Total greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe - 8th EAP

Indicator

workflow

Content responsible Head of Group adds a pickup list of EEA Heads of Group that is responsible for the content.

Consultation members emails List of consultation members emails, separated by commas.

Kontakt Contact info

Metadata

Temporal coverage This property is read-only and it is automatically extracted from this indicator's data visualizations.

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Geographic coverage This property is read-only and it is automatically extracted from this indicator's data visualizations

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UN SDGs Sustainable Development Goals - Choose max 2 goals

Climate action

Typology Typology

DPSIR DPSIR (drivers, pressures, state, impact and response model of intervention) is a causal framework for describing the interactions between society and the environment: Human impact on the environment and vice versa because of the interdependence of the components.

Supporting information

Methodology Methodology for indicator calculation and for gap filling. Where relevant, include changes to methodology and subsequent implications for comparability. Also include uncertainties in relation to the indicator calculation and/or to gap filling) if these are considerable.

[{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "strong", "children": [{"text": "Methodology for indicator calculation"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "This indicator is based on the official GHG inventories submitted by the EEA countries to the EEA, as well as on the projected GHG emissions submitted by the Member States under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation 525/2013, MMR). The EU GHG inventory submitted by the EU to the UNFCCC is based on the same data and is also used. The EU ETS emissions, as reported to the European Commission by operators of industrial installations and aircrafts, are also used. When available, approximate estimates of the GHG emissions for the year (X-1) are also presented."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Greenhouse gases"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In line with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories, the national inventories cover emissions and removals of the following GHGs:"}]}, {"type": "ul", "children": [{"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "carbon dioxide (CO"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2"}]}, {"text": "), including indirect\u00a0CO"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2;"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "methane (CH"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "4"}]}, {"text": ");"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "nitrous oxide (N"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2"}]}, {"text": "O);"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "perfluorocarbons (PFCs);"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "suphur hexafluoride (SF"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "6"}]}, {"text": "); and"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "nitrogen trifluoride (NF"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "3"}]}, {"text": ")"}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "from six sectors (Energy, Industrial processes and product use, Agriculture, LULUCF, Waste and Other)."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The gases do not include the GHG emissions that are also ozone-depleting substances, which are controlled by the Montreal Protocol."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In order to be aggregated, non-CO"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2"}]}, {"text": "\u00a0gases are weighted by their respective global warming potential (GWP) and presented in\u00a0CO"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2"}]}, {"text": "-equivalent units. Global warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much a given mass of a GHG is estimated to contribute to global warming on a 100-year horizon."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In accordance with the UNFCCC rules, the GWP values used in this indicator are the ones from IPCC AR4:"}]}, {"type": "table", "children": [{"type": "tbody", "children": [{"type": "tr", "children": [{"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Gas"}]}, {"text": ""}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Global warming potential values from IPCC AR2"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "[before 2015]"}]}, {"text": ""}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Global warming potential values from IPCC AR4"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "[after 2015]"}]}, {"text": ""}]}]}]}, {"type": "tr", "children": [{"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Carbon dioxide (CO"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2"}]}, {"text": ")"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "1"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "1"}]}]}]}, {"type": "tr", "children": [{"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Methane (CH"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "4"}]}, {"text": ")"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "21"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "25"}]}]}]}, {"type": "tr", "children": [{"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Nitrous oxide (N"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2"}]}, {"text": "O)"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "310"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "298"}]}]}]}, {"type": "tr", "children": [{"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Sulphur hexafluoride (SF"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "6"}]}, {"text": ")"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "23 900"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "22 800"}]}]}]}, {"type": "tr", "children": [{"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Nitrogen trifluoride (NF"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "3"}]}, {"text": ")"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "_"}]}]}, {"type": "td", "children": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "17 200"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "HFCs and PFCs comprise a large number of different gases that have different GWPs. The full list of GWPs can be found here:\u00a0"}, {"url": "http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-2.html#table-2-14", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-2.html#table-2-14", "target": "_self"}}, "title": "IPCC 4"}, "children": [{"text": "IPCC AR 4"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Greenhouse gas inventories"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "For the preparation of their national inventories, countries use the methodologies of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Projected greenhouse gas emissions"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "For projected GHG emissions, information submitted by the EEA countries under the MMR is used. The projected GHG emissions referred to in the indicator are those reported under the 'with existing measures' scenario (WEM) and the 'with additional measures' scenario (WAM)."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Emission trading system emissions"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Emissions from the EU ETS are also presented in the indicator. The EU ETS runs over three trading periods: Phase I (2005-2007), Phase II (2008-2012) and Phase III (2013-2020)."