Total greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe

Indicator definition

The present indicator (CSI010) presents total and sectoral trends of anthropogenic GHG emissions in Europe from 1990 onwards and assesses the progress of the EU, individual Member States and other EEA countries towards their international and internal EU GHG targets.

The indicator provides information on emissions from the main anthropogenic GHG sources, distributed by the main emitting sectors and based on IPCC nomenclature. In addition, the indicator shows past and projected GHG emissions in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and non-ETS/Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) sectors, in accordance with the EU legal scheme. As a general rule, emissions from international aviation are included in the totals presented in the indicator, consistent with the EU legal scheme ('Domestic scope'). These emissions are not covered by the Kyoto Protocol (KP), in accordance with the UNFCCC guidelines, and therefore they are excluded from the totals under the EU's international reporting of GHG inventories ('International scope'). Unless otherwise mentioned, the indicator does not cover emissions from international shipping. Net land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions and/or removals, and CO₂ emissions from the combustion of biomass (including biofuels in transport) are not included in national GHG emission totals, according to UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines.

The indicator covers all 28 Member States of the European Union. The Member States' geographical coverage of the indicator is consistent with the EU coverage under the Kyoto Protocol. When available, information concerning other EEA member countries is also included. Especially when referring to the second commitment period of the KP, the European aggregates are presented for the 28 Member States and Iceland, since the European Union, its Member States and Iceland have agreed to fulfill their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments jointly.

The indicator covers annual emissions since 1990.

Units

This indicator expresses GHG emissions in 'million tonnes CO₂-equivalent' (Mt CO₂e)

Policy context and targets

Context description

The UNFCCC sets an ultimate objective of stabilising GHG concentrations 'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.' It also requires precise and regularly updated inventories of GHGs from industrialised countries. 

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCCC, which sets binding targets for industrialised countries and the European Union for reducing GHGs. It runs over two commitment periods; the first started in 2008 and ended in 2012, whereas the second started in 2013 and will end in 2020. The EU and its Member States have signed up to the Protocol. 

The European Union, as a party to the UNFCCC and to the Protocol, reports annually on the GHG emissions within the area covered by its Member States. The Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory and inventory report, officially submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat, is prepared on behalf of the European Commission (DG CLIMA) by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Air and Climate Mitigation (ETC/ACM), supported by the Joint Research Centre and Eurostat.

In 2007, EU leaders committed to a 20 % reduction in EU GHG emissions by 2020 on the basis of 1990 GHG emissions (or a 14 % decrease in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2020). The EU has also committed to increasing the share of renewable energy in the EU's final energy consumption to 20 % (with a minimum 10 % share in the transport sector), and to save 20 % of the EU’s energy consumption through increased energy efficiency (the '20-20-20' objective).

The EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package, adopted in 2009, sets a two-fold legislative framework to achieve the 20 % GHG emission reduction objective: a 21 % reduction of emissions covered under the EU ETS, compared with 2005 levels, to be achieved across the whole EU and an effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10 % compared with 2005 levels, shared between the EU Member States through differentiated annual national GHG targets under the ESD.

Building on the 2020 climate and energy package, the European Council recently adopted the 2030 climate and energy framework, which sets a target of a 40 % reduction in GHG emissions compared with 1990 as well as renewable energy and energy efficiency targets of at least 27 % by 2030. The 2030 framework is an EU priority, which follows the Paris Agreement and is consistent with the longer term objective of the '2050 low-carbon economy roadmap', which sets the EU ambition to reduce its GHG emissions by 80 % compared with 1990, with milestones of 40 % by 2030 and 60 % by 2040.

The current indicator aims to present an assessment of the EU's progress and that of individual countries towards their international and national targets under the Kyoto Protocol (in both commitment periods: 2008-2012 and 2013-2020) and under the ESD respectively. The indicator is based on the official GHG inventories submitted by the EEA countries and the EU to the UNFCCC, as well as on the projected GHG emissions submitted by the Member States under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation 525/2013, MMR). In order to calculate the distance to the national ESD targets, emissions reported in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are also taken into account.

Targets

First commitment period (CP1), 2008-2012

For the first commitment period (2008-2012), the 15 States that were EU members in 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, took on an 8 % reduction from the base-year target that was then redistributed among themselves, taking advantage of a scheme under the Protocol known as a 'bubble', whereby countries have different individual targets, which when combined make an overall target for that group of countries. The differentiated targets are set out in Annex II to the Council Decision 2002/358/EC concerning the approval, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC and the joint fulfillment of commitments thereunder.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the other (non EU-15) Member States (apart from Cyprus and Malta) have individual targets. Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia have reduction targets of 8 % from the base year, while Hungary and Poland have reduction targets of 6 % and Croatia has a reduction target of 5 %. Of the additional EEA member countries, Norway and Iceland are allowed to increase emissions under the Kyoto Protocol by 1 % and 10 %, respectively, from their base-year emissions. Liechtenstein and Switzerland have reduction targets of 8 %. Turkey is a Party to the Kyoto Protocol but has no reduction target. 

