9	111.0	111.8	112.1
Energy supply	22.1	19.0	17.8	20.6	20.4	22.1	19.0	17.7	19.1	19.3
Manufacturing and construction industries	13.4	13.8	13.4	13.2	13.1	13.4	13.8	13.4	13.2	13.1
Transport	26.7	27.2	28.1	29.2	30.4	26.7	26.4	27.3	28.4	29.5
Residential and commercial	24.8	23.7	23.1	22.5	21.9	24.8	23.7	23.1	22.5	21.9
Industrial processes and process use	19.7	19.9	19.1	18.6	18.3	19.7	19.9	19.1	18.6	18.3
Agriculture	9.8	9.6	9.2	9.1	9.1	9.8	9.6	9.2	9.1	9.1
Waste	1.7	1.4	1.1	0.9	0.9	1.7	1.4	1.1	0.9	0.9
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	44.8	43.6	42.2	45.0	44.9	44.8	43.6	42.1	43.5	43.7
Effort Sharing Decision	73.3	71.0	69.7	69.2	69.2	73.3	70.2	68.9	68.3	68.3
Land use, land use change and forestry	-3.4	-3.7	-3.7	-3.8	-3.9	-3.4	-3.7	-3.7	-3.8	-3.9
Bulgaria	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	59.1	59.0	55.7	55.5	54.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	31.7	32.6	28.9	28.1	27.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.3	3.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	8.0	7.1	6.6	6.2	6.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	2.1	2.3	3.0	3.9	4.1	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	5.1	4.8	4.9	4.9	4.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	5.0	5.0	5.2	5.4	5.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	4.1	4.0	3.8	3.7	3.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	36.2	37.3	33.8	33.2	32.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	22.8	21.7	21.8	22.2	22.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-10.8	-11.3	-11.8	-12.3	-12.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Croatia	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	23.8	24.0	24.2	24.7	24.5	23.8	22.4	20.9	19.6	17.9
Energy supply	5.7	5.3	5.0	5.0	4.4	5.7	5.0	4.2	3.6	2.7
Manufacturing and construction industries	2.3	2.5	2.5	2.6	2.7	2.3	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.4
Transport	5.6	5.4	5.5	5.6	5.6	5.6	5.4	5.1	4.8	4.3
Residential and commercial	3.5	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.3	3.5	3.4	3.1	2.8	2.6
Industrial processes and process use	2.8	3.0	3.1	3.1	3.2	2.8	2.4	2.5	2.5	2.6
Agriculture	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.7	2.8	2.4	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.5
Waste	1.6	1.9	2.1	2.3	2.4	1.6	1.4	1.2	1.0	0.8
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	8.7	8.7	8.5	8.6	8.2	8.7	8.1	7.3	6.8	6.0
Effort Sharing Decision	15.1	15.2	15.6	16.0	16.3	15.0	14.3	13.5	12.7	11.8
Land use, land use change and forestry	-5.2	-3.1	-2.7	-2.4	-2.3	-5.2	-3.1	-2.7	-2.4	-2.3
Cyprus	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	7.8	6.9	7.1	7.2	7.4	8.2	6.0	6.0	5.8	5.5
Energy supply	2.4	1.7	1.8	2.0	2.1	2.7	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.6
Manufacturing and construction industries	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5
Transport	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.8	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.4
Residential and commercial	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4
Industrial processes and process use	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.4
Agriculture	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
Waste	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.6
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	4.1	3.3	3.5	3.6	3.8	4.4	2.5	2.6	2.4	2.2
Effort Sharing Decision	3.7	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.6	3.5	3.4	3.3
Land use, land use change and forestry	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7
Czech Republic	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	124.8	122.5	113.6	108.8	101.6	124.7	122.1	113.2	107.8	100.0
Energy supply	57.7	54.7	47.2	45.5	42.5	57.7	54.7	47.2	45.5	42.5
Manufacturing and construction industries	10.1	9.7	9.4	9.9	9.9	10.1	9.7	9.3	9.9	9.8
Transport	17.1	18.6	18.1	15.9	12.8	17.1	18.3	17.8	15.6	12.6
Residential and commercial	11.2	11.3	11.0	10.6	10.7	11.2	11.3	11.0	10.6	10.7
Industrial processes and process use	15.3	14.8	14.2	13.2	12.6	15.3	14.8	14.2	13.2	12.6
Agriculture	8.4	8.6	9.1	9.7	9.9	8.2	8.6	9.0	9.3	9.5
Waste	5.1	4.9	4.6	4.1	3.3	5.1	4.9	4.7	3.8	2.4
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	67.2	60.5	53.7	54.4	52.1	67.2	60.5	53.6	54.3	52.0
Effort Sharing Decision	57.6	61.9	59.9	54.4	49.5	57.4	61.6	59.6	53.5	48.0
Land use, land use change and forestry	-6.2	-2.5	-3.5	-3.5	-3.9	-6.2	-3.0	-4.0	-3.9	-4.4
Denmark	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	48.4	44.8	48.7	50.9	49.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	13.6	11.6	15.4	17.7	16.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	3.9	3.5	3.8	4.0	4.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	12.3	12.3	12.2	12.0	11.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	5.0	4.3	4.2	4.2	4.1	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	2.0	1.9	1.8	1.8	1.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	10.4	10.6	10.6	10.7	10.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	15.8	13.5	17.8	20.3	19.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	32.5	31.1	30.8	30.5	29.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	3.5	-1.0	-1.6	-1.3	-2.1	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Estonia	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	18.0	19.3	19.0	17.0	16.4	18.0	18.8	17.9	15.2	14.2