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In 2013, the scope of the EU ETS was expanded to include additional references to (a) the capture, transport and geological storage of GHG emissions; (b) CO"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2"}]}, {"text": "\u00a0emissions from petrochemical, ammonia and aluminium production; (c) N"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2"}]}, {"text": "O emissions from the production of nitric, adipic and glyoxylic acids; and (d) PFC emissions from aluminium production.\u00a0Since 1 January 2012, aviation has also been part of the EU ETS."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Since 2013, these emissions have been calculated by the plant operators that fall under the ETS obligations in line with Regulation No 601/2012, whereas in Phase II of the EU ETS (2008-2012), the monitoring and reporting of the operators was based on Commission Decision 2004/156/EU."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Croatia entered the EU ETS on 1 January 2013."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Approximated greenhouse gas inventory"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Finally, this indicator uses data and estimates from the 'Approximated GHG inventory' for the year (X-1). These 'proxy' inventories are reported by Member States to the EEA and to the Commission under the MMR by 31\u00a0July of each year, X, and are calculated at an aggregated level on the basis of the national and international information available for the year (X-1)."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "h4", "children": [{"text": "Methodology for gap filling"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Greenhouse gas inventories (years 1990-(X-2)):"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The historic emission data presented in the indicator are based on the information reported by Member States under the MMR. However, should a Member State not submit the inventory data required to compile the EU inventory, the Commission shall prepare estimates to complete the GHG inventories submitted by Member States in consultation and close cooperation with the Member States concerned. In this case, the Member State shall use the gap-filled inventory in its official submission to the UNFCCC. The basis for these gap-filling processes is described in the Commission Delegated Regulation of 12.03.2014\u00a0\u00a0("}, {"url": "http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/g-gas/monitoring/docs/c_2014_1539_en.pdf", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/g-gas/monitoring/docs/c_2014_1539_en.pdf", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/g-gas/monitoring/docs/c_2014_1539_en.pdf"}]}, {"text": "\u00a0)"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Projected greenhouse gas emissions (year X\u20132035)"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In order to ensure the timeliness, completeness, consistency, comparability, accuracy and transparency of the reporting of projections by the EU and its Member States, the quality of the reported projections is assessed by the ETC/CME on behalf of the EEA. As the Member States' reporting of projections is carried out every 2 years by countries, in certain cases, projections are adjusted to ensure full consistency with historic GHG emission data from the latest GHG inventories. Where a country has not made a submission, data are gap-filled by the ETC/CME."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Approximated greenhouse gas inventory (year X-1)"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Under the MMR, the Commission shall also estimate a Member State\u2019s approximated GHG inventory if the Member State does not provide it. These estimates are provided by the EEA and are country-specific. More information on the methodology used for gap-filling is provided in the 'Approximated GHG inventory report' of each year."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "h4", "children": [{"text": "Methodology references"}]}, {"type": "ul", "children": [{"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://www.eea.europa.eu//publications/european-union-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2020", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.eea.europa.eu//publications/european-union-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2020", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory and inventory report"}]}, {"text": ": all the data used to prepare the indicator are consistent with the latest EU GHG national inventory report (NIR). The main institutions involved in the compilation of the EU GHG inventory are the Member States, the European Commission\u2019s Directorates-General Climate Action (DG CLIMA), Eurostat, the Joint Research Centre and the European Environment Agency (EEA) and its European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/CME). This report is compiled on the basis of the inventories of the EU Member States for the EU-28 (before 2020). The EU GHG inventory is the direct sum of the national inventories.\u00a0 "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories"}]}, {"text": ": the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories are the latest step in the IPCC development of inventory guidelines for national estimates of GHGs. These 2006 Guidelines build on the previous Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines and the subsequent Good Practice reports. They include new sources and gases as well as updates to the previously published methods whenever scientific and technical knowledge have improved since the previous guidelines were issued. Since 2015, UNFCCC Parties are using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines' methodologies and reporting formats when preparing their inventories, in line with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines (Decision 24/CP.19). "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2013/cop19/eng/10a03.pdf", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2013/cop19/eng/10a03.pdf", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories"}]}, {"text": ": this document contains the complete updated UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories for all inventory sectors. "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1400599097227&uri=CELEX:32012R0601", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1400599097227&uri=CELEX:32012R0601", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Commission Regulation (EU) No 601/2012"}]}, {"text": ": Commission Regulation (EU) No 601/2012\u00a0of 21 June 2012 on the monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions pursuant to Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council. The regulation sets out the rules for the monitoring and reporting of ETS emissions by plant operators, covering the scope of Phase III of the ETS. "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/syr/", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/syr/", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "IPCC Forth Assessment Report (AR4)"}]}, {"text": ": at regular intervals, the (IPCC) \u00a0prepares comprehensive\u00a0 Assessment Reports \u00a0of scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change, the potential impacts of climate change and options for mitigation and adaptation. Currently used GWP are based on the AR4. "}]}]}]

