Premature deaths due to exposure to fine particulate matter in Europe

The European Commission zero pollution action plan sets a target to reduce the health impacts of air pollution by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 2005. Between 2005 and 2022, the number of premature deaths in the EU attributable to PM_2.5 fell by 45%. If this trend continues, the target will be achieved and likely exceeded. The European Commission has separately projected that this target will be surpassed if EU policies on air, climate and energy are adequately implemented. Despite ongoing improvement, 239,000 premature deaths attributable to PM_2.5occured in the EU during 2022.

Premature deaths attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), EU

Air pollution is a major cause of mortality and disease and the largest single environmental health risk in Europe. The air pollutant with the strongest evidence for adverse health outcomes is fine particulate matter (PM_2.5).

The European Green Deal calls for further improvements in air quality and to revise the EU’s air quality standards, aligning them more closely with the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations on air quality. The target of reducing the number of premature deaths caused by air pollution by 55% by 2030, relative to those in 2005 (based on premature deaths attributable to PM_2.5) is set by the zero pollution action plan (ZPAP).

In October 2022, the European Commission proposed a revision of the EU Ambient Air Quality Directives. As agreed by the co-legislators and published in November 2024, the revised Directive introduces new standards to be attained in 2030 that align closer with WHO recommendations and an obligation to monitor additional pollutants such as ultrafine particles and ammonia.

Between 2005 and 2022, premature deaths attributable to PM_2.5 exposure above the WHO air quality guideline level of 5µg/m³ fell by 45% in the EU Member States (Figure 1). The decrease was caused by a decline in concentrations of PM_2.5, hence a decrease in the exposure of the population to this air pollutant. Yet, more than 70% of the EU population live in urban areas and in 2022, 96% of the urban population was exposed to PM_2.5 concentrations above the WHO guideline level.

The premature mortality decline is a result of EU, national and local policy implementation to improve air quality (e.g. the EU Ambient Air Quality Directives and the plans and measures derived from them) and to reduce emissions of air pollutants, including particulate matter (e.g. the National Emission Reduction Commitments Directive). These policies succeeded in reducing fine particulate matter emissions from domestic heating, their main source, and other sources such as industry and transport. Emissions of ammonia, a secondary PM precursor, from agriculture have also been reduced to a lesser extent.

If the past 17 year trend should continue, the decline in premature mortality attributable to PM_2.5 would reach 63% by 2030 (from 2005 levels) and the 55% zero pollution reduction target would be exceeded. The 2022 Third Clean Air Outlook also estimates that the target may be exceeded if the foreseen clean air measures, together with climate and energy polices of the ‘Fit for 55’ package are implemented. It envisions a similar reduction of 66% by 2030 if the conditions are met.

The ZPAP target is set at EU level and there are many differences in the change of mortality due to exposure to PM_2.5 at country level during 2005 to 2022. Mortality per capita has decreased in all EU Member States, by more than half in 21 countries (Figure 2).

A decrease in mortality can also be seen in non-EU member countries. Seven have reduced the number of premature deaths attributable to exposure to PM_2.5by more than half. The country level decrease partly reflects the reduction in PM_2.5 concentrations over the years.

For comparison of the impact of air pollution on human health across the different NUTS3 regions of Europe, this map shows the number of premature deaths attributable to PM_2.5 (per 100,000 inhabitants aged above 30 years). The highest relative number of attributable deaths in 2022 within the EU were in the regions of Sofia and Vidin (Bulgaria), and Miasto Kraków (Poland). In contrast, several Finnish and Swedish regions and one Austrian region had very low attributable deaths (i.e. below one per 100,000 inhabitants aged above 30 years).

The highest number of relative attributable deaths for European countries outside the EU in 2022 were in the regions of Skopski, Vardarski and Pelagoniski (North Macedonia) and Nišavska oblast (Serbia). The lowest numbers were seen in all Icelandic and four Norwegian regions with less than one attributable death per 100,000 inhabitants aged above 30 years.

Supporting information

Definition

This indicator provides information on the number of premature deaths in the EU-27 attributable to long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) since the year 2005.

It also shows a comparison in the mortality attributable to PM_2.5 between years 2005 and the most recent year with available data, at country level, for 40 European countries.

Furthermore, it provides European NUTS3 regional-level information on the number of premature deaths adjusted for the number of inhabitants aged above 30 years attributable to long-term exposure to PM_2.5 for the most recent year with available data. Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics, or NUTS classification, is a system for dividing up the European territory for the collection of regional statistics, where NUTS3 corresponds to small regions.

Methodology

The EEA has been estimating the mortality attributable to air pollution in the last years. Until year 2021 (when the mortality for year 2019 was estimated), it used the recommendations provided by the WHO Europe in its 2013 report. This methodology has been explained in several documents, among them:

· the EEA briefing ‘Assessing the risks to health from air pollution’;

· ETC/ATNI (2019, 2021) .

After the publication of the new WHO global air quality guidelines in 2021, and to reflect the updated recommendations, there has been some changes in the data used in that methodology; those changes were implemented for the first time in 2022 (to estimate the mortality in year 2020):

· The relative risk has been updated from the previous 0.062 to 0.08; this implies that the risk of dying prematurely increases by 8% per each increase in 10µg/m³ in the PM_2.5 concentrations (previously the increment in the risk was 6.2%).

· The concentration from which the effect of exposure to PM_2.5 is considered has changed from 0µg/m³ to 5µg/m³; in this way the EEA estimates the mortality attributable to not reaching the air quality guideline level recommended by WHO, and considers in this way the concentrations for which the form of the concentration-response function is linear and for which this function is more certain. Nevertheless, it should be considered that there is no evidence of a threshold below which air pollution does not impact on health. (Please see additional information at the EEA’s briefing Health impacts of air pollution in Europe, 2022).

Finally, in the 2024 update, the mortality per number of inhabitants has been calculated considering only the population aged above 30 years, since this is the population for which the total mortality is calculated, following the concentration-response functions recommended by WHO.

Mortality calculations for all years back from 2005 have been recalculated using this updated methodology.

The aggregations are either at European, EU, country or at NUTS3 level.

Policy/environmental relevance

The zero pollution action plan, adopted in the context of the European Green Deal, has, among other things, set the goal to reduce by 2030 the number of premature deaths in the EU caused by air pollution by at least 55%, relative to 2005 levels and specified that this will be monitored via the premature deaths attributed to PM_2.5.

This indicator is a headline indicator for monitoring progress towards the 8^th Environment Action Progamme. It mainly contributes to monitoring aspects of the 8^th EAP priority objective Article 2.2.d that shall be met by 2030: ‘pursuing zero pollution, including in relation to harmful chemicals, in order to achieve a toxic-free environment, including for air, water and soil, as well as in relation to light and noise pollution, and protecting the health and wellbeing of people, animals and ecosystems from environment-related risks and negative impacts’, (European Union Decision on the 8^th EAP). In line with the zero pollution action plan, the European Commission’s Communication on the 8^th EAP monitoring framework specifies that this indicator monitors progress towards reducing ‘premature deaths from air pollution by 55% (from 2005 levels) by 2030’, (European Commission Communication on the 8^th EAP monitoring framework).

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Premature deaths due to exposure to fine particulate matter in Europe

Figure 1. Premature deaths attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), EU

Figure 2. Premature deaths normalized by population attributable to exposure to PM₂.₅ at country level in 2005 and 2022, and percentage of change

Supporting information

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References and footnotes