Energy supply	12.3	12.8	12.2	10.0	9.5	12.3	12.5	11.8	9.4	8.7
Manufacturing and construction industries	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.8
Transport	2.3	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.5	2.3	2.1	1.8	1.5	1.3
Residential and commercial	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
Industrial processes and process use	0.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.9	0.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.9
Agriculture	1.3	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.3	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.7
Waste	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	11.9	13.3	12.9	10.9	10.4	11.9	13.1	12.6	10.3	9.7
Effort Sharing Decision	6.1	6.0	6.1	6.1	6.0	6.1	5.7	5.3	4.9	4.6
Land use, land use change and forestry	-2.4	-2.1	-1.9	-1.7	-1.5	-2.4	-2.1	-1.9	-1.7	-1.5
Finland	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	55.7	56.3	49.8	48.8	47.4	55.7	56.2	47.2	44.1	42.4
Energy supply	18.1	19.3	14.2	14.3	13.8	18.1	19.3	13.5	13.2	12.8
Manufacturing and construction industries	7.2	7.0	6.6	6.1	5.7	7.2	7.0	6.5	6.0	5.5
Transport	11.1	10.8	10.3	10.0	10.0	11.1	10.7	8.8	7.2	6.6
Residential and commercial	4.7	4.6	4.4	4.2	4.1	4.7	4.6	4.3	4.0	3.9
Industrial processes and process use	5.9	6.4	6.5	6.6	6.4	5.9	6.4	6.3	6.2	6.3
Agriculture	6.6	6.6	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.6	6.6	6.4	6.4	6.4
Waste	2.2	1.6	1.3	1.1	1.0	2.2	1.6	1.3	1.1	1.0
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	26.1	27.3	22.3	22.2	21.5	26.1	27.3	21.5	21.1	20.5
Effort Sharing Decision	29.4	28.8	27.4	26.4	25.7	29.4	28.7	25.5	22.8	21.8
Land use, land use change and forestry	-8.6	-8.4	-2.0	-1.9	-8.6	-8.6	-8.4	-2.0	-1.9	-8.6
France	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	457.1	430.1	407.5	396.1	390.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	46.3	57.2	57.0	56.1	56.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	50.5	51.9	49.3	48.3	47.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	132.5	116.4	112.8	112.4	114.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	87.6	71.1	63.8	59.4	55.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	44.5	43.3	37.4	34.6	33.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	78.4	75.3	74.3	73.2	72.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	17.4	15.0	12.9	12.1	10.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	99.6	107.2	105.3	104.5	104.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	353.0	318.2	297.4	286.9	280.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-35.8	-51.9	-52.5	-55.7	-58.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Germany	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	895.2	816.4	793.1	734.5	669.3	894.1	805.6	760.2	682.0	592.3
Energy supply	347.4	290.7	302.1	274.7	227.9	346.5	285.0	279.6	239.3	183.3
Manufacturing and construction industries	113.2	113.1	108.1	101.3	97.5	112.8	110.8	106.3	100.2	92.1
Transport	160.9	159.1	152.7	150.0	148.9	160.8	158.4	149.7	139.0	127.7
Residential and commercial	134.4	118.3	102.5	90.5	80.4	134.6	118.6	101.2	88.0	77.3
Industrial processes and process use	61.4	60.3	54.4	47.0	45.1	61.4	60.1	52.4	46.9	44.8
Agriculture	67.0	66.3	66.3	65.1	64.5	67.0	64.2	64.3	63.1	62.5
Waste	10.9	8.6	7.0	5.9	5.0	10.9	8.5	6.6	5.5	4.6
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	444.0	387.7	393.6	360.5	311.3	445.7	384.4	375.3	330.5	269.0
Effort Sharing Decision	449.0	426.5	397.3	371.9	355.9	446.1	419.0	382.8	349.4	321.3
Land use, land use change and forestry	-14.6	29.1	11.2	19.2	18.7	-14.6	29.1	11.2	19.2	18.7
Greece	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	95.7	91.5	93.4	86.0	83.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	42.0	33.5	35.2	26.5	23.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	5.2	5.9	6.3	6.9	7.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	17.1	19.2	18.7	18.2	17.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	6.7	7.9	7.9	8.0	7.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	11.9	11.2	11.4	12.2	12.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	8.3	9.2	9.4	9.6	9.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	4.5	4.7	4.6	4.6	4.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	49.8	42.0	44.5	37.2	35.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	45.5	48.9	48.3	48.3	48.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	3.1	-1.7	-1.2	-0.7	-0.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Hungary	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	61.1	58.0	59.2	58.8	59.5	61.1	57.9	58.9	58.3	58.8
Energy supply	14.7	12.9	13.0	12.1	12.2	14.7	12.9	13.0	12.1	12.2
Manufacturing and construction industries	4.3	4.2	4.4	4.6	4.8	4.3	4.2	4.4	4.6	4.8
