Air pollution in Europe: 2023 reporting status under the National Emission reduction Commitments Directive

Progress towards the emission reduction commitments

The National Emission reduction Commitments Directive sets obligations to reduce national emissions of five pollutants, namely fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), ammonia (NH₃) and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) (EU, 2016). The Directive targets 2020-2029, with more drastic obligations from 2030 onwards.

The analysis presented in this briefing is based on the latest air pollutant emission inventory data^{[1], [2]} (for the year 2021) reported by Member States^[3] in 2023. Member States have reported annual emission inventory information since 1990 (2000 in the case of particulate matter).

Status of achieving the 2020-2029 emission reduction commitments under the NEC Directive 

In 2021, data reported by Member States indicate that 13 Member States met the emission reduction commitments set for the period 2020-2029 for all five main pollutants.

Figure 1 presents the number of Member States meeting their 2020-2029 national emission reduction commitments for the five main pollutants already in 2021. It clearly illustrates that reducing ammonia emissions continues to present a significant challenge to more than one third of Member States, with continued and enhanced efforts needed to lower them.

Figure 1. Number of Member States that met their 2020-2029 national emissions reduction commitments for the five main pollutants in 2021, and number of Member States that need to reduce their emission levels to meet their commitments

Note: This information is based on data provided by Member States, not yet checked by the European Commission. The numbers are subject to change in relation to the results of the NEC directive inventory review.

Efforts needed to meet national emission reduction commitments for 2020-2029 

Member States need to do more to achieve the national emission reduction commitments set for the period 2020-2029. 13 Member States failing to meet their emission reduction commitments in 2021 for at least one of the five main air pollutants.

Table 1 presents the percentage reductions still required for Member States to reach their 2020-2029 and 2030 emission reduction commitments. The required reductions are calculated as the percentage difference between 2021 reported emissions and the emission reduction commitments for 2020-2029 and for 2030 onwards.

Member States are divided into five groups:

• Member States where current emission levels fulfil their emission reduction commitments;
• Member States that need to reduce emissions by up to 10%;
• Member States that need to reduce emissions by 10% to less than 30%;
• Member States that need to reduce emissions by 30% to less than 50%;
• Member States that need to reduce emissions by 50% or more.

Table 1. Percentage emission reductions (compared with 2021 levels) required by EU Member States to meet their emission reduction commitments for 2020-2029 and 2030 onwards

Note: This information is based on data provided by Member States, not yet checked by the European Commission. The numbers are subject to change in relation to the results of the NEC Directive inventory review.

The NEC Directive (Article 5) establishes a process that allows Member States to adjust their emission inventories downwards for compliance checking. This can take place when the failure to comply with the national emission reduction commitments is due to Member States having applied improved emission inventory methods that have been updated in accordance with the latest scientific knowledge that has become available since the reduction commitments were originally set. Ireland submitted a flexibility application in 2023 for an inventory adjustment in relation to NMVOC. This application is taken into account in this current assessment.

10 Member States will have to further reduce NH₃ emissions by up to 10% to meet their 2020-2029 national emission reduction commitments. In many Member States, NH₃ emissions have decreased only slightly since 2005 or in some cases increased, highlighting the challenge of tackling these emissions. NH₃ emissions impact biodiversity and contribute to the formation of secondary ^[4] PM_2.5, the main air pollutant driving premature death in EU Member States. Reducing NH₃ emissions is critical to achieving the zero pollution action plan target of reducing by 25% the EU ecosystems where air pollution threatens biodiversity.

Two Member States (Poland and Lithuania) need to reduce their NMVOC emissions to meet their 2020-2029 national emission reduction commitments. They need to reduce emissions by around 13% and 14% respectively.  

Two Member States (Lithuania and Romania) need to reduce their NO_x emissions to meet their 2020-2029 national emission reduction commitments. They need to reduce emissions by around 32% and 7% respectively.

Three Member States need to reduce their PM_2.5 emissions to meet their 2020-2029 national emission reduction commitments. Romania needs to reduce its PM_2.5 emissions by around 26% compared to 2021 levels, while Poland and Hungary need to reduce their emissions by around 9% and 7%, respectively. PM_2.5 is the air pollutant driving the most significant health problems and premature mortality, making the reduction of PM_2.5 emissions critical to achieving the target of reducing the number of premature deaths by 55% by 2030, as set out in the Zero pollution action plan. 

All Member States but one fulfilled their 2020-2029 national emission reduction commitments for SO₂ Cyprus, where energy supply and use in manufacturing are the principal sources for this pollutant, needs to reduce its SO₂ emissions by around 35%.

