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SOER 2010 — assessment of global megatrends

Publication Created 18 Oct 2010 Published 25 Nov 2010
2 min read
This is an old version, kept for reference only.

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This exploratory assessment of global megatrends relevant for the European environment focuses on the impact of major global trends on Europe. A global-to-European perspective is relevant for European environmental policymaking because Europe's environmental challenges and management options are being reshaped by global drivers such as demographics, technologies, trade patterns and consumption. The assessment provides analysis of 11 relevant megatrends, summarises the links between megatrends and Europe's priority environmental challenges, and reflects on possible implications for policymaking.
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Publication Created 18 Oct 2010 Published 25 Nov 2010
2 min read
This is an old version, kept for reference only.

 Go to latest version
This exploratory assessment of global megatrends relevant for the European environment focuses on the impact of major global trends on Europe. A global-to-European perspective is relevant for European environmental policymaking because Europe's environmental challenges and management options are being reshaped by global drivers such as demographics, technologies, trade patterns and consumption. The assessment provides analysis of 11 relevant megatrends, summarises the links between megatrends and Europe's priority environmental challenges, and reflects on possible implications for policymaking.

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: 978-92-9213-208-8
: TH-31-10-664-EN-C

 

In preparation for its next report on the European environment's state and outlook (SOER 2015), the EEA has initiated an update of the assessment of global megatrends. During the second half of 2013 and early-2014, the EEA is reassessing the 11 megatrends and publishing the updates separately on its website, at the link below:


