Annex 3 — Progress towards energy efficiency targets: data and methodology

A3.1 Reporting requirements for energy efficiency/energy consumption

Under Article 3 of the EED (EU, 2012), Member States had to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Depending on country preferences, these targets are based on primary or final energy consumption, primary or final energy savings, or energy intensity. Each national target reflects the specific situation of the Member State that adopted it. In some Member States, the targets may still be subject to change in the coming years.

A3.2 Data sources for energy consumption

The analysis presented in this report is based on several sources relating to energy consumption in Europe.

A3.2.1 Historical trends in primary and final energy consumption

The assessment of progress towards energy efficiency targets is based, for the most part, on information reported by Member States to Eurostat under the Energy Statistics Regulation, and published by Eurostat via its energy statistics database (Eurostat, 2017a, 2017b, 2017c).

A3.2.2 Approximated estimates for primary and final energy consumption in 2016

Early estimates of 2016 primary and final energy consumption were prepared by the EEA (EEA, 2017h; Eurostat, 2017a). National estimates have been provided by Estonia, Germany and Malta.

A3.3.3 National targets on primary and final energy consumption

The EEA's assessment of progress towards energy efficiency targets is based on the targets set under Article 3 of the EED in 2013, including updates as notified by Member States in their 2014 and 2017 NEEAPs or in a separate notification to the European Commission in 2017 (EC, 2017a, 2017g). The EED requires Member States to express their targets in terms of an absolute level of primary energy consumption and final energy consumption in 2020, that allows the EEA to assess progress towards energy efficiency targets consistently across Member States.

A3.3 Tracking progress towards energy efficiency targets

Analysis of the progress made towards achieving energy efficiency targets at national levels involves assessing whether or not the efforts undertaken since 2005 have been sufficient to reduce or limit primary energy consumption at a pace sufficient to meet the 2020 target. This question can be addressed by comparing 2015 (or 2016) levels with a linear trajectory between 2005 and the 2020 national target.

This linear assessment is applied to track energy efficiency progress for the following reasons:

• Unlike RES and GHG emissions, reliable projections and/or targets on energy consumption for interim years until 2020 are not available at Member State level.
• No other indicators/parameters/methodologies with a transparent, well-established and statistically known relationship to primary energy consumption are available.

Therefore, this assessment is based on the comparison between average historical trends and the trends deemed necessary to achieve 2020 targets. To remain consistent with the assessments presented for GHG emissions and RES, the year 2005 was chosen as a single base year, to allow for the comparable assessment of trends across Member States.

For the purpose of cross-country comparison, absolute target levels of primary energy consumption as reported by Member States are taken into account in this assessment. This methodology does not consider the level of ambition of the national target (which varies significantly across the EU), nor does it capture the complexity of the national context (economic development, ability to attract financing for energy efficiency projects, etc.). Since the methodology is based on absolute primary energy consumption values, it may differ from the approach adopted by Member State themselves.

The numeric results of this assessment per Member State are shown in greater detail in Table A3.1 below.

Table A3.1 Member States' progress towards their 2020 energy efficiency targets

Note:  The distance to a trajectory is calculated as 'linear trajectory value' – 'primary energy consumption'. A positive value indicates an energy consumption below the linear trajectory.

Sources: EC, 2017a, 2017g; EEA, 2017g, 2017h; Eurostat, 2017a, 2017b, 2017c.