Transport	12.2	11.7	13.8	14.9	15.4	12.2	11.7	13.7	14.7	15.1
Residential and commercial	12.1	10.7	9.7	8.8	8.0	12.1	10.7	9.7	8.8	8.0
Industrial processes and process use	7.3	7.0	7.0	7.3	7.9	7.3	7.0	7.0	7.3	7.9
Agriculture	6.7	7.4	7.7	7.9	8.1	6.7	7.4	7.7	7.9	8.1
Waste	3.8	4.0	3.6	3.3	3.0	3.8	4.0	3.4	2.9	2.6
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	19.6	18.9	19.6	19.3	20.1	19.6	18.9	19.6	19.3	20.1
Effort Sharing Decision	41.5	39.1	39.6	39.5	39.3	41.5	39.0	39.3	38.9	38.7
Land use, land use change and forestry	-6.5	-3.4	-3.3	-3.2	-3.1	-6.5	-4.2	-4.8	-3.8	-4.2
Ireland	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	59.9	61.6	65.4	66.5	69.2	59.9	59.1	62.3	62.9	64.8
Energy supply	11.8	10.2	11.6	12.8	14.6	11.8	8.7	9.6	10.5	11.6
Manufacturing and construction industries	4.5	5.3	5.4	5.6	6.2	4.5	5.2	5.2	5.4	6.0
Transport	11.8	13.3	15.1	14.9	14.8	11.8	13.1	14.8	14.7	14.6
Residential and commercial	8.4	8.7	9.1	9.3	9.6	8.4	8.3	8.6	8.6	8.8
Industrial processes and process use	3.1	3.2	3.5	3.7	4.1	3.1	3.2	3.5	3.7	4.1
Agriculture	19.2	20.2	20.1	19.6	19.5	19.2	20.0	20.0	19.4	19.4
Waste	1.0	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.0	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.5
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	16.8	15.9	17.6	19.3	21.9	16.8	14.3	15.5	16.8	18.8
Effort Sharing Decision	43.1	45.6	47.7	47.1	47.3	43.1	44.8	46.8	46.0	46.0
Land use, land use change and forestry	4.3	4.6	6.0	7.5	7.6	4.3	4.6	6.0	7.5	7.6
Italy	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	433.0	425.9	407.1	392.1	384.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	113.4	107.2	100.0	85.5	81.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	52.6	52.5	51.5	52.5	53.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	106.0	104.4	102.7	103.5	102.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	82.2	82.6	79.3	77.7	75.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	30.0	33.5	29.9	30.3	30.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	30.0	30.5	30.6	30.6	30.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	18.8	15.2	13.1	12.0	9.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	156.2	161.0	152.7	140.1	132.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	274.7	262.7	251.9	249.2	248.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-36.2	-24.4	-39.7	-41.5	-43.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Latvia	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	11.4	11.6	11.8	12.2	12.6	11.4	11.4	11.5	11.6	12.0
Energy supply	1.9	1.8	1.5	1.4	1.6	1.9	1.7	1.3	0.9	1.3
Manufacturing and construction industries	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.4	1.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.4	1.4
Transport	3.1	3.0	3.2	3.3	3.4	3.1	3.0	3.2	3.3	3.4
Residential and commercial	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.2	1.2
Industrial processes and process use	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
Agriculture	2.9	3.1	3.3	3.4	3.4	2.9	3.0	3.2	3.3	3.3
Waste	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.7	0.6
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.5	2.8	2.4	2.3	2.2	2.1	2.4
Effort Sharing Decision	9.0	9.2	9.5	9.7	9.8	9.0	9.1	9.3	9.5	9.5
Land use, land use change and forestry	1.5	2.7	2.9	3.4	3.4	1.5	2.7	2.9	3.4	3.4
Lithuania	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	20.2	21.3	21.4	22.1	22.9	19.8	18.9	18.2	17.9	18.2
Energy supply	3.5	3.7	3.7	4.0	4.3	3.2	2.4	2.1	1.9	2.0
Manufacturing and construction industries	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.0	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1
Transport	5.2	5.6	5.9	6.3	6.7	5.1	5.3	5.5	5.7	5.9
Residential and commercial	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.3	1.2	1.1	1.0	0.9
Industrial processes and process use	3.5	3.9	3.8	3.7	3.7	3.5	3.9	3.8	3.7	3.7
Agriculture	4.7	5.0	5.0	5.1	5.2	4.7	5.0	5.0	5.1	5.2
Waste	1.0	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	1.0	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	7.0	7.9	7.9	8.3	8.6	6.7	6.1	5.7	5.5	5.5
Effort Sharing Decision	13.4	13.6	13.7	14.0	14.5	13.3	13.0	12.7	12.7	12.9
Land use, land use change and forestry	-7.9	-8.0	-8.0	-8.0	-8.0	-8.5	-8.7	-8.8	-9.0	-9.2
Luxembourg	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	10.3	9.8	9.7	9.5	9.3	10.3	9.6	9.1	8.5	8.0
Energy supply	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3
Manufacturing and construction industries	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.2	1.2
Transport	5.7	5.6	5.7	5.7	5.6	5.7	5.5	5.1	4.7	4.3
Residential and commercial	1.6	1.5	1.3	1.2	1.1	1.6	1.5	1.3	1.2	1.1
Industrial processes and process use	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4
Agriculture	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
Waste	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	1.7	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.7	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.3
Effort Sharing Decision	8.6	8.4	8.3	8.1	8.0	8.6	8.2	7.7	7.2	6.7
Land use, land use change and forestry	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3