Second commitment period (CP2), 2013-2020

The EU, its 28 Member States and Iceland agreed to a joint quantified emission reduction commitment of 80 % under the Kyoto Protocol's second commitment period (2013-2020). This is equivalent to a 20 % reduction compared with base-year levels. The 'initial report' of the EU and Iceland (EU-KP) will contain the assigned amount for the second commitment period, as calculated by the Party and will be submitted to the UNFCCC in 2016. 

EU greenhouse gas targets for 2020

The unilateral 20 % GHG reduction target, in the context of the EU Climate and Energy Package, corresponds to a 14 % decrease in emissions between 2005 and 2020. The target is to be achieved both in the sectors covered by the EU ETS (21 % reduction in EU ETS emissions compared with 2005 levels) and in the other sectors covered by national emission targets under the ESD.

The ESD targets used in the indicator are consistent with the EU ETS scope for the third trading period (2013–2020), based on Commission Decision 2013/162/EU of 26 March 2013 on determining Member States' annual emissions allocations for the period 2013-2020, pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council (OJ L 90, 28.3.2013, p. 106–110) and Commission Implementing Decision 2013/634/EU of 31 October 2013 on the adjustments to Member States' annual emissions allocations for the period 2013-2020, pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council (OJ L 292, 1.11.2013, p. 19–22).

The ESD targets (2020 percentage target compared with 2005, and annual absolute targets consistent with the 2013-2020 ETS scope and global warming potentials from the IPCC AR4) are presented in the table below:

EU greenhouse gas targets post 2020

In October 2015, the European Council adopted the '2030 climate and energy framework', setting a binding target to cut emissions in the EU territory by at least 40 % below 1990 levels by 2030. To achieve this target of at least 40 %:

• EU-ETS sectors would have to cut emissions by 43 % (compared with 2005);
• non-ETS sectors would have to cut emissions by 30 % (compared with 2005).

The 2030 framework is consistent with the longer-term objective of the '2050 low-carbon economy roadmap', which sets the EU ambition to reduce its GHG emissions by 80 % compared with 1990, with milestones of 40 % by 2030 and 60 % by 2060. It is also a milestone for the EU’s contribution to the Paris Agreement, which was adopted in December 2015.

Related policy documents

• Commission Decision 2013/162/EU
  Commission Decision of 26 March 2013 on determining Member States’ annual emission allocations for the period from 2013 to 2020 pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council
• Commission Implementing Decision 2013/634/EU
  Commission Implementing Decision of 31 October 2013 on the adjustments to Member States’ annual emission allocations for the period from 2013 to 2020 pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council
• Council Decision (2002/358/EC) of 25 April 2002
  Council Decision (2002/358/EC) of 25 April 2002 concerning the approval, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the joint fulfilment of commitments thereunder.
• Decision No 406/2009/EC (Effort Sharing Decision)
  Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020
• European Council 23-24/10/2014 - Conclusions on 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework
  Conclusions on 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework The European Council endorsed 4 targets: - a binding EU target of 40% less greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 - a target of at least 27% renewable energy consumption - a 27% energy efficiency increase - the completion of the internal energy market by achieving the existing electricity interconnection target of 10% and linking the energy islands - in particular the Baltic states and the Iberian Peninsula On energy security, the European Council endorsed further measures to reduce the EU's energy dependence and increase the security of its electricity and gas supplies.
• Greenhouse gas monitoring mechanism Decision
  Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004 concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol
• Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
  Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; adopted at COP3 in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997
• Monitoring Mechanism Regulation 525/2013
  REGULATION (EU) No 525/2013 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 21 May 2013 on a mechanism for monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and for reporting other information at national and Union level relevant to climate change and repealing Decision No 280/2004/EC
• Paris Agreement
  The Paris Agreement. Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session, held in Paris from 30 November to 11 December 2015.
• Presidency conclusions of the Brussels European Council of 8/9 March 2007
  Presidency conclusions of the Brussels European Council of 8/9 March 2007
• UNFCCC
  UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Methodology for gap filling

Greenhouse gas inventories (years 1990-(X-2)):

The historic emission data presented in the indicator are based on the information reported by Member States under the MMR. However, should a Member State not submit the inventory data required to compile the EU inventory, the Commission shall prepare estimates to complete the GHG inventories submitted by Member States in consultation and close cooperation with the Member States concerned. In this case, the Member State shall use the gap-filled inventory in its official submission to the UNFCCC. The basis for these gap-filling processes is described in the Commission Delegated Regulation of 12.03.2014  (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/g-gas/monitoring/docs/c_2014_1539_en.pdf )

Approximated greenhouse gas inventory (year X-1):

Under the MMR, the Commission shall also estimate a Member State’s approximated GHG inventory if the Member State does not provide it. These estimates are provided by the EEA and are country-specific. More information on the methodology used for gap-filling is provided in the 'Approximated GHG inventory report' of each year.