Data sources and providers This property is read-only and it is automatically extracted from this indicator's data visualizations

[{"type": "p", "children": [{"url": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/greenhouse-gas-emission-projections-for-9", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/greenhouse-gas-emission-projections-for-9", "target": "_self"}}}, "type": "a", "children": [{"text": "Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections"}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"url": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/national-emissions-reported-to-the-unfccc-and-to-the-eu-greenhouse-gas-monitoring-mechanism-18", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/national-emissions-reported-to-the-unfccc-and-to-the-eu-greenhouse-gas-monitoring-mechanism-18", "target": "_self"}}}, "type": "a", "children": [{"text": "National emissions reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism"}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"url": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/approximated-estimates-for-greenhouse-gas-emissions-5", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/approximated-estimates-for-greenhouse-gas-emissions-5", "target": "_self"}}}, "type": "a", "children": [{"text": "Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions"}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"url": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/european-union-emissions-trading-scheme-17", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/european-union-emissions-trading-scheme-17", "target": "_self"}}}, "type": "a", "children": [{"text": "European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) data from EUTL"}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"url": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/esd-4", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/api/SITE/data-and-maps/data/esd-4", "target": "_self"}}}, "type": "a", "children": [{"text": "Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD)"}]}]}]

Definition Clear definition of the indicator, including references to standards and classifications

[{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "This indicator presents past and projected emissions trends in Europe and assesses the progress of the EU towards its international and internal GHG targets."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The EU\u2019s total GHG emissions are shown in the context of the EU\u2019s overall climate targets and disaggregated trends are shown to illustrate the development of emissions covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and the Effort Sharing Legislation, as well as those from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Emissions from international aviation are included in total GHG emissions and depicted separately, together with the disaggregated trends."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In accordance with the UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines, total GHG emissions do not cover emissions from international shipping, net LULUCF emissions and/or removals, and CO"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2\u00a0"}]}, {"text": "emissions from the combustion of biomass (including biofuels in transport)."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The indicator covers all 27 Member States of the European Union and the UK for historic emissions trends. Future emissions trends (from 2021 onwards) do not include the United Kingdom."}]}]

Unit of measure Unit in which data values are measured.

Policy / environmental relevance The degree to which the indicator meets current/potential needs of users