Malta	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	2.2	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	0.9	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Netherlands	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	197.9	172.1	175.5	171.1	159.5	197.9	170.7	172.2	168.3	154.6
Energy supply	72.1	52.3	58.6	57.6	48.9	72.1	52.3	58.2	59.0	48.9
Manufacturing and construction industries	25.0	24.2	24.3	23.2	21.6	25.0	24.0	24.2	22.9	21.3
Transport	31.8	30.4	30.7	30.8	31.5	31.8	30.4	29.8	28.9	29.0
Residential and commercial	36.1	33.2	30.8	29.1	27.0	36.1	31.9	28.9	27.0	24.7
Industrial processes and process use	10.8	10.8	10.4	10.2	10.6	10.8	10.8	10.4	10.2	10.7
Agriculture	18.7	18.8	18.7	18.7	18.6	18.7	18.8	18.7	18.7	18.7
Waste	3.4	2.5	2.0	1.6	1.3	3.4	2.5	2.0	1.6	1.3
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	97.6	77.6	84.2	82.7	73.2	97.6	77.4	83.6	83.7	72.9
Effort Sharing Decision	100.3	94.6	91.3	88.5	86.3	100.3	93.2	88.6	84.5	81.7
Land use, land use change and forestry	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4
Norway	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	53.9	51.8	50.5	48.3	46.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	19.0	18.7	18.5	17.3	16.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	3.8	3.8	3.7	3.6	3.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	13.2	12.7	12.1	11.4	10.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	3.5	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	8.5	8.3	8.0	8.0	7.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	4.5	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	1.3	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	25.5	25.6	25.4	24.3	23.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	27.1	24.8	23.7	22.5	21.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-26.6	-23.5	-22.6	-21.3	-19.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Note: Reported projections not quality checked by EEA. Norway reported GHG projections until 2030; therefore, the time series to year 2035 was extended by linear extrapolation of the trend (2025-2030) by the ETC/ACM.
Poland	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	393.6	386.4	373.7	358.8	358.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	185.2	176.9	163.9	147.6	147.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	30.3	27.6	29.8	30.1	30.1	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	47.7	50.8	51.7	55.8	55.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	56.6	53.2	49.0	45.3	45.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	32.4	34.3	35.2	35.5	35.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	30.6	33.3	34.2	34.8	34.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	10.6	10.2	9.9	9.7	9.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	204.8	196.2	187.2	172.7	172.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	188.6	190.1	186.3	186.0	186.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-26.7	-22.3	-16.8	-13.0	-13.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Portugal	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	70.5	63.0	58.7	55.8	52.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	19.5	13.6	11.1	9.4	7.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	7.0	6.9	6.9	6.8	6.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	15.7	15.0	14.9	14.7	14.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	4.6	4.5	4.6	4.7	4.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	6.1	6.6	5.7	6.0	5.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	8.5	8.1	7.9	7.2	6.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	9.2	8.3	7.6	7.0	6.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	27.2	22.0	19.9	18.5	16.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	42.8	40.5	38.3	36.8	34.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-10.0	-7.6	-7.9	-8.3	-8.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Romania	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	116.5	118.2	119.0	126.3	130.9	116.5	116.3	116.2	122.9	126.0
Energy supply	41.1	38.8	34.7	37.8	38.2	41.1	38.5	34.4	37.6	38.0
Manufacturing and construction industries	12.5	13.0	13.5	14.0	14.8	12.5	12.7	13.3	14.0	14.1
Transport	15.7	17.8	19.3	20.3	20.9	15.7	17.4	18.9	19.9	20.5
Residential and commercial	10.8	11.5	12.3	13.2	13.9	10.8	11.3	12.0	12.5	13.3
Industrial processes and process use	11.9	12.7	13.9	14.8	15.6	11.9	12.7	13.9	14.8	15.6
Agriculture	18.7	19.2	20.6	21.9	23.4	18.7	18.4	19.1	19.9	20.6
Waste	5.8	5.2	4.6	4.3	4.1	5.8	5.2	4.6	4.3	4.0
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	42.3	41.7	39.1	42.9	44.3	42.3	41.5	39.0	42.9	43.9
Effort Sharing Decision	74.2	76.5	79.9	83.4	86.6	74.2	74.7	77.2	79.9	82.1
Land use, land use change and forestry	-18.3	-17.0	-18.1	-16.5	-16.8	-18.3	-16.0	-12.8	-9.9	-10.6
Slovakia	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	41.1	40.3	40.4	40.7	40.9	40.9	38.9	38.5	38.6	38.7
Energy supply	8.9	8.0	7.9	7.7	7.5	8.8	7.5	7.4	7.2	7.0
Manufacturing and construction industries	7.3	7.2	7.2	7.3	7.2	7.2	7.2	7.1	7.2	7.2