Projected greenhouse gas emissions (year X–2035):

In order to ensure the timeliness, completeness, consistency, comparability, accuracy and transparency of the reporting of projections by the EU and its Member States, the quality of the reported projections is assessed by the ETC/ACM on behalf of the EEA. As the Member States' reporting of projections is carried out every 2 years by countries, in certain cases, projections are adjusted to ensure full consistency with historic GHG emission data from the latest GHG inventories. Where a country has not made a submission, data are gap-filled by the ETC/ACM.

Methodology references

• Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory and inventory report All the data used to prepare the indicator are consistent with the latest EU GHG national inventory report (NIR). The main institutions involved in the compilation of the EU GHG inventory are the Member States, the European Commission’s Directorates-General Climate Action (DG CLIMA), Eurostat, the Joint Research Centre and the European Environment Agency (EEA) and its European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM). This report is compiled on the basis of the inventories of the EU Member States for the EU-28 (consistent with the EU geographical scope under the UNFCCC), and the EU-28 and Iceland, consistent with the EU's geographical scope under the Kyoto Protocol). The EU GHG inventory is the direct sum of the national inventories. For the EU reference approach, energy data from Eurostat are used for CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels. 
• 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories are the latest step in the IPCC development of inventory guidelines for national estimates of GHGs. These 2006 Guidelines build on the previous Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines and the subsequent Good Practice reports. They include new sources and gases as well as updates to the previously published methods whenever scientific and technical knowledge have improved since the previous guidelines were issued. From 2015, UNFCCC Parties will have to use the 2006 IPCC Guidelines' methodologies and reporting formats when preparing their inventories, in line with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines (Decision 24/CP.19).
• UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories This document contains the complete updated UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories for all inventory sectors. It aims to assist Annex I Parties in meeting their commitments under the Convention and in preparing to meet their commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.
• Commission Regulation (EU) No 601/2012 Commission Regulation (EU) No 601/2012  of 21 June 2012  on the monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions pursuant to Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council. The regulation sets out the rules for the monitoring and reporting of ETS emissions by plant operators, covering the scope of Phase III of the ETS.
• IPCC Forth Assessment Report (AR4) At regular intervals, the (IPCC)  prepares comprehensive  Assessment Reports  of scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change, the potential impacts of climate change and options for mitigation and adaptation. Four Assessment Reports have been completed in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007. The Fourth Assessment Report 'Climate Change 2007' (AR4) is composed of four volumes and various contributions. The AR4 Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the IPCC. It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the AR4. It is written in a non-technical style suitable for policymakers. It is composed of a longer report and a  Summary for Policymakers . The GWP of the AR4 can be found here .

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Greenhouse gas inventories

(a) Difference in methodologies between countries

Since Member States use different national methodologies, national activity data or country-specific emission factors in accordance with IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines, these different methodologies are reflected in the EU GHG inventory data. The EU believes that it is consistent with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines and the 2006 IPCCC guidelines to use different methodologies for one source category across the EU territory, especially if this helps to reduce the uncertainty and improve the consistency of the emission data, provided that each methodology is consistent with the 2006 IPCC guidelines. At the same time, the EU is making an effort to promote and support the use of higher tier methodologies across Member States. At the EU level, and for most of the key categories of the EU inventory, more than 75 % of the EU-KP emissions are calculated using higher tier methodologies, resulting in lower uncertainty rates.

(b) Global warming potential

According to the IPCC, the GWP values used in the IPCC AR4 have an uncertainty of ±35 % for the 5-95 % (90 %) confidence range.

Projected greenhouse gas emissions

The methodology proposed consists of simple additions of data reported by Member States. However, uncertainty arises from the following:

• projections can be subject to updates that might not be reflected in the assessment if these updates were recently made;
• the projections taken into account are fully consistent with Member State submissions under the MMR. However, other sets of projections with different data might have been published by countries (e.g. national allocation plans, national communications to the UNFCCC).
  
  

Several countries carry out sensitivity analyses on their projections.

Approximated greenhouse gas inventory

The uncertainty ranges estimated in the approximated GHG inventories are derived by comparing the official national data submitted to the UNFCCC in year X with the proxy estimates of the same year. The uncertainty for the approximated emissions at the EU level is estimated as the weighted mean of the differences described: weighted again by the relative contribution that each Member State makes to total EU-28 emissions. More details about these methodologies are provided each year in the 'Approximated GHG inventory report'.

Data sets uncertainty

Rationale uncertainty

 The IPCC AR4 (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 'Climate Change 2007') emphasises that:

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
• There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades.
• Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.
• Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change.
  
  

Words in bold represent calibrated expressions of uncertainty and confidence. Relevant terms are explained in the Box 'Treatment of uncertainty' in the introduction to the AR4 Synthesis Report. In particular, 'very likely' corresponds to a probability of occurrence higher than 90 %. This uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results).

The high confidence in the responsibility of anthropogenic GHG emissions for the warming of the climate system re-emphasises the relevance of monitoring and assessing GHG emissions trends in Europe.