Methane emissions in the EU: the key to immediate action on climate change

Figure 4. Trends in methane emissions in the energy sector in the EU between 1990 and 2020

Source: EEA methane data viewer. More detailed greenhouse gas inventory data, including for other EEA member countries can be found in the EEA GHG data viewer.

Recent events at the two Nord Stream pipelines carrying natural gas from Russia to Germany resulted in large amounts of CH₄ being released into the atmosphere in the exclusive economic zones of Denmark and Sweden. These events are beyond the control of climate policies, although they affect EU and Member State’s emissions and annual national emission targets. Based on the volume of gas in the leaking pipelines, the first estimates of the amount of CH₄ released were 14.6Mt of CO₂e (Danish Energy Agency, 2022). The CO₂ equivalent emissions are based on a 100-year global warming potential (GWP) of 28 (from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report).

These first estimates are uncertain. It is not clear that all the natural gas has been released into the atmosphere, and the estimates also assume that the natural gas in the pipelines is pure CH₄. For these reasons, the estimates reported could represent the maximum leakage. Noting that an accurate estimation is not possible right now, and that the actual leakage could be lower (Dinneen, 2022), the amount of CH₄ gas already leaked is very significant at national and EU levels. Based on the 2022 EU GHG inventory submission to the UNFCCC, the estimated leakage reported, and occurring in just a few days, would correspond to about 90% of all fugitive emissions from natural gas operations in the EU in 2020 (or 0.5% of total EU net GHG emissions).

Current GHG projections reported by Member States until 2040 indicate that total CH₄ emissions in the energy sector will continue decreasing in the future as countries implement EU and national legislation^[6]. The EU has a policy framework in place to reduce GHG emissions (which include CH₄), via the Effort Sharing Regulation, for the sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and where national binding targets apply. The non-ETS energy sectors include residential and commercial buildings, transport (except aviation), and coal, oil and gas operations. The specific policies and measures at Member State level to achieve reductions in GHG emissions are available from the EEA’s policies and measures database.

Specifically, CH₄ emissions should decrease further as countries implement the EU methane strategy (covering the energy, agriculture and waste sectors) and, once agreed, the EU Methane Regulation(applicable to the energy sector).

© Designed by TheDigitalArtist on pixabay.com

Methane in the agriculture sector in the EU

Based on the 2022 EU GHG inventory, the largest source of CH₄ in the agriculture sector is the enteric fermentation (digestion process in ruminants) and management of livestock manure, particularly of cattle (77%), sheep (7%) and swine (10%). These three sources represented 94% of the 206Mt CH₄ emissions in CO₂e in the agriculture sector in 2020. Enteric fermentation from cattle alone accounted for 69% of CH₄ emissions in the agriculture sector in the EU in 2020.

CH₄ emissions in the sector decreased in the 1990s and 2000s, but have been rather stable since 2010 and even increased around 2015 (Figure 5). The common agriculture policy on market support had a significant impact on reducing agricultural emissions from enteric fermentation through the milk quota system^[8], which led to a strong reduction in dairy cattle numbers to compensate for increasing productivity. Basically, controlling overproduction through milk quotas in the EU reduced the economic returns from cattle production and incentivised higher milk yields to sustain production levels with fewer cattle (UNFCCC, 2017). The EU’s health check of the common agricultural policy in 2009 led to the abolition of the milk quota system in 2015. A key reason for its abolition was that EU producers were prevented from responding to the growing demand for dairy products. Although CH₄ emissions from enteric fermentation in dairy cattle decreased substantially in the EU between 1990 and 2010 (-27.9Mt CO₂e), there was a net increase between 2010 and 2020 (+2.1Mt CO₂e).

Figure 5. Trends in methane emissions in the agriculture sector in the EU between 1990 and 2020

Source: EEA methane data viewer. More detailed greenhouse gas inventory data, including for other EEA member countries can be found in the EEA GHG data viewer.

The small net increase in CH₄ emissions from dairy cattle since 2010 could be explained by several factors. Based on the common reporting tables underpinning the 2022 EU GHG inventory submission to the UNFCCC, the gross energy intake, the implied CH₄ emission factor and the milk yield per cow increased between 2010 and 2020, albeit less rapidly than between 1990 and 2010. The population of dairy cattle also declined in the past 10 years, but substantially less rapidly than during the first 20 years since 1990. In addition, total milk production in the EU increased significantly between 2010 and 2020, compared with the period 1990-2010 when it declined. Overall, emission trends have been positive since 1990, and CH₄ emissions have decreased substantially for dairy cattle and for the agriculture sector as a whole – even if the current and projected trends remain less encouraging.