Transport	6.7	7.0	7.5	8.0	8.2	6.7	6.8	7.0	7.2	7.3
Residential and commercial	4.7	4.7	4.5	4.4	4.3	4.6	4.3	4.2	4.1	4.0
Industrial processes and process use	9.1	8.9	8.9	9.2	9.6	9.1	8.8	8.8	9.0	9.3
Agriculture	3.0	3.0	2.8	2.7	2.7	3.0	2.8	2.6	2.5	2.5
Waste	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.4
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	21.2	20.2	20.3	20.6	20.8	21.1	19.5	19.6	19.9	20.2
Effort Sharing Decision	19.9	20.2	20.0	20.2	20.1	19.8	19.3	18.9	18.7	18.6
Land use, land use change and forestry	-5.2	-5.3	-4.8	-4.5	-4.7	-5.2	-5.3	-4.8	-4.5	-4.7
Slovenia	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	16.7	17.9	17.2	16.3	15.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	4.8	5.8	5.1	4.3	3.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	1.5	1.7	1.9	2.1	2.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	5.3	5.4	5.4	5.2	4.7	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	1.6	1.4	1.2	1.1	1.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	6.0	7.2	6.7	6.2	5.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	10.7	10.7	10.4	10.1	9.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-5.6	-5.6	-5.6	-5.6	-5.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Spain	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	335.7	333.0	324.4	330.5	341.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	90.8	91.0	76.8	78.2	80.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	41.2	45.8	49.4	47.4	49.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	83.7	87.1	88.8	95.7	102.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	39.8	39.8	41.1	42.7	44.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	30.8	32.5	33.0	32.0	31.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	36.0	28.4	27.7	27.3	26.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	13.5	8.3	7.5	7.3	7.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	136.8	141.0	130.1	128.8	133.2	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	196.3	189.1	191.0	198.1	204.9	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-38.8	-33.0	-30.9	-29.7	-29.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Sweden	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	53.7	49.9	47.7	45.6	43.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Energy supply	9.9	10.3	10.4	10.0	9.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	7.6	7.7	7.2	6.9	6.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Transport	18.2	15.4	14.3	13.6	13.1	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Residential and commercial	3.3	2.7	2.6	2.5	2.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Industrial processes and process use	6.4	6.3	6.2	6.1	6.0	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Agriculture	6.9	6.4	6.1	5.9	5.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Waste	1.4	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.6	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	19.2	19.7	19.7	19.2	18.4	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	34.0	29.7	27.5	26.0	24.8	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	-50.5	-43.3	-44.3	-42.2	-40.5	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Switzerland	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	51.5	47.1	43.5	40.0	NE	50.1	43.4	37.4	31.6	NE
Energy supply	4.7	4.8	5.6	6.3	NE	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	NE
Manufacturing and construction industries	5.9	5.6	5.2	4.8	NE	5.6	5.1	4.4	3.8	NE
Transport	15.0	13.3	11.8	10.2	NE	14.0	11.0	8.9	6.7	NE
Residential and commercial	15.0	13.0	11.0	9.3	NE	15.0	12.5	9.9	7.8	NE
Industrial processes and process use	4.1	3.7	3.3	2.8	NE	4.1	3.6	3.2	2.6	NE
Agriculture	6.1	6.0	6.0	6.0	NE	6.1	5.9	5.7	5.5	NE
Waste	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	NE	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	NE
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Effort Sharing Decision	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Land use, land use change and forestry	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.9	NE	1.3	1.9	2.6	2.5	NE
United Kingdom	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total GHG emissions	508.8	436.2	405.3	403.1	401.7	508.8	427.5	396.6	378.0	366.3
Energy supply	153.8	91.1	74.2	77.4	77.9	153.8	91.1	74.0	60.6	49.1
Manufacturing and construction industries	51.2	52.5	50.5	47.2	44.9	51.2	51.3	49.1	45.8	44.3
Transport	114.8	114.0	110.5	108.0	106.9	114.8	108.6	105.2	103.0	102.3
Residential and commercial	92.6	95.4	93.5	97.4	100.9	92.6	93.4	91.6	95.6	99.7
Industrial processes and process use	33.7	26.6	22.5	19.2	17.4	33.7	26.6	22.4	19.2	17.3
Agriculture	43.9	42.4	41.2	41.2	41.2	43.9	42.4	41.2	41.2	41.2
Waste	18.9	14.2	13.1	12.6	12.4	18.9	14.2	13.1	12.6	12.4
Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)	188.0	124.8	107.1	110.2	109.5	188.4	124.5	106.4	92.8	80.6
Effort Sharing Decision	319.0	309.4	296.1	290.8	289.9	318.7	301.2	288.2	283.1	283.5
Land use, land use change and forestry	-11.7	-12.4	-10.8	-8.4	-6.3	-11.7	-12.4	-10.8	-8.4	-6.3

