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Environmental information systems
Key messages
International intra-EU and domestic freight transport activity in the EU-27 has significantly increased in the last 27 years, peaking at a total of 3,471 billion tonne-km in 2022. Freight transport activity was only marginally affected by COVID-19 and, by 2021, had already completely recovered.
Road is the dominant modality for freight transport; 53.8% of all freight in 2022 was carried by road, an increase of 6.8 percentage points since 1995.
This level of activity, its past trend and the projected increase make the reduction of environmental impacts of the freight mobility system, extremely challenging.
It is important to complement technologically focused policy measures in this area by managing demand whenever possible, e.g. by shifting to transport modes with a lower overall environmental impact (i.e. modes which are less carbon-intensive and have lower pollutant emissions) or by limiting the inefficiencies associated with goods distribution (such as, for example, empty runs).
In 2022, a total of approximately 3,471 billion tonne-km were travelled in the EU-27 using motorised transport modes. This, as shown in Figure 3, represents an increase of 44.6% compared to 1995, despite the effects of the 2007-2008 financial crisis (EEA, 2010). Unlike passenger transport, the freight sector was only marginally impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, in 2020 in EU-27, 3,280 billion tonne-km were transported, a decrease of only 3.6% compared to the previous year. Overall, freight transport activity increased at a CAGR of 1.4% for 27 years in the 1995-2022 period.
Importantly, demand for freight transport is expected to increase further, at least according to the recent MIX-FF55 scenario from the EC (EC, 2021d) for modes for which projections are available (see Figure 4). Overall freight activity from heavy and light commercial vehicles, rail and domestic navigation is expected to reach around 2,377 billion tonne-km in 2025 and 2,999 billion tonne-km in 2030. These estimates correspond to increases of 18.8% and 29.6% in 2025 and 2030 respectively compared to the same scenario in 2015.
As for passenger transport, reducing the environmental impacts of the freight mobility system, including decarbonising it, is likely to be extremely challenging given the current level of activity, the past trend and projected increase. One potentially effective strategy to mitigate the impacts from freight mobility would be to manage demand, e.g. by promoting shifts towards transport modes with lower environmental impacts or by limiting the inefficiencies associated with goods distribution (such as, for example, empty runs). Such measures would complement more technologically focused policy measures.
Figure 3. EU-27 freight transport activity for different transport modes
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Figure 4. EU-27 freight transport activity for different transport modes according to the FF55-MIX scenario
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Road freight transport
Road freight transport activity in the EU-27 reached a new historical high of 1,866 billion tonne-km in 2022, representing an increase of 65.6% since 1995. As shown in Figure 3, the sector was marginally affected by the pandemic and completely recovered in 2021. Figure 3 also indicates that road transport is the dominant method for moving goods within the EU-27, with a share of 53.8% which has increased by 6.8 percentage points over the 1995-2022 period.
According to the MIX-FF55 scenario mentioned above, freight road transport is expected to remain dominant in the EU-27 in the near future. It is estimated that 1,945 billion tonne-km and 2,027 billion tonne-km will be travelled in 2025 and 2030 respectively, corresponding to an increase of 19.4% in 2025 and 24.5% in 2030 compared to 2015. The scenario also estimates that in 2030, 67.6% of freight transport activity will occur by road.
Waterborne freight transport
Domestic and international intra-EU maritime freight transport activity reached approximately 974 billion tonne-km in 2022 in the EU-27. This represents a share of 28.0% of all freight transport activity. While it has not grown as much as road transport, the activity in the sector has increased by 45.0% since 1995.
Inland waterways activity is small when compared to other transport modes and oscillated in the 1995-2022 period; from 2013 it has been decreasing gradually. Overall, the share of activity for inland waterways decreased in the period. It is geographically concentrated in a limited number of Member States, with six countries (Germany, Netherlands, Romania, Belgium, France and Bulgaria) accounting for about 95.7% of transport by inland waterways. It constituted around 122 billion tonne-km in the EU-27 in 2022, which represents an increase of only 0.1% compared to 1995. This corresponds to a share in overall transport activity of 3.5%.
First in the European Green Deal (EC, 2019) and then in the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy (EC, 2020), the EC highlighted the importance of a shift so that a substantial proportion of inland freight is carried by rail and waterways rather than road. A milestone delineated in the Strategy is to increase inland waterways and short sea shipping activity by 25% by 2030 and by 50% by 2050. It is important to note, however, that this does not directly imply a change in the transport mix, since overall transport demand and other transport modes could also grow in the same period. In addition, inland waterways could be particularly challenged by low water levels resulting from droughts which are expected to be more frequent in the future due to global warming (EEA, 2024c).
According to the MIX-FF55 scenario, domestic navigation (which includes inland waterways and domestic maritime) is expected to reach 329 and 371 billion tonne-km in 2025 and 2030 respectively, corresponding to an increase of 13.5% in 2025 and 28.1% in 2030 in comparison with 2015.
Rail freight transport
Freight rail activity oscillated during the 1995-2022 period. It peaked at approximately 431 billion tonne-km in 2007 and reached around 413 billion tonne-km in 2022; this represents an increase of 10.3% since 1995. Like road transport, this sector was only marginally affected by the pandemic and completely recovered in 2021, as shown in Figure 3. Based on the available data, rail is the third most important transport mode in the freight sector, with a share of 11.9% of all tonne-kilometres in 2022. In spite of this, its modal share has decreased by 3.7 percentage points since 1995. It is worth noting that there are complexities involved in collecting information on rail freight activity, especially in the case of foreign railway undertakings, i.e. companies that are based in one country and operate in another. It is possible that a fraction of these activities is not fully captured by national statistics. The European Railway Agency has recently published a new assessment on the environmental impacts of the railway sector in the EU-27, with additional information on the railway sector (ERA, 2024).
Despite the discussed decrease in modal share, the MIX-FF55 scenario estimates a significant increase in freight rail transport this decade. The estimation is that 476 billion tonne-km and 600 billion tonne-km will be travelled in 2025 and 2030 respectively, corresponding to an increase of 20.1% in 2025 and 51.4% in 2030 compared to 2015. An increased focus on rail freight transport, as discussed above, is also supported in the EC’s Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy (EC, 2020).
Others
The use of oil pipelines decreased in the 1995-2022 period; it stood at approximately 100 billion tonne-km in 1995 then peaked at around 130 billion tonne-km in 2005 before dipping to about 90 billion tonne-km in 2022. Overall, this indicates a 10% decrease during the 1995-2022 period.
A very small percentage of overall freight activity (0.1%) is provided by domestic and international intra-EU aviation. Though this activity represents only a small share, it has increased significantly, i.e. by 62%, in the 1995-2022 period, reaching 2 billion tonne-km in 2022.
- ↵Eurostat defines a tonne-kilometre as a ‘unit of measure of freight transport which represents the transport of one tonne of goods (including packaging and tare weights of intermodal transport units) by a given transport mode (road, rail, air, sea, inland waterways, pipeline etc.) over a distance of one kilometre. Only the distance on the national territory of the reporting country is taken into account for national, international and transit transport’. 100 tonne-km can refer to one tonne travelling 100 km or, for example, five tonnes travelling 20 km (Eurostat, 2023d).