[{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats and the warming of the climate system is unequivocal according to the "}, {"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)"}]}, {"text": ".\u00a0"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In order to prevent the most severe impacts of climate change, countries that have signed up to the "}, {"url": "https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)"}]}, {"text": " agreed to cooperate with a view to limiting the increase in global average temperature and the resulting climate change. In this context, industrialised countries need to prepare and submit regularly updated annual inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Up until 2020, the main international instrument to limit GHG emissions was the "}, {"url": "https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Kyoto Protocol"}]}, {"text": ", which was adopted in 1997 and set binding emission reduction targets for its signatories. It was followed by the "}, {"url": "https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Paris Agreement"}]}, {"text": "that aims at \u2018keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius\u2019. According to the "}, {"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Headline-statements.pdf", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Headline-statements.pdf", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "IPCC Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5\u00baC"}]}, {"text": ", no or limited overshoot of 1.5 degrees Celsius requires reaching net zero around 2050. The EU\u2019s nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, under its "}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "2030 climate and energy framework"}]}, {"text": ". All key EU legislation for implementing this target was adopted by the end of 2018."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In 2020, the European Commission has put forward the "}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action/2030_ctp_en#:~:text=With%20the%202030%20Climate%20Target,target%20of%20at%20least%2040%25.", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action/2030_ctp_en#:~:text=With%20the%202030%20Climate%20Target,target%20of%20at%20least%2040%25.", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "2030 Climate Target Plan"}]}, {"text": " to further cut net GHG emissions by at least 55% by 2030 to set the EU on a responsible path to become climate neutral by 2050. The Commission will consequently review and, where necessary, propose to revise all relevant policy instruments to deliver additional greenhouse gas emissions reductions."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In order to assess the progress of the EU towards these international and internal commitments, the historic and projected GHG emission trends are assessed and presented in this indicator."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "h4", "children": [{"text": "Scientific references"}]}, {"type": "ul", "children": [{"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/", "target": "_self"}}}, "type": "a", "children": [{"text": "IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2014 (AR6) "}]}, {"text": "At regular intervals, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prepares comprehensive\u00a0Assessment Reports of scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to the understanding of human-induced climate change, potential impacts of climate change and options for mitigation and adaptation. Five Assessment Reports have been completed in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2014. The IPCC is now in its sixth assessment cycle producing the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) with contributions by its three Working Groups and a Synthesis Report, three Special Reports, and a refinement to its latest\u00a0Methodology Report. The Synthesis Report will be the last of the AR6 products, currently due for release in 2022."}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The\u00a0"}, {"url": "https://unfccc.int/", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://unfccc.int/", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "UNFCCC"}]}, {"text": "\u00a0sets an ultimate objective of stabilising GHG concentrations 'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.' The European Union, as a party to the UNFCCC, reports annually on the GHG emissions within the area covered by its Member States. The\u00a0Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory and inventory report, officially submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat, is prepared on behalf of the European Commission (DG CLIMA) by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate change mitigation and energy (ETC/CME), supported by the Joint Research Centre and Eurostat.\n"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In 2007, EU leaders committed to a 20 % reduction in EU GHG emissions by 2020 on the basis of 1990 GHG emissions.\u00a0The\u00a0"}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2020_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2020_en", "target": "_self"}}, "title": "EU Climate and Energy Package"}, "children": [{"text": "EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package,"}]}, {"text": "\u00a0adopted in 2009, sets a two-fold legislative framework to achieve the 20 % GHG emission reduction objective:"}]}, {"type": "ul", "children": [{"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "a 21 % reduction of emissions covered under the EU ETS, compared with 2005 levels, to be achieved across the whole EU;"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "an effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10 % compared with 2005 levels, shared between the EU Member States through differentiated annual national GHG targets under the\u00a0"}, {"url": "http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/effort/index_en.htm", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/effort/index_en.htm", "target": "_self"}}, "title": "Effort Sharing Decision"}, "children": [{"text": "ESD"}]}, {"text": "."}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Building on the 2020 climate and energy package, the European Council adopted the\u00a0"}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "2030 climate and energy framework"}]}, {"text": ", which sets a target of a 40 % reduction in GHG emissions compared with 1990."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Very recently, as part of the\u00a0"}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "European Green Deal"}]}, {"text": ", the Commission\u00a0proposed\u00a0to raise the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target,\u00a0including emissions and removals, to at least 55% compared to 1990. This will enable the EU to move towards a\u00a0"}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "climate-neutral economy"}]}, {"text": "\u00a0by 2050. This new long-term objective is a key element of the European Green Deal and and in line with the EU\u2019s commitment to global climate action under the\u00a0"}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Paris Agreement"}]}, {"text": "."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "This indicator aims to present an assessment of the EU's progress towards its 2020, 2030 and 2050 ambitions under consideration of the trends of emissions covered under the ETS, ESD and LULUCF legislation.\u00a0The indicator is based on the official GHG inventories submitted by the EEA countries and the EU to the UNFCCC, as well as on the projected GHG emissions submitted by the Member States under the\u00a0"}, {"url": "http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32013R0525", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32013R0525", "target": "_self"}}, "title": "Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR)"}, "children": [{"text": "Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation 525/2013, MMR)"}]}, {"text": "."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "h4", "children": [{"text": "Targets"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "EU greenhouse gas targets 2020"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The unilateral 20 % GHG reduction target, in the context of the\u00a0"}, {"url": "http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/package/index_en.htm", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/package/index_en.htm", "target": "_self"}}, "title": "EU Climate and Energy Package"}, "children": [{"text": "EU Climate and Energy Package,"}]}, {"text": "\u00a0corresponds to a 14 % decrease in emissions between 2005 and 2020. The target is to be achieved both in the sectors covered by the EU ETS (21 % reduction in EU ETS emissions compared with 2005 levels) and in the other sectors covered by national emission targets under the ESD."