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Figures used

Growing relevance of non-state actors This bar graphic shows the number of NGOs enjoying advisory status with the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) from 40 countries in 1948 to 3187 countries in 2008.
International spread of environmental policies The figure compares the proliferation of twenty-three environmental policy innovations between 1945 and 2005 across 43 OECD and Central Eastern European Countries. The colours represent adoption levels from dark blue (less than 4 countries adopting the policy) to brown (more than 40 countries adopting it). The policies are ranked by adoption rate between start year and 2005 (fastest spreading policies first).
Environmental agreements since 1900 This horizontal bar graphic shows the numbers of bilateral (left-hand axis) and multilateral (right-hand axis) environmental agreements started each year since 1900. It distinguishes original agreements and protocols (darker orange).
Production of chemicals The bar graphic compares current (2005) and projected (2015 and 2030) chemicals production for 3 world regions in USD. The map precise the regions considered: OECD countries (darker blue), BRIICS countries (red), and rest of the world (pale blue).
Emissions of selected air pollutants as a result of three environmental policy packages The 2 line graphics show SO2 and NOx emission trends from 1970 to 2050 according to 4 scenarios: the baseline, Global PP, OECD+BRIC PP, Global PP
Projected impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems The maps show projected impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems: forest cover gain, shrub/woodland cover gain, herbaceous cover gain, desert amelioration, grass/tree cover loss, forest/woodland decline, forest type change, according to 2 climate scenarios (SRES B1 and SRES A2).
Particulate matter pollution 2 comparable maps showing current (2000) and projected (2030) PM10 regional concentrations (population weighted).
The nitrogen cycle Global scheme of nitrogen cycle, showing major nitrogen reservoirs (atmosphere, soil and living organisms), major processes (nitrification, denitrification, nitrogen fixation, assimilation etc.) and actors (plants, animals, bacteria, human beings).
Projected ocean acidification by 2100 The maps show projected ocean acidification and related impacts on corals by 2020, 2060 and 2100: from better (blue) to worse (orange) conditions for coral skeletal growth.
Various human health risks in relation to development and economic growth and Causes of death Top graph: From traditional to modern health risks, this “health transition” scheme describes the relation between development and health, distinguishing behavioural risks and the correlated diseases and death causes. Some risks are specifically related to developing countries (blue part of the scheme), others are typically worrying in developed countries (brown part) and some occur everywhere (blue and brown intersection). Bottom graph: Comparison between 2008 and 2030 projected causes of death for 2 income groups.showing the growing projected imoortance of cardiovascular diseases and cancers.
The Earth’s biomes and loss of species diversity The map: Locating biomes (or regional ecosystems) throughout the world. The graph: The bars compare the impacted states of selected biomes (or regional ecosystems) at various historical dates and projected 2050. These impacts are expressed using the Mean species abundance (MSA) indicator.
Conversion of regional ecosystems (biomes) The bars show, for each biome, the fraction of potential area lost by 1950 (pale blue), lost between 1950 and 1990 (blue) and the projected loss by 2050 (dark blue).
Water erosion risk. Baseline projection to 2030 Location of areas of high risk(red), moderate risk (orange) and low risk (white)of water erosion.
Changing area of farmland Areas of grass and fodder, food crops and biofuel crops trends for 1980, 2005 and 2030. Forested areas are also added as a comparison.
Cost of oil production Production cost comparison between arctic oil, deep and ultra-deepwater oil, heavy oil and bitumen, conventional oil
World energy demand Total primary energy demand by fuel type (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, biomass and waste, other renewable). Distinguishing 2 scenario for 2020 and 2035: IEA-450 scenario and current policies scenario.
Price of fossil fuels and metals Fuel price index and metals price index evolution from 1980 to 2010
Share of global exports Share of world exports evolution (1980 to 2009) for selected export regions or countries
Shift in trade partner Top five partners in trade of China, the European Union, the United States and Sub-Saharan Africa for 2006 and projections for 2050
The weight of trade Trend of exports as a percentage of gross domestic product
Registered inventions The bar sizes show, for each country, the number of applicants to register inventions, counted as patent families. A patent family is a set of inter-related applications on the same subject. Statistics based on patent families eliminate double counts (i.e. when the same invention is registered in different patent offices).
Still a large gap between advanced and emerging economies GDP per capita from 1980 to 2030
Economic growth continues, faster in emerging economies Trend of Gross Domestic Product in selected countries and world regions. Indexed values (index=100 in 2000).
Patent registration trends Trends in patent registration for selected patent offices including the 3 most popular ones (United States , Japan and China), European selected patent offices, China and Korea.
Shortening time lapse before mass use of technological inventions Timeline describing the ever-shortening time taken by a selection of inventions (telephone, radio, TV, Internet..) to reach a quarter of the population in the US.
Environmental factors and conflicts possibly causing migration Colors show Human development Index ranking. Symbols locate possible causes of displacements: environmental upheavals related to climate change and major conflicts since 2000.
Malaria in 2050 The map shows the current distribution of falciparum malaria (in yellow), areas where it is projected to appear (in red) and disappear (in green) by 2050.
Movements of people: migration and tourism The map shows 'moving to work and escape poverty': Migration between and inside world regions from 1995 to 2004. Colors show regional migratory balance (surplus or deficit), arrows show major movements between and inside regions. The graph shows 'travelling for leisure': trends in number of tourists since 1950 and projections to 2020.
Car ownership rates projections Car ownership trends and projections (2000-2050). Although car ownership is projected to grow at much higher rates in China and India than in the rest of the world, the number of cars per person in 2050 will still stay below that of more advanced economies.
Changing middle class Trends and projections (2000- 2050) of middle-class consumption, showing the growing importance of middle-class consumers in China and India.
Slowdown of urban growth Historical trends and projections by world regions (1950- 2050) of urban growth rate showing a clear slowdown for all regions
Urban trends Historical urban population trends and projections by world regions (1950- 2050), showing the share of cities with less than 750 000 inhabitants
Correlation between fertility and female education The graph shows the correlation between adult female literacy (X-axis) rates and fertility rates (Y-axis) by country. Circles are proportional to national country population.
Population pyramids for 2000 and 2050. Population by age, sex and educational attainment Comparison between the year 2000 and projected 2050 population by age, sex and educational attainment for Africa and the European Union
Median age projections Median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups: half the people are younger and half are older. The graphics compares population ageing between world regions and between selected countries since 1950 and up to projected median age in 2050.
World population projections - Regional shares of world population Historical population trends and projections by world region
World population projections - IIASA probabilistic projections compared to UN projections This graph compares population projections to 2100 resulting from 2 organisations: the UN Population Division studies fertility-evolution scenarios for produce high, medium and low variant figures, whereas the IIASA bases its calculations on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration.

