Energy

In 2022, the final energy consumption of all the transport sectors in EU-27, including international bunkers, was 1.48e+07 TJ (or 354.6 Mtoe in different units), representing a 31.0% increase compared to 1990, as shown in Figure 5. This is equivalent to a CAGR of 0.8%.

In 2022, transport accounted for 36.2% of all final energy consumption in the EU-27. As noted when discussing passenger transport activity in the dedicated section and Figure 1, and to a minor extent in the case of freight too, as shown in Figure 3, these numbers still reflect a significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the recovery already evident in 2020-2021. In fact, in 2019, the final energy consumption of the whole transport sector in the EU-27 was 1.55e+07 TJ (370.6 Mtoe), an increase of 36.9% compared to 1990. Thus, final energy demand from the whole transport sector in the EU-27 rose at a CAGR of 1.1% for 29 years in the 1990-2019 period. Importantly, as indicated in Figure 5, the overall final energy consumption of transport is estimated to reach approximately 1.30e+07 TJ (310.1 Mtoe) in 2030. This would correspond to an increase of 12.5% compared to 2022, but to a decrease of 16.3% compared to 2019.

Only a small proportion of the final energy used in transport is derived from renewable sources (for further information see EEA, 2023i). According to the accounting rules of the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II, Directive 2018/2001/EU) (EU, 2018a) the share of renewable energy used in transport in the EU (RES-T) was 9.11% in 2021 and of 9.62% in 2022 (Eurostat, 2023c). According to the recently adopted revised Renewable Energy Directive, REDIII (Directive (EU) 2023/2413), (EU, 2023a) Member States must ensure that either the share of renewable energy in transport is at least 29% or that the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity is reduced by at least 14.5%, compared to a baseline, both by 2030. It is worth noting that renewable fuels used for aviation and in the maritime sector also count towards the targets in the REDIII, with higher multipliers than those applied to fuels used in the road and rail sectors. Renewable fuels and renewable electricity count towards the emission intensity reduction target based on their GHG emission reductions.

Figure 5. EU-27 final energy consumption for different transport modes

1Absolute (TJ)2Shares — transport (%)3Shares — total (%)

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Road transport

In the road sector, final energy consumption increased steadily, up to 1.13e+07 TJ in 2007, as shown in Figure 6. Over the next few years, also in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, final energy consumption decreased progressively, reaching a minimum of 1.04e+07 TJ in 2013, a drop of 8.4% compared to 2007. It increased again after this, returning to 2007 levels in 2019.

In 2020, there was another significant drop in final energy consumption in the road sector, during the COVID-19 pandemic; this was followed by a recovery the following year. In 2022, final energy consumption reached 1.10e+07 TJ, which was only 2.6% lower than 2019 levels. In the same year, road transport accounted for 74.1% of the final energy consumed by all the transport sectors and for 26.8% of all EU-27 final energy consumption, as shown in Figure 5.

Figure 6 shows that only 6.7% of this energy comes from renewable sources or electricity; the rest is of fossil origin. In this context, it is also important to notice that electricity is not necessarily generated from renewable sources and not all biofuels can be considered carbon neutral (ECA, 2023). More specifically, 65.4% of the overall road transport final energy consumption in 2022 was derived from diesel fuel; this represents an increase of 21.6 percentage points of its share over the 1990-2022 period. In the same timeframe, the share of gasoline in the energy mix used in road transport decreased by 29.6 percentage points, down to 25% in 2022. It is worth noting that there are different fiscal regimes for the two fuels, with diesel taxes generally lower. This may partially explain these trends (EEA, 2022b, Burger and Bretschneider, 2022, EC, 2024h).

The use of other fossil fuels such as LPG and natural gas expanded in the 1990-2022 period, though their combined share remained small in 2022. The use of LPG increased by 97.3%, reaching a share of 2.0% with 2.24e+05 TJ consumed in 2022. The consumption of natural gas had a 0.7% share (7.81e+04 TJ) in 2022 but in spite of its limited use overall, its consumption was 8.6 times higher in 2022 than in 1990.

The consumption of biofuels has also increased significantly; in 2022, approximately 5.3 times more energy from biofuels were being used than in 2005. This represents a share of 6.4% and 7.01e+05 TJ in 2022. This uptake was also stimulated by the targets included in the Fuel Quality Directive (EU, 1998), i.e. a 6% reduction in GHG emission intensities of fuels sold in the EU-27 by 2020 compared to 2010 levels. This target does not, however, include the effects of indirect land use change or, in other words, any increase in GHG emissions associated with the conversion of land (such as forests and wetlands) to a different use such as the production of food and feed crops. The directive has now been amended by the revised Renewable Energy Directive (EU, 2023a).