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The annual ESD targets used in the indicator are\u00a0consistent with the\u00a0EU ETS scope for the third trading period (2013\u20132020), based on:"}]}, {"type": "ul", "children": [{"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "Commission Decision 2013/162/EU of 26 March 2013 on determining Member States' annual emissions allocations for the period 2013-2020, pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council (OJ L 90, 28.3.2013, p. 106-110);"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "Commission Implementing Decision 2013/634/EU of 31 October 2013 on the adjustments to Member States' annual emissions allocations for the period 2013-2020, pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council (OJ L 292, 1.11.2013, p. 19-22)."}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "EU greenhouse gas targets "}]}, {"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "2030"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "In October 2015, the European Council adopted the '2030 climate and energy framework', setting a binding target to cut emissions in the EU territory by at least 40 % below 1990 levels by 2030 with emission cuts of:"}]}, {"type": "ul", "children": [{"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "43 % in the EU-ETS sectors (compared with 2005);"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "30 % in the sectors covered by Effort Sharing legislation (compared with 2005)."}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "As part of as part of the\u00a0"}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "European Green Deal"}]}, {"text": ", the Commission\u00a0proposed\u00a0to raise the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target,\u00a0including emissions and removals, to at least 55% compared to 1990. This will enable the EU to move towards a\u00a0"}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "climate-neutral economy"}]}, {"text": "\u00a0by 2050. This new long-term objective is a key element of the European Green Deal and in line with the EU\u2019s commitment to global climate action under the\u00a0"}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Paris Agreement"}]}, {"text": "."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "strong", "children": [{"text": "Related policy documents "}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "ul", "children": [{"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/effort/index_en.htm", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/effort/index_en.htm", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "2014 greenhouse gas emissions covered by Decision 406/2009/EC (the ESD)"}]}, {"text": ": the Effort Sharing Decision establishes binding annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013\u20132020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System ( EU ETS ), such as transport (except aviation and international maritime shipping), buildings, agriculture and waste. The Effort Sharing Decision forms part of a set of policies and measures on climate change and energy \u2013 known as the\u00a0 climate and energy package \u00a0- that will help move Europe towards a low-carbon economy and increase its energy security. "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action/2030_ctp_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action/2030_ctp_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "2030 Climate Target Plan"}]}, {"text": ": with the 2030 Climate Target Plan, the Commission proposes to raise the EU's ambition on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. The objectives of the plan are: Set a more ambitious and cost-effective path to achieving climate neutrality by 2050; Stimulate the creation of green jobs and continue the EU\u2019s track record of cutting greenhouse gas emissions whilst growing its economy; Encourage international partners to increase their ambition to limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5\u00b0C and avoid the most severe consequences of climate change. "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:32013D0162", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:32013D0162", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Commission Decision 2013/162/EU"}]}, {"text": ": Commission Decision of 26 March 2013 on determining Member States\u2019 annual emission allocations for the period from 2013 to 2020 pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/;jsessionid=6D0vT7CL5vy2nkbpsPvb24bnyQYJqD6f2L8FnDp1dRlWxT8xTL5L%21-1156949027?uri=CELEX:32013D0634", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/;jsessionid=6D0vT7CL5vy2nkbpsPvb24bnyQYJqD6f2L8FnDp1dRlWxT8xTL5L%21-1156949027?uri=CELEX:32013D0634", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Commission Implementing Decision 2013/634/EU"}]}, {"text": ": Commission Implementing Decision of 31 October 2013 on the adjustments to Member States\u2019 annual emission allocations for the period from 2013 to 2020 pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "http://europa.eu.int/eur-lex/pri/en/oj/dat/2002/l_130/l_13020020515en00010020.pdf", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://europa.eu.int/eur-lex/pri/en/oj/dat/2002/l_130/l_13020020515en00010020.pdf", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Council Decision (2002/358/EC) of 25 April 2002"}]}, {"text": ": Council Decision (2002/358/EC) of 25 April 2002 concerning the approval, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the joint fulfilment of commitments thereunder. "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "European Climate Law proposal"}]}, {"text": " aims to enshrine the 2050 climate-neutrality objective into EU law "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2014/10/pdf/European-Council-%2823-and-24-October-2014%29-Conclusions-on-2030-Climate-and-Energy-Policy-Framework/", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2014/10/pdf/European-Council-%2823-and-24-October-2014%29-Conclusions-on-2030-Climate-and-Energy-Policy-Framework/", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "European Council 23-24/10/2014 \u2014 Conclusions on 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework"}]}, {"text": ": the European Council endorsed four targets: a binding EU target of 40% less greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 - a target of at least 27% renewable energy consumption \u2014 a 27% energy efficiency increase - the completion of the internal energy market by achieving the existing electricity interconnection target of 10% and linking the energy islands \u2014 in particular the Baltic states and the Iberian Peninsula On energy security, the European Council endorsed further measures to reduce the EU's energy dependence and increase the security of its electricity and gas supplies."}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change"}]}, {"text": " adopted at COP3 in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997."}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Paris Agreement"}]}, {"text": ": Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session, held in Paris from 30 November to 11 December 2015. "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:OJ.L_.2018.156.01.0026.01.ENG", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:OJ.L_.2018.156.01.0026.01.ENG", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Regulation (EU) 2018/842"}]}, {"text": " of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 2018 on binding annual greenhouse gas emission reductions by Member States from 2021 to 2030 contributing to climate action to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement and amending Regulation (EU) No 525/2013. "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1568035568207&uri=CELEX:02013R0525-20181224", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1568035568207&uri=CELEX:02013R0525-20181224", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on a mechanism for monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas emissions"}]}, {"text": " and for reporting other information at national and Union level relevant to climate change and repealing Decision No\u00a0280/2004/EC."}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "The European Green Deal"}]}, {"text": " is a roadmap for\u00a0making the EU's economy sustainable; aims to turn climate and environmental challenges into opportunities across all policy areas. "}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"url": "http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/reporting_requirements/items/2759.php", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/reporting_requirements/items/2759.php", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "UNFCCC"}]}, {"text": " reporting guidelines on annual inventories."}]}]}]