Changes in the agricultural management of manures, including the production of biogas in anaerobic digesters, and using the recovered CH₄ (as biogas or biomethane) in the energy sector for producing heat and electricity has also resulted in decreased CH₄ emissions. This is one measure that can improve the circularity of our production and consumption and help mitigate emissions in the future.

Table 1. Population, implied emission factors and emissions from various types of animals in Europe in 1990 and 2020

Note: The geographical coverage in this table includes the 27 EU Member States, Iceland and the United Kingdom. Emissions of CH₄ can be converted to CO₂e by multiplying emissions by the 100-year GWP of CH₄ from the IPCC’s fourth assessment report, currently used for reporting to the UNFCCC, which is 25.

Source: EEA (2022c).

Table 1 shows the population, emission factors and emissions for different animal types in Europe in 1990 and 2020. Although there are fewer dairy cattle than beef cattle in Europe, the numbers show that the dairy herd emits more CH₄ than the non-dairy herd. Per head, dairy cattle emit almost three times as much CH₄ as non-dairy cattle. The emission factor (kg CH₄/head/year) has also increased markedly since 1990 but much less than milk production per animal. There are also significant CH₄ (and nitrous oxide, N₂O) emissions from manure management associated with these types of animals that are not included in this table.

Assuming that production reflects and matches demand for consumption, Table 1 also suggests that larger reductions in CH₄ emissions per kilogram produced would be achieved by reducing dairy consumption rather than reducing beef consumption. Technological advances in animal feed to reduce CH₄ production from ruminants could further provide an alternative and/or additional means of mitigating CH₄ emissions.

In addition to advances in and implementation of CH₄-reducing practices and technologies in agricultural production, there are possibilities available to consumers regarding food choices that can also contribute to lower methane emissions.

Emissions from agriculture are covered by national emission targets under the Effort Sharing legislation. Although the available projections precede the adoption of key legislation and legislative proposals, current GHG projections reported by Member States indicate that total CH₄ emissions in the agriculture sector are not expected to decrease up to 2030 (EEA, 2022b). The existing and planned policies and measures in place do not contribute sufficiently to achieving the reductions in GHG emissions needed to meet the EU’s 2030 target and 2050 climate neutrality objective.

The EU methane strategy proposes several policies and measures that countries should implement to accelerate the reduction in CH₄ emissions in the medium term. For instance, support to accelerate the development of the biogas market from sustainable sources should have a positive effect by reducing emissions from manure management, provided that biogas facilities are well managed. Another key proposal is promoting best practices and technologies and improving herd housing management, feeding and breeding. Some CH₄-related policies and measures are interlinked with the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, such as the link between cattle grazing and carbon sequestration in soils.

The EU common agricultural policy should also play an important role in reducing GHG emissions, including CH₄. One of the 10 key objectives of the new policy for the period 2023-2027 is to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, by means of reducing GHG emissions, enhancing carbon sequestration and promoting sustainable energy. Furthermore, with the European Green Deal, the environment and climate dimensions of agricultural policy are to be strengthened.

Finally, in 2022, the Commission adopted proposals for revised EU measures to address pollution from large industrial installations as part of the revision of the EU Industrial Emissions Directive. The key objectives are to progress towards a zero pollution environment in the EU and to support climate, energy and circular economy policies. The proposal includes CH₄ from intensive rearing of livestock. For example, all cattle, pig and poultry farms with over 150 livestock units, which are responsible for 43% of CH₄ emissions from livestock in the EU, would fall under the scope of the directive.

© Designed by Katie Rodriguez on unsplash.com

Methane in the waste sector in the EU

Based on the latest EU GHG inventory submission to the UNFCCC, the largest sources of methane (CH₄) in the waste sector are solid waste disposal (80%), domestic and industrial wastewater treatment and discharge (15%) and, to a lesser extent, biological treatment of solid waste (4%). These three sources represented almost 100% of the 101Mt CH₄ emissions in CO₂e in the waste sector in 2020.

Emissions from solid waste disposal and wastewater treatment have decreased substantially since 1990 in the waste sector. The amount of municipal waste that is landfilled decreased strongly and other waste treatment methods, such as reusing and recycling, biological treatment of waste and waste incineration with energy recovery (for heat and electricity), have gained importance in EU Member States. The reductions in emissions are partly due to the early implementation of the EU Landfill Directive, which requires Member States to reduce the amount of untreated biodegradable waste disposed of in landfills and to install landfill gas recovery at all new sites. This has intensified separate collection, recycling and pre-treatment of waste, as well as landfill gas recovery by Member States, and led to significant reductions in CH₄ emissions from solid waste disposal of biodegradable waste on land (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Trends in methane emissions in the waste sector in the EU between 1990 and 2020

Source: EEA methane data viewer. More detailed greenhouse gas inventory data, including for other EEA member countries can be found in the EEA GHG data viewer.

