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Based on the analysis of data and information reported by Member States in 2017, as well as additional estimates from the EEA, the EU is on course to meet each of its 2020 targets for GHG emissions, renewable energy and energy efficiency. In fact, the GHG target was already surpassed in 2014 (see Figure 1.1).
In 2015, the EU achieved a reduction of GHG emissions of 22 % below 1990 levels. This reduction exceeds the 20 % reduction target set for 2020. Emissions in 2015 slightly increased compared with 2014, following an exceptionally warm year in almost all parts of Europe that resulted in a markedly low need for heating. Approximated estimates for emissions in 2016 show a decrease back to the level of 2014. Further details are discussed in Chapter 2.
The steady deployment of RES in the EU's energy mix continues. The use of renewable energy continued to increase, standing at 16.7 % of gross final energy consumption in 2015 and getting closer to the 20 % target for 2020. This 2015 RES share is higher than the indicative average level for the years 2015 and 2016 as required by the Renewable Energy Directive (RED). In fact, early EEA estimates for 2016 indicate that the use of energy from renewable sources continued to increase, reaching 16.9 % of gross final energy consumption. The 2020 target could be attained if Member States sustain the pace at which they have deployed renewables so far. However, as we approach 2020, the trajectories for meeting the national targets are becoming steeper, while market barriers still persist in several Member States. Further details are discussed in Chapter 4.
Over the past decade, the trend in the EU's primary energy consumption has been decreasing at a pace that, if sustained until 2020, would be sufficient for the EU to meet its 20 % primary energy target. However, recent increases in primary energy consumption in 2014 and 2015, together with an update of the national indicative target in some MS in their 2017 National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAPs), makes the achievement of the EU 2020 target uncertain [1]. Final energy consumption has been below the 2020 target since 2014, but in 2015 the gap narrowed significantly. Based upon the EEA's approximated estimates for 2016, primary and final energy consumption increased further. This means that, for the EU to remain on track towards its energy efficiency objectives, Member States must reinforce the implementation of current legislation and step up efforts to keep energy consumption in check. Further details are discussed in Chapters 6 and 7.
Sources: Council of the European Union, 2007; EC, 2013c; EEA, 2011, 2017a, 2017b, 2017c, 2017d; EU, 2009d, 2012; Eurostat, 2017b, 2017c, 2017d.
Although the EU and its Member States are making good progress towards their short-term goals on climate and energy, efforts will need to be considerably increased to meet the EU's long-term goal. For 2050, EU leaders have endorsed the objective of reducing Europe's GHG emissions by 80-95 % compared with 1990 levels, to contribute in a fair manner to limiting climate change and holding global warming to below 2 °C [2].
To ensure that the EU is on a cost-effective track towards meeting this long-term objective, EU leaders agreed on a climate and energy policy framework for the EU and endorsed new climate and energy targets for 2030 (European Council, 2014). The 2030 climate and energy framework may be outlined as follows:
According to current projections, further measures will be required to meet the 2030 climate and energy targets:
Even if the 2030 EU targets were met, efforts would still need to be further enhanced in view of the EU's energy and decarbonisation objectives for 2050. After 2030, GHG emissions would need to decline at a much faster pace than anticipated today to reach the 2050 long-term goal, and renewable energy would need to grow even faster before 2050 to attain the minimum levels consistent with the EU's long-term decarbonisation objectives.
The Energy Union Strategy (EC, 2015b), adopted in 2015, aims to ensure that Europe moves towards an integrated, secure, affordable and climate-compatible energy system by 2030. The strategy is structured around five closely related and mutually reinforcing dimensions:
The 2030 targets for climate, RES and energy efficiency, introduced with the EU's 2030 climate and energy policy framework, are an important part of the Energy Union Strategy and can be found under the decarbonisation pillar (2030 targets for climate and renewables) and energy efficiency (2030 target for energy efficiency improvements).