Frequency of dissemination Time interval at which the indicator is published (in years, from 1 to 5). E.g. use 1 if it is published yearly, 2 if it is published every 2 years and so on.

Accuracy and uncertainties Closeness of computations or estimates to the unknown exact or true values that the statistics were intended to measure; closeness of the initial estimated value to the subsequent estimated value. Includes, among others, comparability (geographical and over time).

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At the same time, the EU is making an effort to promote and support the use of higher tier methodologies across Member States. At the EU level, and for most of the key categories of the EU inventory, more than 75 % of the EU emissions are calculated using higher tier methodologies, resulting in lower uncertainty rates."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "(b) Global warming potential"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "According to the IPCC, the GWP values used in the IPCC AR4 have an uncertainty of \u00b135 % for the 5-95 % (90 %) confidence range."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Projected greenhouse gas emissions"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The methodology proposed consists of simple additions of data reported by Member States. However, uncertainty arises from the following:"}]}, {"type": "ul", "children": [{"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "projections can be subject to updates that might not be reflected in the assessment if these updates were recently developed;"}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "the projections taken into account are fully consistent with Member State submissions under the MMR. However, other sets of projections with different data might have been published by countries (e.g. national allocation plans, national communications to the UNFCCC)."}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Several countries carry out sensitivity analyses on their projections."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "Approximated greenhouse gas inventory"}]}, {"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The uncertainty ranges estimated in the approximated GHG inventories are derived by comparing the official national data submitted to the UNFCCC in year X with the proxy estimates of the same year. The uncertainty for the approximated emissions at the EU level is estimated as the weighted mean of the differences described: weighted again by the relative contribution that each Member State makes to total EU-28 emissions. More details about these methodologies are provided each year in the 'Approximated GHG inventory report'."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "h4", "children": [{"text": "Data sets uncertainty"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The\u00a02006 IPCC Guidelines provide approaches on how Parties should estimate uncertainties, suggesting different values for the uncertainty of activity data and emission factors for most of the emission source categories. On the basis of this guidance, EU Member States and other EEA countries\u00a0perform their own assessment of the uncertainty of reported data and\u00a0provide an uncertainty analysis in the National Inventory Report to account for uncertainty per source category, as well as the total uncertainty of their national inventory."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Section (1.7) of the annual EU GHG inventory report considers the uncertainty evaluation, describing the methodology used to estimate it. The results suggest that the uncertainty level in the EU is about 6 % for total GHG emissions (including LULUCF).\u00a0"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Total EU-28 GHG emission trends are likely to be more accurate than individual absolute annual emission estimates, because the annual values are not independent of each other. The IPCC suggests that the uncertainty in total GHG emission trends is approximately 4-5 %. For the EU, the trend uncertainty\u00a0is\u00a0estimated to be close to 1 %. Total GHG emission estimates are quite reliable and the limited number of interpolations used to build the indicator do not introduce much uncertainty at the EU level."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Uncertainties\u00a0in the\u00a0projections\u00a0of GHG emissions can be significant but have not been assessed.\u00a0"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "h4", "children": [{"text": "Rationale uncertainty"}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "\u00a0The IPCC AR4\u00a0emphasises that:"}]}, {"type": "ul", "children": [{"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "Warming of the climate system is\u00a0"}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "unequivocal"}]}, {"text": "."}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "There is\u00a0"}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "high agreement\u00a0"}]}, {"text": "and\u00a0"}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "much evidence\u00a0"}]}, {"text": "that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades."}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would\u00a0"}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "very likely\u00a0"}]}, {"text": "be larger than those observed during the 20th century."}]}, {"type": "li", "children": [{"text": "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change."}]}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Words in bold represent calibrated expressions of uncertainty and confidence. Relevant terms are explained in the Box 'Treatment of uncertainty' in the introduction to the\u00a0"}, {"url": "http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf", "type": "a", "data": {"link": {"external": {"external_link": "http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf", "target": "_self"}}}, "children": [{"text": "AR4 Synthesis Report"}]}, {"text": ". In particular,\u00a0"}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "'very likely'"}]}, {"text": "\u00a0corresponds to a\u00a0"}, {"type": "b", "children": [{"text": "probability of occurrence higher than 90 %"}]}, {"text": ". This uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results)."}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}, {"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The high confidence in the responsibility of anthropogenic GHG emissions for the warming of the climate system re-emphasizes the relevance of monitoring and assessing GHG emissions trends in Europe."}]}]