GHG projections reported by Member States indicate that total CH₄ emissions will continue decreasing, and at an even faster rate (-2.4% annually until 2030) than in the last 30 years since 1990.

In addition to the national binding targets from the EU Effort Sharing Regulation, the EU methane strategy also proposes several policies and measures to accelerate the reduction in CH₄ emissions. These include reviews of the EU Landfill Directive, Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive and Sewage Sludge Directive.

The EU Landfill Directive, first adopted in 1999, introduces restrictions on landfilling of all waste suitable for recycling or other material or energy recovery, limits the share of municipal waste landfilled, and requires landfill operators to manage landfill gas by either using it for energy or flaring it. The directive was amended in 2018 to introduce an obligation to collect biodegradable waste separately by 2024 and set a new target of a maximum 10% landfilling of waste by 2035. CH₄ emissions should decrease further as a result of these changes, and a new revision of the directive is anticipated in 2024. A Commission Communication setting out stronger enforcement of the waste legislation should also lead to additional reductions in CH₄ emissions.

Finally, the Waste Framework Directive, which provides the legal framework at EU level for treating and managing waste, introduces a waste hierarchy for managing and preventing waste. This hierarchy includes, in order of priority, prevention, reuse, recycling, recovery and disposal. The waste hierarchy should encourage options that deliver the best overall environmental outcomes and has and will continue to result in substantial reductions in CH₄ emissions in the EU.

International activities linked to methane

The increase in methane (CH₄) concentrations is a global issue, and, although ambitious EU and Member States’ policies to curb CH₄ emissions contribute to mitigating climate change, their impact alone will not be sufficient to avoid exceeding the 1.5°C global rise in temperature goal. This is because the EU accounts for only 7% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and for 4-5% of global CH₄ emissions^[9].

Several international activities are linked to global efforts to mitigate GHG emissions, including CH₄ emissions.

• For example, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and its Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement provide a framework for reducing GHG emissions. The legally binding Paris Agreement is an international treaty adopted by 196 Parties to limit global warming to well below 2°C and make efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, compared with pre-industrial levels. In their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), Parties to the Paris Agreement set out what action they will take to reduce their GHG emissions, and also actions to build resilience to adapt to the impacts of climate change. However, not all Parties include reductions in CH₄ emissions as part of their current NDCs.
• The Paris Agreement also invites Parties to formulate and report long-term low-GHG emission development strategies; this was made more concrete at COP26 (the Climate Change Conference) in Glasgow by calling on Parties to transition to net zero emissions by or around mid-century. Countries were also invited to consider further opportunities to reduce non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions (CH₄ being the largest). COP27 at Sharm El-Sheikh reiterated its invitation to Parties to consider further actions to reduce by 2030 non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions, including methane.
• Another key initiative is the Global Methane Pledge, which was launched at COP26 in Glasgow. Participating countries agree to take voluntary action to collectively reduce CH₄ emissions by at least 30% by 2030 compared with 2020 levels. However, at the date of publication of this briefing, major CH₄ polluters, such as China, India and Russia, are not part of this initiative.
• One of the key initiatives of the EU methane strategy is the establishment of satellite-based detection (Sentinel-5) of super-emitters through Europe’s Copernicus programme. It is expected that Copernicus will contribute to an EU coordinated capability for detecting and monitoring global super-emitters, which can support global efforts to mitigate CH₄ emissions by guiding leak detection and repair.
• Another relevant initiative by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) is the International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO). The observatory aims to reduce CH₄ emissions by interlinking data on research, reporting and implementation, and to establish a global public record of verified CH₄ emissions. It provides near-real-time data on the location and size of CH₄ emissions that will support targeted mitigation actions.
• Finally, the Climate and Clean Air Coalition  (CCAC) is a voluntary partnership of governments, intergovernmental organisations, scientific institutions, businesses and civil society with the aim of improving air quality and mitigating climate change through actions that reduce short-lived climate pollutants. The focus of these reductions is on CH₄, black carbon and hydrofluorocarbons. This partnership is a good example of initiatives that aim to maximise the co-benefits of policies to reduce air pollution and mitigate climate change.