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Změny klimatu zasáhnou Evropu více, než se původně předpokládalo

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Novinky Publikováno 07.08.2015 Poslední změna 08.05.2017
Photo: © Arthur Girling/EEA
Období 2004–2013 bylo v Evropě nejteplejší v dosavadní historii pozorování. Pokračující změnu klimatu dokládají i další pozorované trendy v klimatickém systému, jako je oteplování oceánů, zvyšování hladiny oceánů a naopak zřetelný pokles rozsahu pevninského a mořského zalednění Arktidy i horských ledovců.

Evropská agentura pro životní prostředí (EEA) provedla aktualizaci celkem 13 indikátorů, které podrobně popisují pozorované změny klimatu a nabízí i projekce změn do budoucnosti založené na nejnovějších poznatcích a výpočtech klimatických modelů.

Tyto prognózy jsou oproti přechozím odhadům ještě více alarmující, neboť naznačují akceleraci nepříznivých procesů v klimatickém systému. Jak naznačují modely, bude zvyšování mořské hladiny oproti původním předpokladům rychlejší, a pokud bude produkce emisí skleníkových plynů setrvávat na současných hodnotách, bude již před polovinou 21. století na konci léta Severní ledový oceán téměř bez ledu.

Aktualizované hodnocení indikátorů, které je k dispozici online na webových stránkách EEA, vychází zejména z 1. části Páté hodnotící zprávy Mezivládního panelu pro změnu klimatu (IPCC) věnované fyzikální podstatě změny klimatu a je doplněno nejnovějšími trendy a projekcemi se zaměřením na evropský kontinent. Informace o tom, jaké kroky podnikají evropské země a města k přizpůsobení se změnám klimatu poskytuje online webový portál Climate-ADAPT. Portál představuje jak politická rozhodnutí a tvorbu adaptačních strategií a akčních plánů, ale na příkladových studiích ukazuje již v praxi realizovaná opatření.

 