The consumption of electricity in road transport is still very low, with a share of 0.3% in 2021. In absolute terms, the demand for electricity in 2022 was 3.73e+04 TJ, which was 6.2 times higher than in 2018. Despite the relevant challenges associated with its large-scale deployment in transport, electrification is expected to become more significant in the future as a result of the need to decarbonise and in response to the policies that have been put in place for the sector. These include the separate EU Emission Trading System (ETS) for road transport, the tightening of the CO₂ emission performance standards for new light and heavy-duty vehicles, the revision of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and the new Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR).

The EC’s MIX-FF55 scenario, as shown in Figure 5 estimates that final energy consumption for road transport will decrease by 8.8% in 2025 and 19.7% in 2030, compared to 2022, though current trends, discussed above, suggest that the 2025 estimation is unlikely to be met. Considering that road transport volumes are projected to increase according to the same scenario, this implies a significant increase in the energy efficiency of the sector, which is assumed to be delivered through large scale electrification. Nevertheless, road transport is expected to remain the largest consumer of energy in the sector; in 2030, it is expected to have a share of 68.0%. This corresponds to 24.4% of the final energy consumption of the EU-27.

Figure 6. EU-27 final energy consumption for different fuels used in road transport

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Rail transport

Final energy consumption in the rail sector has decreased by 31.5% in the 1990-2022 period (-28.9% in the 1990-2019 period); it was approximately 2.14e+05 TJ in 2022. This is equivalent to a CAGR of -1.2%. The decrease in final energy consumption in the 1990-2019 period was notable since it occured in spite of a concurrent increase in passenger activity and only a small variation in freight activity (see Figure 1 and Figure 3). Final energy consumption in the rail sector in 2022 corresponded to approximately 1.4% of final energy demand for all transport sectors combined and 0.5% of overall final energy consumption in the EU-27.

The decrease in final energy consumption is mainly due to a reduction in the use of fossil fuels such as diesel (-68.8%), while the use of electricity has remained approximately constant with an average consumption of 1.74e+05 TJ annually, as shown in Figure 7. In 2022, electricity accounted for 78.9% of the final energy consumption for the sector. The consumption of biofuels was limited, accounting for only approximately 0.7%.

As already discussed, the EC’s Smart and Sustainable Mobility Strategy (EC, 2020) calls for a significant expansion of the rail activity. This is expected to have an impact on the overall energy requirements of the sector. At present, there are no exhaustive data on the use of renewable energy at EU level for the railway sector, though the EC has established a platform to gather such information. Estimates for infrastructure managers representing 85% of the EU rail network suggest that around 52% of traction energy (in kWh) used in 2022 was coming from renewable sources. These data, although incomplete, give a general understanding of the sector’s current situation (EC, 2022a).

The EC’s MIX-FF55 scenario estimates that the final energy consumption for the rail sector will increase by 11.9% and 27.3% in 2025 and 2030 respectively compared to 2022. Based on such estimates, in 2030, the final energy consumption for the sector will grow to approximately 2.1% of final energy demand for the whole transport system in the EU-27 and 0.75% of overall EU-27 final energy consumption. This is in line with the already anticipated expected growth of rail activity.

Figure 7. EU-27 Final energy consumption for different fuels in rail transport

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Waterborne transport

Final energy consumption for domestic and international navigation (waterborne transport) in the EU-27 peaked in 2007 at 2.43e+06 TJ, as shown in Figure 8. This was followed by a decrease of around 25.0% in the 2007-2014 period. This was in part related to the 2007-2008 financial crisis (EEA, 2010), one effect of which was also a decrease in the average operating speed of vessels (IMO, 2014).

More recently, in 2018, energy consumption for the sector reached a new high of 1.99e+06 TJ. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a 10.0% decrease in final energy consumption between 2019 and 2020.

Overall, in the 1990-2019 period, final energy consumption in the sector increased by 23.4% and it increased by 20.5% between 1990 and 2022. Consumption in 2022 was approximately 1.93e+06 TJ, corresponding to a share of 11.9% of final energy demand for transport and a 4.7% of overall final energy consumption in the EU-27 (Figure 5). International navigation bunkers accounted for 91.1% of the overall energy consumed in waterborne transport in the same year.

Waterborne transport currently makes very little use of renewable energy vectors; only 1.0% of all energy used in 2022 came from renewable sources and all of that was derived from biofuels. Indeed, almost all the final energy consumption in the sector is covered by either marine fuel oil, 67.8%, or diesel, 29.7%. Methane has been increasingly used as fuel in the sector; in 2022, it represented 0.3% of the final energy consumption, an increase of 3 times since 2017. As will be discussed in Figure 11 in the climate section, non-combused methane emissions in the sector increased as a result of this. A shift in the mix of machinery used across the fleet in the period, i.e. from conventional steam turbines used in LNG carriers to Otto-cycle engines, also contributed to this increase in methane emissions (IMO, 2021).

