Land systems at European level — analytical assessment framework

Step 1: Formulation of a policy-relevant question

To become more effective and efficient, the EEA’s land assessments should better link research work with decision-makers’ priorities. The proposed analytical framework must answer critical policy-relevant questions such as: What are the impacts of agricultural intensification on land system components and the spatial configuration of land use? In which landscapes should additional land take be prevented to avoid passing a tipping point in the justifiable functioning of land?

Step 2: Mapping pressures (land processes)

Key drivers must be identified and the resulting relevant environmental pressures explored. Such pressures correspond to land processes in the human-environment land system. Land processes represent the central elements of the analytical framework and are defined as physical, biological or chemical processes that directly influence changes in ecosystem functions and services[12]. They can be mapped by Earth Observation such as Copernicus land monitoring products (CORINE Land cover and land cover change) combined with spatially distributed statistical data on socio-economic activities, including farming inputs per unit of Farm Accountancy Data Network or Eurostat territorial statistics. Other land processes are driven by biophysical factors, namely extreme weather events (e.g. climate hazards such as drought and/or forest fires) or biological dispersal (e.g. invasive species) and may require inputs from spatial modelling or in situ monitoring.

Step 3: Territorial assessment

Land systems have a specific spatial structure that refers to the type, magnitude and spatial pattern of land use in a bounded assessment area and is dependent on the scale of analysis. The territorial assessment describes land systems as a state of natural capital and a socio-economic purpose of natural resources. This includes land management practices, such as the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake across regions. From a practical perspective, this includes analysis of the spatial distribution of land use and land cover (LU/LC) patterns, the local and regional variances of land management practices, the degree of imperviousness and soil sealing and the existence of conservation and non-conservation areas. A territorial analysis results in map categories, which represent specific characteristics of land processes e.g. intensity levels of agricultural land use, forest management practices or peri-urban land take at a given time.

As an example, four cropping indicators were derived from MODIS NDVI and a self-organising map approach was used to identify typical agricultural intensity patterns across Europe[13].

Step 4: Dynamic assessment

Changes in the state of land systems can be measured from land cover flows from one broad LU/LC category to another. Qualitative intensity changes within land use categories are less well known[5]. However, both types of land process result in changes in the services and goods provided by land systems. A dynamic assessment, therefore, focuses on the description and interpretation of land processes as: (1) conversions among broad LU/LC categories (e.g. deforestation, agricultural expansion, land recycling) that lead to changes in the territorial extent of these land types; and (2) changing management practices (e.g. changes in mechanisation, fertiliser application, or wood harvesting), resulting in intensity changes within the extent of these land types. At this step, the analytical framework allows patterns of temporal land system changes occurring at distinct geographical regions to be identified, e.g. an increase in agrochemical inputs and conversion to more intensive land use, but also withdrawal of farming through a reduction in farming interventions and abandonment or naturalisation/rewilding.

Spatial patterns of changes in the extent and management intensity in Europe’s agriculture, forestry and urban areas for the period 1990–2006 have been mapped[14]. A methodological approach based on high-resolution and spatially explicit indicators has been used to identify land use change hotspots and assess the spatial congruence between land use change processes. Despite the moderate overall rates of change, many regions in Europe fell into at least one land use change hotspot during the 1990–2006 period. This was often related to a spatial reorganisation of land use (i.e. co-occurring area decline and intensification or co-occurring area increase and extensification).

Step 5: Functional assessment

This step measures impact, i.e. the effect a land process has on the delivery of environmental functions. For example, intensification of agricultural land use that encourages soil loss by erosion and the degradation of soil quality represents a threat to many land functions and may lead to a decline in ecosystems services based on these functions. This analytical framework compares the provision of functions and services across geographical regions, taking into account that they occur within different land use types and are subject to contrasting management activities evaluated in steps 3 and 4. Examples include soil functions, e.g. biomass production, storing and filtering capacity or acting as a carbon pool; land functions, e.g. food and feed production, recreation potential or aesthetic information; and ecosystem services, e.g. habitat quality, pollination potential or net ecosystem productivity.

A conceptual model to score soil functions and ecosystem services and compare them across broad types of conventional, conservation and integrated agricultural systems has been developed[15]. The work revealed that the overall agro-environmental score is largest for conservation systems and smallest for conventional systems. The benefits included water availability for crops, weed control, insect and pathogen control, soil quality and functioning, soil erosion control, soil organic carbon pool, environmental pollution control and greenhouse gas refuse (emission). At the same time, the crop yield productivity score is highest for integrated systems and lowest for conservation systems.

Step 6: Key policy message

The outcome of the assessment steps should provide an answer to the policy question posed in Step 1, and inform responses to specific pressures on the land system. To illustrate, a potential analytical outcome of the proposed framework could suggest that a land process such as ‘agricultural land use intensification’ provides increased ‘food, feed and energy production from biomass’ in a specific geographical region, but also increases ‘soil contamination’ and decreases ‘habitat quality’ for animal species. When presented with sufficient spatio-temporal detail and complemented by functional implications, a concrete statement (or a set of key messages) based on the land systems assessment will contribute to formulating policy measures.