Annex — methodological notes

Fit for 55 scenario (F55-MIX)

The Fit for 55 scenarios are three policy scenarios which serve as common tool to analyse the impacts of the various initiatives of the European Green Deal policy package. In this study, we rely on the MIX scenario which, even though it obviously cannot fully represent the most recent policies approved or announced at EU or national level, we considered it to be the closest to the current context. The scenario is described as follows:

“MIX: relying on both carbon price signal extension to road transport and buildings and strong intensification of energy and transport policies. With its uniform carbon price, it reflects either an extended and fully integrated EU ETS or an existing EU ETS and a new ETS established for road transport and buildings with emission caps set in line with cost-effective contributions of the respective sectors. Maritime transport sector is assumed to be included in the existing EU ETS in MIX” (EC, 2024f).

The MIX scenario is coherent with reducing GHG emission by at least 55% by 2030​ compared to 1990 levels (EEA, 2023f).

With additional measure scenario (WAM)

The WAM scenario relies on projections reported by Member States under Article 18 of the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union, whereby each MS developed an integrated national energy and climate plan (EU, 2018b). The resulting EU dataset is therefore a compilation of 27 different projections, rather than the result of a single modelling exercise. A comparison with such modelling exercise and the recent scenario developed by the Commission can be found here (EEA, 2023f).

Trends and projections in Europe 2023

WAM refers to the ‘With Additional Measures’ scenario (WAM) which is a compilation of 27 different projections, rather than the result of a single modelling exercise. The WAM scenario includes not only all policies and measures that were adopted or implemented at the time of reporting, but also all measures planned to reach the targets of the European Grean Deal, for the five dimensions of the Energy Union: decarbonisation, energy security, energy efficiency, internal energy market, and research, innovation & competitiveness (EC, 2024e). The definition of these ‘additional measures’ is, however, rather flexible and the way this is adopted is heterogeneous across Member States. To note, as before, EU-27 domestic aviation and domestic navigation always correspond to the sum of the corresponding emissions for each member state (EEA, 2023d). A comparison with such scenarios developed by member states and the recent MIX-FF55 developed by the Commission can be found in the Trends and Projections Report (EEA, 2023f).

Labelling

In this study several different datasets have been combined. To provide a coherent picture across the different sections and figures, the labels used in the original datasets have been harmonised. The following tables provide an overview of the original and the harmonised labels for each dataset used in this study along with the essential information regarding their definition. The reader is referred to the documentation of the datasets for the full descriptions and the corresponding accounting methodologies for transport activity, energy consumption, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions. To note that, because of the different granularity of the datasets as well as different accounting methodologies, it is not possible to have consistency across the difference chapters (see also Eurostat, 2022). As an example, it is not possible to provide final energy consumption, GHG and pollutant emissions considering the same sector definitions used to report activity. The time-series reported for each figure, correspond to the full extent available in the original data.

In particular, the shares of the transport sector emissions on overall emissions per pollutant are calculated based on all transport sub-sectors (as reported in the figures in the air pollution section of this report). This means that transport emissions include the sub-sectors that are included in the national totals and the ones that are not. Likewise, for consistency, the overall emissions reflected in the text and figures are the national total for the entire territory (based on fuel sold), including the transport sub-sectors that are not reported in the national totals. Sub-sectors that are not reported in the national totals are: “international aviation cruise”, “international maritime navigation”, and “domestic aviation cruise”.

Table 1: Original and harmonised labels for the data obtained from the 2024 Statistical Pocketbook (EC, 2024d) and used to report historical passenger and freight transport data. ‘Road’ includes national and international haulage by vehicles registered in the EU-27 until 2004 and from 2005 onwards, the activity performed by European drivers within the EU territory. ‘Sea’ and ‘Air’ refer to only domestic and international intra-EU-27 freight and passenger transport, as specified in the harmonised labels. To note that the accounting methodology for these sectors in the Statistical Pocketbook is different from the methodology used in Eurostat. The Statistical Pocket book considers a 50-50 approach (i.e in the case of international intra-EU flights 50% of all flights (incoming + outgoing) are attributed to the country of origin and 50 % of the flights are attributed to the country of destination). Eurostat, on the other hand uses a different methodology based on the activity performed in the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ): the activity is allocated proportionally to the countries, according to the distance passed in the EEZ of each country. The term “Oil pipelines” indicates the infrastructure used to move or petroleum products.

Table 2: Original and harmonised labels for the data obtained from the Eurostat’s complete energy balances (Eurostat, 2024) and used to report historic final energy consumption per sector and per fuel. To note, sector-fuel combinations that are labelled with the same harmonised label are grouped in a single category.

Table 3: Original and harmonised labels for the FF55-MIX scenario used to report activity and energy demand (EC, 2021d). To note, the original label ‘Intra-EU aviation’ refers to passenger transport activity, ‘Domestic aviation’ to final energy consumption, ‘Inland waterways and domestic maritime’ refers to both freight and passenger transport activity. ‘International maritime’ and ‘International aviation’ refer to the energy demand for international bunkers.

Table 4: Original and harmonised labels for the historical GHG emission inventories sent by countries to the UNFCCC and the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (EU Member States) as made available by the EEA (EEA, 2024f). To note, EU-27 domestic aviation and domestic navigation always correspond to the sum of the corresponding emissions for each member state.

Table 5: Original and harmonised labels for the GHG emissions projections that Member States report as required by the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999). The dataset is made available by the EEA.

Table 6: Original and harmonised labels for air pollutant emission data contained in the EU emission inventory report 1990-2021 under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (Air Convention) and made available by the EEA (EEA, 2023e).

Table 7: Projections data reported to the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) according to a ‘With Additional Measures’ (WAM) scenario (when available). Original labels refer to the NFR 14/Guidelines 2014. Recently, new guidelines have been made available and more detailed sector categories are available (EMEP, 2023).