Translated by cenia

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Indicator Assessment
Archived
Mean precipitation Precipitation trends since 1960 show an increase by up to 70 mm per decade in north-eastern and north-western Europe, in particular in winter, and a decrease by up to 90 mm per decade in some parts of southern Europe, in particular in summer. Projected changes in precipitation vary substantially across regions and seasons. Annual precipitation is generally projected to increase in northern Europe and to decrease in southern Europe. Projected decrease is the strongest in southern Europe in summer.
Indicator Assessment
Archived
Global and European temperature Global Three independent long records of global average near-surface (land and ocean) annual temperature show that the decade between 2004 and 2013 was 0.75 °C to 0.81 °C warmer than the pre-industrial average. The rate of change in global average temperature has been close to the indicative limit of 0.2°C per decade in recent decades. Variations of global mean near-surface temperature on decadal time scales are strongly influenced by natural factors. Over the last 10-15 years global near-surface temperature rise has been slower than in previous decades. This recent slow-down in surface warming is due in roughly equal measure to reduced radiative forcing from natural factors (volcanic eruptions and solar activity) and to a cooling contribution from internal variability within the climate system (the redistribution of heat to the deeper ocean). The Arctic region has warmed significantly more rapidly than the global mean, and this pattern is projected to continue into the future. The best estimate for further rises in global average temperature over this century is from 1.0 to 3.7°C above the period 1971-2000 for the lowest and highest representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The uncertainty ranges for the lowest and highest RCP are 0.3–1.7°C and 2.6–4.8°C, respectively. The EU and UNFCCC target of limiting global average temperature increase to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial levels is projected to be exceeded between 2042 and 2050 by the three highest of the four IPCC scenarios (RCPs). Europe Annual average temperature across the European land areas has warmed more than global average temperature, and slightly more than global land temperature. The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2004–2013) is 1.3°C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to continue increasing by more than global average temperature over the rest of this century, by around 2.4 °C and 4.1 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Extremes of cold have become less frequent in Europe while warm extremes have become more frequent. Since 1880 the average length of summer heat waves over western Europe doubled and the frequency of hot days almost tripled.
Indicator Assessment
Archived
Ocean heat content The warming of the World Ocean accounts for approximately 93 % of the warming of the Earth system during the last six decades. Warming of the upper (0–700 m) ocean accounted for about 64% of the total heat uptake. An increasing trend in the heat content in the uppermost 700 m depth of the World Ocean is evident over the last six decades. Recent observations show substantial warming also of the deeper ocean (between 700 m and 2 000 m depth and below 3000 m depth). Further warming of the oceans is expected with projected climate change. The amount of warming is strongly dependent on the emissions scenario.
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Global and European sea-level rise The rate of global mean sea level rise has accelerated during the last two centuries. Tide gauges show that global mean sea level rose at a rate of around 1.7 mm/year over the 20 th century, but there have been significant decadal variations around this value. Satellite measurements show a rate of global mean sea-level rise of around 3.2 mm/year over the last two decades. Global mean sea level rise during the 21 st century will likely occur at a higher rate than during 1971–2010. Process-based models project a rise in 2081–2100, compared to 1986–2005, that is likely to be in the range 0.26–0.54 m for a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 0.45–0.81 m for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). There is low confidence in the projections of semi-empirical models, which project a rise up to twice as large as the process-based models. Available process-based models indicate global mean sea level rise by 2300 to be less than 1 m for greenhouse gas concentrations that peak and decline and do not exceed 500 ppm CO 2 -equivalent but 1–3 m for concentrations above 700 ppm CO 2 -equivalent. Absolute sea level is not rising uniformly at all locations, with some locations experiencing much greater than average rise. Coastal impacts also depend on the vertical movement of the land, which can either add to or subtract from climate-induced sea-level change, depending on the particular location.
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Arctic and Baltic Sea ice The extent and volume of the Arctic Sea ice has declined rapidly since global data became available in 1980, especially in summer. Record low sea ice cover in September 2007, 2011 and 2012 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1980s. In September 2013 ice cover was well below the average for 1981-2010.  Over the period 1979–2013, the Arctic has lost on average 43 000 km 2 of sea ice per year in winter and 95 000 km 2 per year at the end of summer. The decline in summer sea ice appears to have accelerated since 1999. The maximum sea ice extent in the Baltic Sea has been decreasing most of the time since about 1800. The decrease appears to have accelerated since the 1980s but the large interannual variability prohibits a clear assessment as to whether this increase is statistically significant. Arctic Sea ice is projected to continue to shrink and thin all year round. For high greenhouse gas emissions, a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in September is likely before mid-century. There will still be substantial ice in winter. Baltic Sea ice, in particular the extent of the maximal cover, is projected to continue to shrink.
Indicator Assessment
