Figure

Observed annual mean temperature trend from 1960 to 2020 (left panel) and projected 21st century temperature change under different SSP scenarios (right panels) in Europe

Figure Created 13 Dec 2021 Published 15 Dec 2021 Last modified 15 Jun 2022

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Topics: Climate change adaptation

This page was archived on 15 Jun 2022 with reason: Other (New version data-and-maps/figures/observed-annual-mean-temperature-trend-1 was published)

Left panel: Observed annual mean temperature change from 1960 to 2020 calculated from the E-OBS dataset. Right pannels: - Left map: Projected temperature change between the WMO reference period 1981–2010 and the end of the 21st century (period 2081–2100) under the scenario SSP1-2.6. - Right map: Projected temperature change between the WMO reference period 1981–2010 and the end of the 21st century (period 2081–2100) under the scenario SSP5-8.5.

https://eea.europa.eu./data-and-maps/figures/observed-annual-mean-temperature-trend/fig02-129869-csi012-clim001-v3.eps/image_large

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Methodology:

Left panel: Figure shows the linear trend of mean daily temperature over the period 1960-2020. Grid cells with a trend smaller than 0.1 °C/decade are indicated with a cross symbol.

Right panels:

Left map: Data are based on the ensemble mean of 32 global CMIP6 models, results are interpolated onto the CMIP6 reference grid of 1 x 1 degrees using a conservative method, temporal aggregation is carried out by calculating mean values from daily data for the whole period. Data shown in the map are calculated for each grid cell as the arithmetic difference between historical projection 1981–2010 and future projection for the period 2081–2100 using the SSP1-2.6 scenario.
Right map: Data are based on the ensemble mean of 34 global CMIP6 models, results are interpolated onto the CMIP6 reference grid of 1 x 1 degrees using a conservative method, temporal aggregation is carried out by calculating mean values from daily data for the whole period. Data shown in the map are calculated for each grid cell as the arithmetic difference between historical projection 1981–2010 and future projection for the period 2081–2100 using the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
Both maps: SSP scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are the new scenarios representing different socio-economic developments as well as different pathways of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Five naratives describes different path of economy and society (SSP1-SSP5) from thesustainable and “green” pathway (SSP1) to fossil-fueled development and integration of global markets (SSP5). Individual scenarios are followed by two numerals indicating the additional radiative forcing achieved by the year 2100 in units of of watts per square meter.

Units:

Right panel: °C/decade

Left panels: °C

Rights:

EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (https://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: European Climate Assessment & Dataset.

Owners:

European Climate Assessment & Dataset

Figure type:

Map

Additional information

Right panels: Data of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The data of this modeling initiative are used in the IPCC AR6 report.