Progress towards the 2030 emission reduction commitments — the path to achieving a zero pollution Europe

Looking ahead, all Member States except for Belgium and Finland need to reduce emissions for at least one pollutant to fulfil their 2030 commitments. The greatest challenge will be to reduce NH₃, NO_x and PM_2.5 emissions.

Figure 2 presents the number of Member States which, in 2021, had already met their national reduction commitments for 2030 and beyond for the five main pollutants. For the other Member States, it shows the emission reductions, compared to 2021 levels, required to meet 2030 commitments. It should be noted that further measures may also be needed for Member States shown in green below to ensure that emissions do not increase.

Figure 2. Number of Member States that had met their national emission reduction commitments for the five main pollutants for 2030 and beyond in 2021, and number of Member States that need to reduce emissions to meet their commitments

Note: This information is based on data provided by Member States, not yet checked by the European Commission. The numbers are subject to change in relation to the results of the NEC directive inventory review.

Regarding NH₃ emissions, five Member States already met their 2030 emission reduction commitments in 2021. In terms of countries needing to do more:

• 13 Member States need reductions under 10%
• 8 need emissions to fall by between 10% and 30%

Regarding PM_2.5 emissions, seven Member States met their 2030 emission reduction commitments in 2021. In terms of countries needing to do more:

• 3 Member States,  will need to reduce their emissions by more than 50% compared to 2021 levels
• 4 Member States will need to reduce emissions by between 30% and 50%
• 12 Member States will need to reduce their emissions by up to 30%

Regarding NO_x emissions, four Member States met their emission reduction commitments for 2030. However, 23 Member States will need to reduce emissions, of which:

• 1 Member State (Malta) will need to reduce them by more than 50%
• 6 Member States will need to reduce them by more than 30%
• 15 Member States will need a reduction of up to 30%

For emissions of NMVOCs, eight Member States met their 2030 emission reduction commitments in 2021. In terms of countries needing reductions:

• 5 Member States need reductions of less than 10%
• 13 Member States need reductions of up to 30%

The picture for SO₂ emissions is more positive overall. A challenge remains for Cyprus, where emission reductions of more than 50% will be needed to reach the 2030 commitment. Germany, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia will also need to reduce their emissions by up to 30%, while Ireland and Lithuania need to reduce their emissions by up to 10%.

Main sources of air pollutants in 2021

The economic sectors responsible for emissions to the air vary by pollutant. This section of the briefing presents information on the sources of these air pollutants, addressing a broader range of air pollutants than those covered by the NEC Directive.

Figure 3 presents the sectors and activities that contributed to the majority of main air pollutant emissions in the EU Member States in 2021.

The primary source of particulate matter, including PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and black carbon (BC), was energy consumption in the residential, commercial and institutional sector. It was responsible for 62%, 44% and 42% of reported emissions, respectively. Changes in the energy sector will be crucial for meeting the emission reduction commitments for PM_2.5, as the burning of solid biomass and fossil fuels for residential heating still contributes significantly to emissions in some Member States. Actions to reduce emissions include improving insulation and upgrading heating systems, installing low-emission boilers or switching fuel types. Significant emissions of particulate matter also result from the manufacturing and extractive industry sector and from road transport, including from internal combustion engines and from tyre and brake wear in vehicles.

The agriculture sector was the principal source of NH₃, responsible for 93% of emissions. The European Commission’s Third Clean Air Outlook concluded that the measures currently in place are not enough to reduce NH₃ emissions to the extent needed to meet the emission reduction commitments, and that further measures need to be put in place in several Member States. As such, Member States should include more measures applicable to the agriculture sector in their updated national air pollution control programmes (NAPCPs), such as good practice for housing and feeding livestock, storing manure and spreading it on land, and sustainable fertiliser use.

The road transport sector was the main source of reported NO_x emissions, responsible for 41%, followed by the energy supply sector at 17%. The manufacturing and extractive industry sector and the residential, commercial and institutional sector were each responsible for 13%. In 2021, the COVID-19 lockdowns led to significant declines in road traffic. This may have helped all but two Member States achieve their NO_x emission reduction commitments for 2021.

The manufacturing and extractive industry sector is the single main source of NMVOC emissions, responsible for 42% of the total, followed by the agriculture sector responsible for 21%. The residential, commercial and institutional sector was the third-largest contributor at 18%.

Energy supply was the principal source of SO₂ emissions at 65%, with the manufacturing and extractive industry  sector being the second-largest contributor at 21%.