The FuelEU Maritime Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1805) (EU, 2023f) requires the average GHG emission intensity of the energy used on board a ship to decrease over time, by at least 2% by 2025 up to at least 80% by 2050, compared to average carbon intensity in 2020 (91.16 gCO₂e/MJ). The regulation includes incentives for the use of so-called renewable fuels of non-biological origin (synthetic fuels or e-fuels) with high decarbonisation potential (Council of the EU, 2023). In addition, the EU ETS has been extended to cover CO₂ emissions (and CH₄ and N₂O emissions from 2026) from all large ships (of 5000 gross tonnage and above) calling at EU ports, with the intention of contributing to reduce the price difference between alternative fuels and traditional maritime fuels.

As shown in Figure 5, according to the MIX-FF55 scenario, the final energy consumption for waterborne transport is forecast to increase by 3.9% in 2025 compared to 2022 and to remain largely stable thereafter until 2030. International navigation is expected to increase by 3.3% from 2022 to 2030, while domestic navigation is expected to increase by 10.5% in the same period. Under this scenario, final energy consumption for waterborne transport will account for approximately 15.5% of the final energy consumption for transport and 5.5% of the overall final energy demand in the EU-27 (including international bunkers) in 2030.

Figure 8. EU-27 final energy consumption for different fuels in waterborne transport

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Aviation

Final energy consumption for aviation (including international bunkers) more than doubled in the 1990-2019 period, as shown in Figure 9. Energy consumption peaked at 2.02e+06 TJ in 2019, with international aviation bunkers accounting for approximately 86.5% of the total. In 2019, aviation accounted for 13.0% of final energy consumption of the whole transport system and for 4.1% of overall final energy demand in the EU-27. In 2020, the sector was significantly impacted by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic; final energy demand dropped by 56.4%, in line with the reduction in activity (see the section on passenger transport activity, Figure 1, for domestic and international intra-EU aviation). Final energy consumption increased again in 2022, reaching 1.70e+06 TJ, approximately 84.1% of the amount consumed in 2019.

Currently, the use of sustainable fuels in aviation is negligible (EEA, 2023b). Within the Fit for 55 policy package (EC, 2021b), a support mechanism and a minimum supply mandate aim to gradually increase the uptake of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) in the aviation sector are present. This is regarded as a means to reduce GHG emissions in the aviation sector. However, it should be noted that the extent to which SAF can deliver reductions in GHG emissions varies depending, among other factors, on the fuel considered, its production process and the feedstock used to produce it (Watson et al., 2024, Zhao et al., 2021, Uludere Aragon et al., 2023).

The EU ETS Directive (EU, 2023c) uses two mechanisms to create economic incentives for the adoption of alternative sustainable fuels: it considers these fuels as having zero carbon emissions and also sets aside allowances to cover the price premium compared to fossil fuels. This EU ETS-financed support has been available since 1 January 2024.

The ReFuelEU Aviation regulation (EU, 2023g) requires a progressive increase in the supply of SAF at all EU airports. In 2025, 2% of all aviation fuel available at EU airports must be SAF and this proportion must rise to 70% by 2050. From 2030, 1.2% of the SAF supplied should be synthetic aviation fuel (i.e. 0.07% of aviation fuel supplied at European airports), increasing to 35% by 2050 (i.e. 24.5% of aviation fuel supplied at European airports). The regulation applies to aircraft operators, EU airports and their managing bodies, and aviation fuel suppliers. It covers commercial air transport flights departing from EU airports, with certain exceptions and exemptions. The regulation applies to all EU airports with more than 800,000 passengers or more than 100,000 tons of freight traffic in the previous reporting period (i.e. the calendar year preceding the reporting year) and which are not situated in an outermost region. Member States have the discretion to be more ambitious, however. For example, they can include airports that do not fall within the scope outlined above. The regulation also includes a transition period, allowing aviation fuel suppliers to supply the minimum shares of SAF as a weighted average across all EU airports until 2034.

In addition, under the revised ETS Directive, additional resources to support the electrification of aviation and actions to reduce overall climate impacts from the sector should be made available. Indeed, under the revised ETS Directive Member States must use all ETS revenues for climate action, energy transformation and to address the social challenges of carbon pricing.

As shown in Figure 5, the EC’s MIX-FF55 scenario estimates that the final energy consumption of the aviation sector will increase again in the coming years to reach 1.89e+06 TJ and 1.87e+06 TJ in 2025 and 2030 respectively. This is approximately equivalent to 2017 levels, with a decrease of 6.6% and 7.7% compared to 2019. Under these assumptions, aviation will constitute approximately 14.4% of final energy consumption for transport in the EU-27 and 5.15% of overall energy demand (including international bunkers). Other scenarios are available, which estimate an increase in the number of flights until at least 2030 (Eurocontrol, 2024).

Figure 9. EU-27 Final energy consumption for different fuels in air transport

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