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External Data Spec

RCP4.5 total sea level rise projections

External Data Spec Published 25 Jul 2014
1 min read
Projected change in relative sea level in 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005 for a medium-low emission scenario (RCP4.5) based on an ensemble of climate models. These projections were calculated for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Working Group I contribution, Chapter 13, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf ).
information.png Provider:
Integrated Climate Data Centre (ICDC)
information.png Dataset URL:
https://sdi.eea.europa.eu/catalogue/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/bebe21b4-15cf-480b-80b7-b6e229676bea
information.png Other comments:

Based on the Figure TS-23.b in the Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC), Chapter 13, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf . The dataset were provided by Marc Carson (ZMAW), who is a contributing author to this chapter.
Gaps in data coverage (of grid cells partly covered by land and partly by sea) were filled using the nearest-neighbour method.

Data was supplied by Mark Carson (ZMAW, Germany), who is a contributing author to Chapter 13 of that IPCC report.

Related content

Produced figures

Figure Projected change in relative sea level, 2081–2100 The map shows the projected change in relative sea level in 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005 for the medium-low emission scenario RCP4.5 based on an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models. Projections consider land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment but not land subsidence due to human activities. No projections are available for the Black Sea.
Figure
Archived
Projected change in relative sea level The map shows the projected change in relative sea level in 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005 for the medium-low emission scenario RCP4.5 based on an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models. Projections consider land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment but not land subsidence due to human activities. No projections are available for the Black Sea.

See also

Used in indicators

Indicator Specification
Archived
Global and European sea level This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea level rise in Europe. Past sea level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The indicator also addresses changes in extreme sea level along the European coast. The following aspects of sea level rise are included: Observed change in global mean sea level, based on two reconstructions from tide gauge measurements (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Spatial trends in absolute sea level across European seas, based on satellite measurements (since 1993) Spatial trends in relative sea level across European seas, based on European tide gauge stations with long time series (since 1970) Projected change in global sea level for different forcing scenarios, including contributions from different sources Projected change in relative sea level across European seas Projected change in the frequency of flooding events along European coasts
Indicator Specification
Archived
Global and European sea level This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components on observed sea-level rise are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) Furthermore, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas. The indicator also presents the contributions to past and future global sea level rise from different sources. Finally, the indicator presents information on observed and projected changes in extreme sea level along European coasts. However, due to insufficient data availability this information cannot be presented by means of figures or maps.
Indicator Specification
Archived
Global and European sea-level rise This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea-level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea-level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea-level rise in Europe; second, relative sea-level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components on observed sea-level rise are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) Furthermore, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas. The indidator also presents the contributions to past and future global sea level rise from different sources. Finally, the indicator presents information on observed and projected changes in extreme sea level along European coasts. However, due to insufficient data availability this information cannot be presented by means of figures or maps.
Indicator Specification
Archived
Global and European sea-level rise This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea-level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea-level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea-level rise in Europe; second, relative sea-level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components on observed sea-level rise are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) In addition, this indicator informs about the contributions from various sources to the observed global sea level rise (since 1901). Finally, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas.

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For references, please go to https://eea.europa.eu./data-and-maps/data/external/ar5-sea-level-rise-projections or scan the QR code.

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