The residential, commercial and institutional sector was the main source of CO emissions followed by the road transport sector, responsible for 48% and 24% respectively.

Figure 3. Contributions to EU Member States’ emissions of NH₃, NO₂, NMVOCs, SO₂, primary^[5] PM_2.5, primary PM₁₀, BC and CO from the main source sectors in 2021

Note: This information is based on data provided by Member States, not yet checked by the European Commission. The numbers are subject to change in relation to the results of the NEC directive inventory review.

Figure 4 shows what the main source sectors contributed to EU Member States’ emissions of heavy metals and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) in 2021. 

• The manufacturing and extractive industry sector was the principal source of all heavy metal emissions, except nickel and mercury. This sector was responsible for 59% of lead, 50% of cadmium and 46% of arsenic emissions.
• The energy supply sector was the main source of nickel and mercury emissions, responsible for 49% and 44% respectively. This was followed be the manufacturing and extractive industry sector, contributing 42% of mercury emissions and 26% of nickel emissions.
• For arsenic, the energy supply sector was the second-largest source of emissions, responsible for 39% of their total. The residential, commercial and institutional sector was the third most important sector, responsible for 8% of arsenic emissions.
• For lead, the second-largest source of emissions was road transport, at 19%, followed by the residential, commercial and institutional sector at 11% of emissions.
• For cadmium, the residential, commercial and institutional sector, and the energy supply sector, were the second and third most important sources. They were responsible for 21% and 20% of total emissions, respectively.
• The residential, commercial and institutional sector was the primary source of benzo(a)pyrene emissions, responsible for 91%.

Figure 4. Contributions to EU emissions of arsenic, benzo(a)pyrene, cadmium, mercury, nickel and lead from the main source sectors in 2021

Note: This information is based on data provided by Member States, not yet checked by the European Commission. The numbers are subject to change in relation to the results of the NEC directive inventory review.

Past trends in air pollutant emissions, 2005-2021

Total pollutant emissions in the EU Member States declined in 2021, maintaining the overall downward trend observed since 2005. Figure 5 shows the trend in total emissions, indexed as a percentage of their value in the reference year 2005 and set against gross domestic product (GDP) as a percentage of the 2005 value. 

From 2005 to 2021, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ emissions fell by 28% and 27%. Emissions of SO₂ fell significantly between 2005 to 2021 with a decrease of 80%. Major reductions were also seen for nitrogen oxides (47%), black carbon (40%), CO (37%) and NMVOCs (29%).

Notably, NH₃ emissions reduced the least – by only 13% over this period.

Figure 5. 2005-2021 Trends in EU emissions of NH₃, NMVOCs, NO_x, primary PM₁₀, primary PM_2.5, BC, SO₂ and CO as percentages of 2005 levels, set against EU Member States’ GDP as a percentage of the 2005 GDP

Notes: GDP is gross domestic product at market prices in euros.

Sources: EEA air pollutant emissions data viewer (2023); https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/-/TEC00001  (2023).

Figure 6 shows trends in the total emissions of heavy metals and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) in the EU Member States, indexed as a percentage of their value in the reference year 2005 and set against EU Member States’ GDP as a percentage of the 2005 value. Emissions of nickel (Ni) and arsenic (As) fell by 63% and 60%, respectively, while mercury (Hg), lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) emissions fell by 47%, 42% and 37%, respectively. Emissions of BaP fell by only 16%.

Figure 6. 2005-2021, Trends in EU emissions of benzo(a)pyrene, cadmium, lead, mercury, arsenic and nickel, as percentages of 2005 levels set against EU Member States’ GDP as a percentage of the 2005 GDP

Note: GDP is gross domestic product at market prices in euros.

Sources: EEA air pollutant emissions data viewer (2023); https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/-/TEC00001 (2023).

During the period 2005-2021, emissions showed a significant absolute decoupling from economic activity. Absolute decoupling occurs when an environmental impact variable, such as air pollutant emissions, remains stable or decreases while GDP increases, leading to lower emissions of main air pollutants for each unit of GDP produced annually. Both Figures 5 and 6 show that EU Member States’ air pollutant emissions declined between 2005 and 2021, while EU Member States’ GDP increased by 47%. The greatest decoupling is seen for SO₂, followed by NO_x, BC, CO and certain metals (Ni, As and Hg).

The decoupling of emissions from economic activity may be the result of a combination of factors, such as increased regulation and policy implementation, fuel switching, technological improvements, and improvements in energy or process efficiencies.