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According to official data reported by Member States in 2022, EU GHG emissions were 32% lower in 2020 than in 1990, exceeding the EU\u2019s climate target by 12 percentage points. The steep decline in emissions observed in 2020, which was related to the COVID-19 pandemic, significantly contributed to this overshoot. Nonetheless, emission levels have been below the 2020 target since 2018. These achievements include emissions from international aviation and do not account for carbon sinks from the land use, land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF).", "@type": "slate", "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The EU surpassed its 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of 20%. According to official data reported by Member States in 2022, EU GHG emissions were 32% lower in 2020 than in 1990, exceeding the EU\u2019s climate target by 12 percentage points. The steep decline in emissions observed in 2020, which was related to the COVID-19 pandemic, significantly contributed to this overshoot. Nonetheless, emission levels have been below the 2020 target since 2018. These achievements include emissions from international aviation and do not account for carbon sinks from the land use, land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF)."}]}]}, "deb7e84d-d2c8-4491-90fa-3dc65fe02143": {"plaintext": "", "required": true, "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}], "readOnlySettings": true, "fixed": true, "@type": "slate", "instructions": {"data": " ", "content-type": "text/html", "encoding": "utf8"}}, "9e73a3bc-f049-4b53-a792-59d30fabe92f": {"plaintext": "Preliminary emissions data for 2021 indicate a post-pandemic rebound, though greenhouse gas emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels. EU greenhouse gas emissions increased by 5% in 2021 compared to 2020, largely driven by the economic recovery observed when COVID-19 restrictions were lifted across Europe. Another factor contributing to the recent emissions increase was rising gas prices in the second half of 2021. The resulting shift from gas to lignite and hard coal for power generation continues in 2022 with growing uncertainties over Russian gas imports to the EU.", "@type": "slate", "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Preliminary emissions data for 2021 indicate a post-pandemic rebound, though greenhouse gas emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels. EU greenhouse gas emissions increased by 5% in 2021 compared to 2020, largely driven by the economic recovery observed when COVID-19 restrictions were lifted across Europe. Another factor contributing to the recent emissions increase was rising gas prices in the second half of 2021. 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Preliminary estimates for 2021 suggest that the sink decreased in size by 8% compared with 2020. Over the last decade, the carbon sink within the EU has shrunk by about a third. Measures currently in place are not projected to reverse this trend. Through implementation of additional planned measures, the EU\u2019s carbon sink is projected to increase between 2021 and 2030.", "@type": "slate", "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "At the EU level, the LULUCF sector represented a net carbon sink of about 230Mt CO"}, {"type": "sub", "children": [{"text": "2"}]}, {"text": "e in 2020, corresponding to the absorption of 7% of total GHG emissions. Preliminary estimates for 2021 suggest that the sink decreased in size by 8% compared with 2020. Over the last decade, the carbon sink within the EU has shrunk by about a third. Measures currently in place are not projected to reverse this trend. Through implementation of additional planned measures, the EU\u2019s carbon sink is projected to increase between 2021 and 2030."}]}]}, "9e891fc1-8221-436b-82d5-48a349d5f2f7": {"plaintext": "By 2030, EU projections submitted by Member States point to a 29% reduction in Effort Sharing emissions and a 47% reduction in ETS emissions compared to 2005 levels. Updated GHG projections will be reported by Member States in 2023.", "@type": "slate", "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "By 2030, EU projections submitted by Member States point to a 29% reduction in Effort Sharing emissions and a 47% reduction in ETS emissions compared to 2005 levels. Updated GHG projections will be reported by Member States in 2023."