News and articles

Food for thought – sharing information on food production Global food, energy and water systems appear to be more vulnerable and fragile than was thought a few years ago, due to increased demand for food, and a decreased and unstable supply, according to an EEA analysis. But we can make our food systems more resilient if we rethink what we eat and how we produce it.
Changing environmental governance in a changing world Climate change, growing consumption and urbanisation, spiralling resource use and new health risks are just some of the global pressures the world will face in the 21st Century. These are the findings from the Assessment of Global Megatrends, launched in November 2010 as part of the State and Outlook of the European Environment Report (SOER) and now published in a new book version.

Related briefings

Related publications

Assessment of global megatrends The global megatrends report assesses 11 global megatrends (GMT) of importance for Europe's environment in the long term. In assessing key drivers, trends and implications for Europe, it aims to provide an improved basis for strategic European environmental policymaking.
Global megatrends update: 2 Living in an urban world In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA updated each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately. In mid-2015 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report.
Global megatrend update: 1 Diverging global population trends In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA updated each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately. In mid-2015 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report.
Global megatrend update: 10 Increasing environmental pollution load In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment's state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA updated each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately. In mid-2015 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report.
Global megatrend update: 6 From a unipolar to a multipolar world In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA updated each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately. In mid-2015 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report.
Global megatrend update: 5 Continued economic growth? In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA updated each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately. In mid-2015 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report.
BLOSSOM — Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods A cross-country analysis
Global governance — the rise of non-state actors A background report for the SOER 2010 assessment of global megatrends.
The European environment – state and outlook 2010: Synthesis The SOER 2010 Synthesis provides an overview of the European environment's state, trends and prospects, integrating the main findings of SOER 2010.

See also

Archived
Drivers of change: challenges and opportunities for sustainability in Europe The world is becoming increasingly interconnected through flows of information, resources, goods and services, people and ideas, and this implies that changes occurring in one part of the world are likely to have a ripple effect on others. This means that production and consumption systems in Europe are not isolated from one another or the rest of the world. Instead, they are influenced by multiple 'drivers of change'.
Archived
Assessment of global megatrends — an update Europe is bound to the rest of the world through an enormous number of systems — environmental, economic, social, political and others. Such networks enable complex flows of materials and ideas across the globe, producing uncertain feedbacks and knock-on effects over time. Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe today can affect the climate in distant locations and far into the future. Land management choices on the other side of the world can influence food and energy prices in Europe. Global communication and trade networks fuel innovation — sometimes boosting efficiency, sometimes creating new environmental pressures.
Archived
Assessment of global megatrends — an update Europe is bound to the rest of the world through an enormous number of systems — environmental, economic, social, political and others. Such networks enable complex flows of materials and ideas across the globe, producing uncertain feedbacks and knock-on effects over time. Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe today can affect the climate in distant locations and far into the future. Land management choices on the other side of the world can influence food and energy prices in Europe. Global communication and trade networks fuel innovation — sometimes boosting efficiency, sometimes creating new environmental pressures.
Archived
Greening Europe’s agriculture Human society relies for its health and well-being on four basic categories of natural resources: food, water, energy and other materials including fibre, minerals and processed chemicals. At the global level, food, water and energy systems are becoming increasingly vulnerable. Global demand for energy and water is projected to rise by 40 % over the next 20 years if no major policy changes are implemented.

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For references, please go to https://eea.europa.eu./soer/2010/europe-and-the-world/megatrends or scan the QR code.

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