Notes: Projections for emissions under the Emissions Trading System concern stationary installations only (aviation not included).

Total GHG emissions do not include emissions from international aviation or net emissions or removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).

GHG, greenhouse gas; NE, not estimated; WAM, with additional measures; WEM, with existing measures.

Common reporting format sector mapping: Energy supply = 1A1 + 1B + 1C, Manufacturing and construction industries = 1A2, Transport = 1A3, Residential, commercial and other = 1A4 (including energy-related emissions from Agriculture, forestry and fishing) + 1A5, Industrial processes = 2, Agriculture = 3, Waste = 5, LULUCF = 4

Source: EEA, 2017d.

A1.3 Tracking progress towards targets under the Effort Sharing Decision

The progress of Member States towards their targets under the ESD is assessed by comparing ESD GHG emission levels with the relevant annual targets under the ESD. The assessment does not take into account the possible use of flexibility options as permitted under the ESD and is therefore not an assessment of compliance under the ESD.

The assessment of current progress towards 2015 ESD targets is based on a comparison between ESD GHG emissions and ESD emission targets (AEAs) for 2015:

Member States with historical emissions below their annual ESD emission target are considered to be currently on track towards their targets under the ESD.
In contrast, Member States with historical emissions higher than their ESD emission targets are considered not to be currently on track towards their targets under the ESD.

The assessment of projected progress towards 2020 ESD targets is based on a comparison between projected domestic ESD GHG emissions in the WEM scenario in 2020 and ESD targets (AEAs) for 2020:

Member States with WEM projections lower than their 2020 target are projected to be on track towards their targets.
Member States with WEM projections higher than their 2020 target are projected not to be on track towards their targets.

All the data used for this assessment (ESD GHG emissions and absolute annual ESD emission targets (AEAs)) are consistent with the scope of the EU ETS for the period from 2013 to 2020.

Table A1.2 Current progress towards 2015 and 2016 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emission targets

Member State	2005	2015 progress under the ESD				2016 progress under the ESD (approximated)
	Base-year emissions	ESD target	ESD emissions	Absolute gap	Relative gap	ESD target	ESD emissions	Absolute gap	Relative gap
	MtCO₂e	MtCO₂e	MtCO₂e	MtCO₂e	% (share of 2005 base year)	MtCO₂e	MtCO₂e	MtCO₂e	% (share of 2005 base year)
Austria	56.8	51.5	49.3	2.2	3.9	51.0	50.2	0.8	1.5
Belgium	80.3	75.3	72.7	2.6	3.2	73.8	74.5	-0.7	-0.9
Bulgaria	22.1	27.5	25.4	2.1	9.6	27.7	25.0	2.8	12.6
Croatia	17.4	20.0	15.6	4.4	25.5	20.2	14.3	5.9	34.0
Cyprus	4.2	5.9	4.1	1.9	44.6	5.9	4.2	1.7	41.5
Czech Republic	61.7	64.0	61.3	2.7	4.3	64.7	58.1	6.6	10.6
Denmark	40.1	35.0	32.5	2.5	6.2	34.1	32.3	1.8	4.4
Estonia	5.4	6.3	6.1	0.2	3.7	6.4	5.8	0.5	9.8
Finland	33.9	30.8	29.9	0.9	2.7	30.3	31.3	-1.0	-3.0
France	398.2	384.4	353.0	31.4	7.9	379.4	357.0	22.4	5.6
Germany	477.8	459.1	444.1	15.1	3.2	452.4	450.4	2.0	0.4
Greece	62.6	59.6	45.4	14.2	22.6	59.9	46.5	13.5	21.5
Hungary	48.0	52.6	41.4	11.2	23.3	53.8	42.1	11.6	24.2
Ireland	47.1	44.6	43.0	1.6	3.4	43.5	44.5	-1.0	-2.2
Italy	334.5	304.2	273.3	31.0	9.3	302.3	277.5	24.8	7.4
Latvia	8.5	9.4	9.0	0.4	5.1	9.5	8.9	0.7	7.8
Lithuania	13.3	13.7	13.3	0.4	3.1	14.0	13.0	1.0	7.7
Luxembourg	10.1	9.1	8.6	0.5	5.26	8.9	8.5	0.4	4.21
Malta	1.1	1.2	1.3	-0.1	-12.2	1.2	1.3	-0.2	-16.0
Netherlands	127.8	118.4	101.1	17.3	13.5	116.1	102.7	13.5	10.5
Poland	180.0	196.1	186.8	9.4	5.2	197.4	192.8	4.6	2.5
Portugal	48.6	49.9	40.6	9.2	19.0	50.1	40.4	9.7	20.0
Romania	75.5	79.3	74.6	4.7	6.3	81.1	72.7	8.4	11.2
Slovakia	23.0	24.7	20.1	4.7	20.3	25.1	19.7	5.4	23.4
Slovenia	11.8	12.4	10.7	1.7	14.1	12.4	11.0	1.4	11.6
Spain	236.0	223.7	196.2	27.6	11.7	221.8	197.8	24.0	10.2
Sweden	43.5	40.4	33.9	6.5	15.0	39.8	33.7	6.1	13.9
United Kingdom	417.8	349.7	326.0	23.7	5.7	345.2	324.4	20.8	5.0
EU	2 887	2 749	2 519	230	8.0	2 728	2 503	226	7.8

Notes: Distances to targets (i.e. surpluses of emission allocations compared with existing emissions) are calculated as 'ESD target' – 'ESD GHG emissions'. A positive value indicates a surplus of AEAs (emissions lower than the target) while a negative value indicates a shortfall of AEAs (emissions lower than the target).