}]}]}, "d3d49723-14e5-4663-b346-37ee3572f28d": {"plaintext": "", "required": true, "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}], "readOnlySettings": true, "fixed": true, "@type": "slate", "instructions": {"data": " ", "content-type": "text/html", "encoding": "utf8"}}, "73d15dfc-6bc1-422f-a3ff-830da8c79ffc": {"plaintext": "The \u2018cap-and-trade\u2019 system of the ETS covers large power stations, large industrial plants, large district heating plants and aviation, representing about 40% of total EU emissions. ETS emissions have decreased by 37% between 2005 and 2021, largely driven by the decarbonisation of the EU power sector. A particularly significant annual emissions reduction of 12% took place in 2020, strongly related to the measures put in place to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. This emissions have since rebounded by 7% in 2021.", "@type": "slate", "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "The \u2018cap-and-trade\u2019 system of the ETS covers large power stations, large industrial plants, large district heating plants and aviation, representing about 40% of total EU emissions. ETS emissions have decreased by 37% between 2005 and 2021, largely driven by the decarbonisation of the EU power sector. A particularly significant annual emissions reduction of 12% took place in 2020, strongly related to the measures put in place to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. This emissions have since rebounded by 7% in 2021. "}]}]}, "1a6e418b-e9e9-42f9-8795-8130071b8db3": {"plaintext": "Three key EU policies address GHG emissions and removals: the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), the Effort Sharing legislation and the legislation on emissions and removals from LULUCF.", "@type": "slate", "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Three key EU policies address GHG emissions and removals: the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), the Effort Sharing legislation and the legislation on emissions and removals from LULUCF."}]}]}, "2b84066f-003f-472d-9faf-d7a6fc435dc1": {"plaintext": "National GHG reduction targets are governed by the Effort Sharing legislation. The national targets cover sectors, such as transport, buildings, non-ETS industry, agriculture and waste. Effort sharing emissions have fallen by 13% between 2005 and 2021, much less than the reductions seen in ETS emissions.", "@type": "slate", "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "National GHG reduction targets are governed by the Effort Sharing legislation. The national targets cover sectors, such as transport, buildings, non-ETS industry, agriculture and waste. Effort sharing emissions have fallen by 13% between 2005 and 2021, much less than the reductions seen in ETS emissions. 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examined period and whether or not it helps to achieve the associated policy objective, which can be either quantitative or directional.In the absence of a policy objective, it explains whether the trend is in the right or wrong direction in relation to the issue examined.If there has been an important change over the most recent period of the time series, e.g. over the last year, this is indicated too.Furthermore, if there is a quantitative target, it also indicates whether we are on track to meet it and if not what are the reasons preventing that, e.g. socio-economic drivers, implementation gap etc.", "content-type": "text/html", "encoding": "utf8"}, "fixed": true, "data": {"blocks": {"2679fdcc-60be-47ea-90b6-435837793600": {"plaintext": "", "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": ""}]}], "readOnlySettings": true, "placeholder": "Summary", "@type": "slate", "instructions": {"data": " ", "content-type": "text/html", "encoding": "utf8"}}, "446d4fca-c7e5-4b68-b6ef-9e5055ad8a3d": 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Preliminary estimates indicate that emissions rebounded in 2021 but remain below pre-COVID-19 levels. The 2021 emissions increase was driven by the recovery from the pandemic and a greater uptake of energy sources with higher emissions in the second half of 2021. To bring the 2030 target within reach, EU Member States will need to align their ambitions and efforts, in order to achieve the new net 55% reduction.", "@type": "slate", "value": [{"type": "p", "children": [{"text": "Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU decreased by 32% between 1990 and 2020, a notable overachievement of the EU\u2019s 2020 reduction target of 20%. Preliminary estimates indicate that emissions rebounded in 2021 but remain below pre-COVID-19 levels. The 2021 emissions increase was driven by the recovery from the pandemic and a greater uptake of energy sources with higher emissions in the second half of 2021. To bring the 2030 target within reach, EU Member States will need to align their ambitions and efforts, in order to achieve the new net 55% reduction."}]}]}}, "blocks_layout": {"items": ["446d4fca-c7e5-4b68-b6ef-9e5055ad8a3d"]}}, "@type": "group", "allowedBlocks": ["slate"]}}, "blocks_layout": {"items": ["ddde07aa-4e48-4475-94bd-e1a517d26eab", "ca212ba0-859e-4e67-b610-debe0d498b74", "9f452ca7-172a-42e0-a699-8df0714c89f8", "12d8c532-f7ad-43fe-ada7-330b2d7a7a39"]}}, "@type": "group", "block": "8821fb1b-5a9e-4088-b674-b0f2f960cf3b", "allowedBlocks": []}}

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For references, please go to https://eea.europa.eu./ims/total-greenhouse-gas-emission-trends or scan the QR code.

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