The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector plays a key role in achieving the European Union’s goal of zero net emissions by 2050. LULUCF activities removed net 236 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) from the atmosphere in 2022, equal to 7% of the EU’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. Removals are estimated to have grown to 257MtCO2e in 2023. The LULUCF Regulation sets an EU-level net removal target of an additional 42MtCO2e by 2030, as compared to the 2016-2018 average. Based on Member State projections submitted, this target will not be met. Projections that include planned additional measures foresee a reduction in removals compared with the 2016-2018 average. The 2024 update of National energy and climate plans is expected to contribute to bridging the gap toward the target.

Figure 1. EU emissions and removals of the LULUCF sector by main land use category

The EU aims to be climate neutral by 2050, as set out in the European Climate Law. Achieving this depends on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and on increasing CO2 removals from the atmosphere. The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector has the potential to contribute by removing CO2 from the atmosphere.

The LULUCF Regulation sets an EU-level net removal target of an additional 42MtCO2e by 2030 as compared to the 2016-2018 average. In 2024, this is reported to be removals of 274MtCO2e. In 2022, the EU’s LULUCF sector accounted for the net removal of 236MtCO2e, equal to 7% of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions and it is estimated to account for 257MtCO2e in 2023. Overall, removals have decreased in the past 10 years, mainly as a result of increased harvesting of wood and lower sequestration of carbon by ageing forests.

Natural disturbances (e.g. wind throws, forest fires, droughts) cause inter-annual variations, and their increasing frequency has been negatively affecting long-term trends. A decreased rate of net forest area gain has also contributed to the reduction in removals. Cropland, grassland, wetland and settlements are sources of LULUCF emissions at EU level. Soils containing large proportions of organic matter (mainly peat) account for a large proportion of these emissions, although such “organic soils” are only found in wetter and colder parts of Europe.

Member State projections submitted in 2023 and 2024 suggest that net removals will decrease at EU level, from an average of 315MtCO2e per year in 1990-2021 to 206MtCO2e in 2022-2050 with existing measures. Additional measures reported by Member States are expected to increase average net removals in 2022-2050 (by 10% compared to existing measures scenario). Projections show that 2030 net removals of 224MtCO2e are expected with existing measures and 240MtCO2e with planned additional measures. This means at present, the EU is not on track to meet the 2030 net removal target of additional 42MtCO2e compared to the 2016-2018 average.

The combination of less carbon sequestration in forests as they age, increased harvesting levels, faster decomposition of dead organic matter in ecosystems driven by higher temperatures and other climate change impacts make it challenging to increase carbon stocks and reverse the current trend.

Discounting preliminary 2023 data, the last 10-year trend has consistently pointed in the wrong direction. There is, therefore, a need to both reverse the trend as well as to accelerate in the right direction. This requires significantly more ambitious removal measures to be implemented in the coming years.

Measures with additional mitigation potential are increased afforestation, decreased deforestation, improved forest management, reduced harvesting levels, rewetting of drained soils with a high carbon content such as peatlands, improved crop rotation and improved grassland management. The challenge for many measures is the time lag between when a mitigation measure is implemented and the results.

Figure 2. Comparison of cumulative historical and projected LULUCF emissions and removals per Member State

Among the EU Member States, Romania, Sweden, Spain, Italy, Poland, and France were responsible for the largest cumulative net removals from the LULUCF sector in the past 10 years, contributing to approximately 85% of the EU’s LULUCF sink. Although these countries are expected to remain large contributors, all project a reduction in removals in the coming decade.

However, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal and Slovenia project increasing cumulative removals in the next decade. The LULUCF sectors in Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Malta and the Netherlands were a net source of emissions in the past decade and are projected to remain so in the coming decade. Czechia which had net cumulative removals in the past decade is projected to have net emissions in the coming decade.