See Section A1.2 in Annex 1 with regard to the calculation of '2005 base-year emissions' by the EEA.

Sources: EEA, 2017a, 2017c, 2017f; EU, 2009c, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b, based on Member States' submissions.

Table A1.3 Projected progress towards 2020 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) targets

Member State	2005	2020 ESD target		Projected progress with existing measures by 2020			Projected progress with additional measures by 2020
	Base-year emissions	Relative target to 2020	Absolute target	ESD emissions	Absolute gap	Relative gap	ESD emissions	Absolute gap	Relative gap
	MtCO₂e	%	MtCO₂e	MtCO₂e	MtCO₂e	% (share of 2005 base year)	MtCO₂e	MtCO₂e	% (share of 2005 base year)
Austria	56.8	-16.0	47.8	49.1	-1.4	-2.4	49.1	-1.4	-2.4
Belgium	80.3	-15.0	68.2	71.0	-2.8	-3.5	70.2	-2.0	-2.5
Bulgaria	22.1	20.0	26.5	21.7	4.8	21.7	21.7	4.8	21.7
Croatia	17.4	11.0	19.3	15.2	4.1	23.5	14.3	5.0	28.9
Cyprus	4.2	-5.0	4.0	3.6	0.4	9.5	3.6	0.4	9.5
Czech Republic	61.7	9.0	67.2	61.9	5.3	8.5	61.6	5.6	9.0
Denmark	40.1	-20.0	32.1	31.1	0.9	2.3	31.1	0.9	2.3
Estonia	5.4	11.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	0.3	5.7	0.3	6.1
Finland	33.9	-16.0	28.5	28.8	-0.3	-0.7	28.7	-0.1	-0.4
France	398.2	-14.0	342.5	318.2	24.3	6.1	318.2	24.3	6.1
Germany	477.8	-14.0	410.9	426.5	-15.6	-3.3	419.0	-8.1	-1.7
Greece	62.6	-4.0	60.0	48.9	11.1	17.8	48.9	11.1	17.8
Hungary	48.0	10.0	52.8	39.1	13.7	28.6	39.0	13.8	28.7
Ireland	47.1	-20.0	37.7	45.6	-8.0	-17.0	44.8	-7.2	-15.2
Italy	334.5	-13.0	291.0	262.7	28.3	8.5	262.7	28.3	8.5
Latvia	8.5	17.0	10.0	9.2	0.8	9.2	9.1	0.9	10.5
Lithuania	13.3	15.0	15.2	13.6	1.7	12.6	13.0	2.2	16.9
Luxembourg	10.1	-20.0	8.1	8.4	-0.3	-2.6	8.2	-0.1	-0.9
Malta	1.1	5.0	1.2	1.3	-0.1	-11.5	1.3	-0.1	-11.5
Netherlands	127.8	-16.0	107.4	94.6	12.8	10.0	93.2	14.1	11.0
Poland	180.0	14.0	205.2	190.1	15.1	8.4	190.1	15.1	8.4
Portugal	48.6	1.0	49.1	40.5	8.6	17.6	40.5	8.6	17.7
Romania	75.5	19.0	89.8	76.5	13.3	17.6	74.7	15.1	20.0
Slovakia	23.0	13.0	25.9	20.2	5.8	25.2	19.3	6.6	28.7
Slovenia	11.8	4.0	12.3	10.7	1.6	13.3	10.7	1.6	13.3
Spain	236.0	-10.0	212.4	189.1	23.3	9.9	189.1	23.3	9.9
Sweden	43.5	-17.0	36.1	29.7	6.4	14.8	29.7	6.4	14.8
United Kingdom	417.8	-16.0	350.9	309.4	41.5	9.9	301.2	49.8	11.9
EU-28	2 887.1		2 618.2	2 422.8	195.3	6.8	2-398.8	219.3	7.6

Notes: Distances to targets are calculated as 'ESD target' – 'ESD GHG emissions'. A positive value indicates a surplus of AEAs (emissions lower than the target), while a negative value indicates a shortfall of AEAs (emissions lower than the target).

See Section A1.2 in Annex 1 with regard to the calculation of '2005 base-year emissions' by the EEA.

Sources: EEA, 2017d; EU, 2009c, 2013a, 2013b, based on Member States' submissions.

A1.4 Use of flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Decision

The assessment of progress towards the ESD targets does not take into account the possible use of flexibility options as permitted under the ESD, which can be used by Member States for compliance under the ESD [4]. If these are taken into account, it is apparent that only Malta will need to buy additional AEAs from other Member States or use international project credits to comply in the years 2013 to 2015.

Taking into account WEM emissions, for all countries other than Ireland and Malta the use of the flexibility to carry over AEAs that have not been used in previous years will be sufficient for compliance in the period 2013-2020.

A1.5 Annual and cumulative gaps between emissions and Effort Sharing Decision targets

Table A1.4 Distance between historical or projected Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emissions and annual ESD targets, 2013-2020

Table A 1.4

Notes: A positive value (green shading) indicates a surplus of AEAs (emissions lower than the target), while a negative value (red shading) indicates a shortfall of AEAs (emissions lower than the target). The darker the colour, the larger the gap (red) or the surplus (green).

