Age of the EU passenger cars

Since 2013, the average age of passenger cars in the EU has been steadily increasing over the years. It has increased by 10% from 10,9 years in 2013 to 12,3 years in 2022. This indicates that the lifespan of cars is slightly increasing in Europe.

These estimations are prone to the assumptions made. According to literature, the average lifespans of cars vary from 8 to 35 years, with significant regional variability. In Western Europe, cars last on average 18 years. Whereas in Eastern European countries, the average lifespan is 28 years (Held et al, 2021). Eurostat data supports this discrepancy, showing that only 8% of cars in Western Europe are older than 20 years, compared to 21-23% in other parts of Europe (Table 1).

Sales of new cars in grew steadily from 2013 until 2020 where sales suddenly dropped and continued to do so until 2022. Latest figures from ACEA, that the EU car market enjoyed a strong growth in 2023 but has not reached pre-pandemic sales levels. Reasons for this sudden drop in new car sales across Europe can in part be explained by the COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic impact and supply chain disruptions such as chip shortage have been problematic for the auto industry in Europe.

Overall, the average age of European passenger cars has been steadily increasing since 2013. This positive evolution can be attributed to several factors, which vary across European regions. The number of motor vehicles per person has grown by on average 1,4% per year over the last decade (mainly driven by Eastern and Southern countries). When considering transport demand (expressed in vehicles kilometres and for those countries reporting to Eurostat over the period 2013-2022), Eastern European countries have seen an annual increase of 4%. In contrast, Western European countries have experienced only a 0.7% growth in transport demand, which is lower than the increase in car stock. This suggests that Eastern Europeans use their cars more intensively, while Western Europeans drive them less.

A literature source observes a flow of older cars to lower-income countries. (Vanherle, K., Vergeer, R., 2016). In Europe, used cars are on average sold from West to East, where they tend to live longer due to different economic circumstances. This results in higher average car ages in Eastern European countries.

Technological advancements furthermore have improved vehicle durability, extending their lifespan. Experience with older electrical vehicles (or “EVs”) indicates that they are likely to last longer than conventional (combustion engine) vehicles. (Nieuwenhuis P, 2017)

Finally, the current transition in the personal transport system involves also a transition in ownership patterns from private ownership of cars to various types of mobility as a service concept i.e. cars being shared among many customers, might reduce the average car lifetime since its operational hours per day could increase substantially (Marletto, G. 2014; Nieuwenhuis P, 2017; Held et al, 2021).

An increase in the lifespan of cars, can from a circular and sustainability perspective be seen as a positive thing, if this means we our cars for longer and delay buying new ones. However, the slight increase in average age of passenger cars in Europe did not initially lead to lower sales of new cars, at least in the period 2013-2020.