Progress towards the Energy Union objectives is monitored annually through the European Commission's State of the Energy Union reports (EC, 2015e). In November 2016, the European Commission also tabled a legislative proposal aiming to set up a reliable and transparent governance system for the Energy Union and to help ensure that the Union meets its climate and energy goals. The governance system rests on existing building blocks, such as the national climate programmes developed through EU legislation and aligned with the Paris Agreement, and the national plans for renewable energy and energy efficiency, developed under EU energy legislation. Furthermore, the Energy Governance proposal (EC, 2016h) specifically aims to streamline the existing planning, reporting and monitoring obligations of Member States to ensure coherence and adequacy of policies and measures at European Union, regional and national levels. This streamlining effort is expected to ensure the availability of integrated and coherent national plans comprising data and information and integrated projections on GHG efficiency. This includes projections, as well as anticipated and realised effects of policies and measures. Such information will, in turn, improve the robustness of the assessment of progress towards the climate and energy targets presented in this report. It is expected that Member States will provide finalised integrated climate and energy plans by 2019.
Not all Member States are performing well with respect to their national 2020 targets (see Table 1.1). However, the projected overachievements of the majority of Member States offset the slower progress projected in a few Member States.
In total, 17 Member States (Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) are considered on track in 2015 to meet all three of their national climate and energy targets for 2020 [3] (see Table 1.1). Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta and the Netherlands are considered not on track in 2015 in at least one of the three policy domains.However, based on approximated estimates for 2016, only one Member State (Cyprus) will not remain on track, while Estonia will become on track due to decreased primary energy consumption. No Member State underperformed in all three domains.
Strong links exist between energy efficiency improvements, the deployment of renewable energy and reductions in GHG emissions. Some of the GHG emission savings resulting from better energy efficiency and more renewable energy use lead to reductions in industrial sectors falling under the EU ETS, such as when renewable electricity is generated and used (EEA 2017j, forthcoming). Other GHG emission savings contribute primarily to Member States' progress towards their national targets under the ESD, relating only to sectors that are not covered under the EU ETS. This is particularly the case for renewable and energy efficiency policies in the transport and buildings sectors, where energy efficiency improvements and the development of RES have played roles of varying importance from one Member State to another with regard to making progress towards national ESD targets (EEA, 2016). With the EU-level 20 % GHG reduction target accounting both for national achievements and for reductions under the EU ETS, the interactions between GHG emissions, renewable energy and energy efficiency targets are strongest at EU level.
Notes: The percentage values in this table represent the difference between the parameter considered and the relevant target or indicative trajectory. A positive value indicates that a target is met. Further methodological details on how progress is measured are provided in Annexes 1, 2 and 3.
Sources: National information reported by Member States to the EEA, the European Commission and Eurostat. Approximated estimates for the year 2016 were not considered in this table. See Chapters 3, 5 and 7 for further details, as well as Annexes 1, 2 and 3 for information on data and methodology.
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Table of contents | > Next: 2. Progress of the European Union towards its greenhouse gas emission targets |
[1] Together these targets should contribute to achieving the EU's objective of reducing energy consumption by 20 % by 2020. However, a challenge in assessing EU progress is that the aggregation of individual Member States' targets does not add up to a 20 % EU-level reduction in energy consumption by 2020. > Back
[2] Adopted by 195 countries at the Paris Climate Conference (COP 21) in December 2015, the Paris Agreement sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2 °C. Governments agreed in particular to track progress towards the long-term goal through a robust transparency and accountability system. > Back
[3] Under the ESD, the national GHG emission targets for 2020 were set on the basis of Member States' relative wealth (measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita). Less wealthy countries are allowed emission increases in these sectors because their relatively higher economic growth is likely to be accompanied by higher emissions. This is particularly the case for Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Furthermore, five Member States of the same group of countries performing well in all three policy objectives (Croatia, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Romania and Slovenia) have also voluntarily adopted positive limits (i.e. an increase within a specified constraint) on primary energy consumption for 2020. > Back
For references, please go to https://eea.europa.eu./themes/climate/trends-and-projections-in-europe/trends-and-projections-in-europe-2017/overall-progress-towards-the-european or scan the QR code.
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