The calculations do not take into account any possible use of the flexibilities provided under the ESD (such as trading ESD emission allocations or buying international certificates). For this calculation, recalculated annual emission allocations (AEAs) for the years 2017-2020 were considered (EC, 2017h).

The data are based on ESD emissions for 2013, 2014 and 2015 as determined after the 2016 comprehensive review of national GHG inventories, approximated inventory data for 2016 and projections for the period 2017-2020. No national approximated GHG data were available for three Member States (Bulgaria, Cyprus and Romania). For these, the EEA GHG emission proxy was used instead. For the aggregation of projections in the 'with additional measures' (WAM) scenario at EU level, WAM projections of Member States which did not report a WAM scenario have been gap-filled using the 'with existing measures' (WEM) scenario projections.

Sources: EEA, 2017a, 2017c, 2017c, 2017d, 2017f; EU, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b, based on Member States' submissions.

Table A1.5 Cumulative gaps between historical and projected Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emissions and annual ESD targets, 2013-2020

The calculation of the cumulative gap takes only previous years' gaps into account, and does not take into account any possible use of the flexibilities provided under the ESD (such as trading ESD emission allocations or buying international certificates). For this calculation, recalculated annual emission allocations (AEAs) for the years 2017-2020 were considered (EC, 2017h).

Sources: EEA, 2017a, 2017b, 2017c, 2017d, 2017f; EU, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b, based on Member States' submissions.

< Previous: abbreviations	Table of contents	> Next: Annex 2

> For all sources, see the references

Footnotes

[1] The ETC/ACM is a consortium of European institutes contracted by the EEA to carry out specific tasks in the fields of air pollution and climate change mitigation. > Back

[2] The EUTL automatically checks, records and authorises all transactions in the EU ETS. > Back

[3] Following the 2016 comprehensive review of Member States' historical GHG inventory estimates, the 2005 ESD base-year emissions and the AEAs for the years 2017-2020 were recalculated (see b). Therefore, the 2005 ESD base-year emissions used throughout this report differ from the values presented in previous reports. As recent inventory updates lowered emission estimates for most EU Member States, the absolute emission targets correspondingly decreased for most EU Member States. > Back

[4] A Member State can carry forward (i.e. 'borrow') an emission allocation of up to 5 % from the following year, during the period from 2013 to 2019, in order to guarantee compliance. A Member State can also carry over from a past year any surplus emission allocations. It is also possible to use other flexibilities under the ESD, such as buying AEAs from other Member States or using international project credits under the Kyoto Protocol up to a certain limit. > Back

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Topics: Climate change mitigation

Annex 1 — Progress towards greenhouse gas emission targets: data and methodology

A1.1 Reporting requirements for greenhouse gas emissions

A1.2 Data sources for greenhouse gas emissions

A1.2.1 Historical trends in greenhouse gas emissions

A1.2.2 Approximated greenhouse gas emissions for 2016

A1.2.3 Greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union Emissions Trading System since 2005

A1.2.4 Emissions covered under the Effort Sharing Decision

A1.2.5 Long-term historical trends in Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Decision emissions

A1.2.6 Annual emission targets (annual emission allocations) under the Effort Sharing Decision for the period from 2013 to 2020

A1.2.7 The 2005 Effort Sharing Decision base-year emissions

A1.2.8 Projections of greenhouse gas emissions

Table A1.1 Projected greenhouse gas emissions from Member States, Norway and Switzerland

A1.3 Tracking progress towards targets under the Effort Sharing Decision

Table A1.2 Current progress towards 2015 and 2016 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emission targets

Table A1.3 Projected progress towards 2020 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) targets

A1.4 Use of flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Decision

A1.5 Annual and cumulative gaps between emissions and Effort Sharing Decision targets

Table A1.4 Distance between historical or projected Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emissions and annual ESD targets, 2013-2020

Table A1.5 Cumulative gaps between historical and projected Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emissions and annual ESD targets, 2013-2020

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Annex 1 — Progress towards greenhouse gas emission targets: data and methodology

A1.1 Reporting requirements for greenhouse gas emissions

A1.2 Data sources for greenhouse gas emissions

A1.2.1 Historical trends in greenhouse gas emissions

A1.2.2 Approximated greenhouse gas emissions for 2016

A1.2.3 Greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union Emissions Trading System since 2005

A1.2.4 Emissions covered under the Effort Sharing Decision

A1.2.5 Long-term historical trends in Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Decision emissions

A1.2.6 Annual emission targets (annual emission allocations) under the Effort Sharing Decision for the period from 2013 to 2020

A1.2.7 The 2005 Effort Sharing Decision base-year emissions

A1.2.8 Projections of greenhouse gas emissions

Table A1.1 Projected greenhouse gas emissions from Member States, Norway and Switzerland

A1.3 Tracking progress towards targets under the Effort Sharing Decision

Table A1.2 Current progress towards 2015 and 2016 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emission targets

Table A1.3 Projected progress towards 2020 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) targets

A1.4 Use of flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Decision

A1.5 Annual and cumulative gaps between emissions and Effort Sharing Decision targets

Table A1.4 Distance between historical or projected Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emissions and annual ESD targets, 2013-2020

Table A1.5 Cumulative gaps between historical and projected Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emissions and annual ESD targets, 2013-2020

> For all sources, see the references

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