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Ocean acidification Surface-ocean pH has declined from 8.2 to below 8.1 over the industrial era due to the growth of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This decline corresponds to an increase in oceanic acidity of 26%. Observed reductions in surface-water pH are nearly identical across the global ocean and throughout Europe’s seas. Ocean acidification in recent decades is occurring a hundred times faster than during past natural events over the last 55 million years. Ocean acidification already reaches into the deep ocean, particularly in the high latitudes. Models consistently project further ocean acidification worldwide. Surface ocean pH is projected to decrease to values between 8.05 and 7.75 by the end of 21 st century depending on future CO 2 emission levels. The largest projected decline represents more than a doubling in acidity. Ocean acidification may affect many marine organisms within the next 20 years and could alter marine ecosystems and fisheries.
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Permafrost In the past 10–20 years European permafrost has shown a general warming trend, with greatest warming in the cold permafrost in Svalbard and Scandinavia. The depth of seasonal thaw has increased at several European permafrost sites. Some sites show great interannual variability, which reflects the complex interaction between the atmospheric conditions and local snow and ground characteristics. Recent projections agree on substantial near-surface permafrost degradation resulting in thaw depth deepening (i.e. permafrost degeneration) over much of the permafrost area. Warming and thawing of permafrost is expected to increase the risk of rock falls, debris flows and ground subsidence. Thawing of permafrost also affects biodiversity and can contribute to climate change through release of CO 2 and CH 4 from Arctic permafrost areas.
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Sea surface temperature Sea surface temperature in European seas has been increasing in the past century at a faster rate than the global ocean. The rate of increase in sea surface temperature in all European seas during the past 25 years is the largest ever measured in any 25-year period. It has been several times faster than the average rate of increase during the past century, and it is also much faster than the global ocean. Globally averaged sea surface temperature is projected to continue to increase although more slowly than atmospheric temperature. 
Indicator Assessment
Archived
Glaciers The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume since 1850, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is expected to continue in the future. The volume of European glaciers has been estimated to decline between 22 and 84 % compared to the current situation by 2100 under a moderate greenhouse gas forcing scenario and between 38 and 89% under a high forcing scenario. Glacier retreat has contributed to global sea-level rise with about 0.8 mm per year in 2005-2009. It also affects freshwater supply and run off regimes, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. Furthermore it may cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
Indicator Assessment
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Snow cover Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere has declined significantly over the past 90 years, with most of the reductions occurring since 1980. Snow cover extent has decreased by 7% on average in March and April and by 53% in June over the 1967–2012 period. Snow mass in the Northern hemisphere has decreased by 7 % in March from 1982 to 2009; snow mass in Europe has decreased even more, but with large inter-annual variation. Model simulations project widespread reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover in Europe over the 21st century. Changes in snow cover affect the Earth’s surface reflectivity, water resources, the flora and fauna and their ecology, agriculture, forestry, tourism, snow sports, transport and power generation.
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Greenland ice sheet The Greenland ice sheet is the largest body of ice in the Northern Hemisphere and plays an important role in the global climate system. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet has contributed about one fifth to global sea level rise in the last decade. The Greenland ice sheet has lost ice during the last two decades at an increasing rate. The average ice loss increased from 34 billion tonnes per year (sea-level equivalent 0.09 mm per year) over the period 1992-2001 to 215 billion tonnes per year (0.59 mm per year) over the period 2002-2011. Model projections suggest further declines of the Greenland ice sheet in the future but the uncertainties are large. The upper bounds for the sea-level contribution during the 21 st century and the 3 rd millennium (until the year 3000) are 16 cm and 4-5 m, respectively.
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Storm surges Several large storm surge events have caused loss of life and damage to property in Europe during the past century. The most notable event occurred in 1953 when more than 2 000 people were killed, and there was massive damage to property around the coastline of the southern North Sea. There is strong evidence that extreme coastal water levels have increased at many locations around the European coastline. However, this appears to be predominantly due to increases in time mean local sea level at most locations rather than to changes in storm activity. Large natural variability in extreme coastal sea levels makes detecting long-term changes in trends difficult in the absence of good quality long observational records. Multi-decadal projections of changes in storms and storm surges for the European region continue to have high uncertainty. The most recent studies indicate that increases in extreme coastal water levels will likely be dominated by increases in local relative mean sea level, with changes in the meteorologically-driven surge component being less important at most locations.
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Storms Storm location, frequency and intensity show considerable variability across Europe over the past century, such that no clear trends are apparent. A recent reanalysis suggests that storminess has increased over the past century in northern and north-western Europe but this finding is not yet robust. Climate change projections from a recent climate model ensemble study show a small increase in extreme wind speeds over northern parts of central and western Europe, and a decrease in southern Europe. The results of studies into changes in winter storm tracks show no clear signal.

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For references, please go to https://eea.europa.eu./cs/highlights/zmeny-klimatu-zasahnou-evropu-vice or scan the QR code.

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