Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration throughout Europe

Bird breeding and spring migration phenology have advanced in response to climate change, but the effects differ between sites. Here, we examine the geographical variation in layingdate trends in a short-distance migrant, the European starling Sturnus vulgaris, and a long-distance migrant, the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca.  We model the trend in laying date for these 2 species — between 1980 and 2004 for most of their European breeding areas—by combining geographical variation in mean laying date, the effect of temperature on laying date, and spatial variation in temperature change.