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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions regulated by the EU Effort Sharing legislation, from the transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste sectors, have fallen 18% between 2005 and 2022. Preliminary estimates for 2023 show a further 2% reduction compared with 2022 levels, keeping the GHG emissions below the established emission trajectory for the year. More ambitious national Effort Sharing emission targets adopted for the Fit-for-55 package will require European Union countries to increase efforts. Member States’ GHG emissions are projected to fall to 34% below 2005 levels by 2030, meaning acceleration is required to reach the 2030 target of 40% reductions in the Effort Sharing sectors.
Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions trends and projections under the scope of the Effort Sharing legislation, EU-27
The Effort Sharing legislation covers greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport (without aviation), buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste. These account for more than 60% of total EU GHG emissions. The legislation defines annual emission limits for the years 2021 to 2030, in addition to establishing national targets for the reduction of GHG emissions in the Member States by 2030.
Emissions under the Effort Sharing legislation were 18% lower in 2022 than 2005. The buildings sector accounted for the largest reduction (-21%), with transport (-5%) and agriculture (-5%) sectors showing more modest reductions.
Provisional figures for 2023 suggest a further decrease in total Effort Sharing GHG emissions by 2% compared to 2022, with buildings again responsible for the largest reduction (-6%). Smaller emission reductions are anticipated for domestic transport (-1%) and agriculture (-2%) sectors. Total EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) emissions remained below the aggregated emission limits in 2022 and 2023, as defined by the Effort Sharing legislation for these years.
With the amendments to the ESR adopted in 2023, the EU-level GHG reduction target for 2030 was boosted from 29% to 40%, compared with 2005 levels. Emission limits for each year up to 2030 have also been tightened. This implies that in the coming years, emissions will need to decline significantly faster than the reduction rate observed in recent years.
Based on projections submitted by Member States, current policies and measures will not be sufficient to achieve this acceleration. Existing measures are projected to reduce GHG emissions under the Effort Sharing legislation by 27% by 2030. When considering the additional planned measures, the projected reduction reaches 34%. More ambitious policies and measures are being developed in ongoing updates of the National Energy and Climate Plans. New EU-wide policy tools such as the emission trading system for buildings, road transport and additional sectors provide additional incentives to reduce emissions under the Effort Sharing sectors.
Figure 2. National progress towards greenhouse gas emission targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR)
Member State targets under the ESR range from a 50% reduction compared to 2005 for some countries to a 10% reduction for others. Member States are also subject to gradually decreasing annual emission limits for each year from 2021 to 2030.
In 2022, eight Member States (Croatia, Cyprus, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta and Romania) exhibited Effort Sharing sector emissions above their annual emission allocations (AEAs). This indicates that these Member States need to make use of the flexibilities available under the legislative framework to comply with their annual limits.
Preliminary data suggest that GHG emissions remained below the limits for some Member States in 2023. However not for Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, Poland and Romania. An increasing number of countries project to exceed their established national emission limits in the coming years.
Member States' GHG projections for 2030, indicate, with their current measures in place, Greece and Portugal are likely to meet Effort Sharing targets. With additional planned measures, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Spain are also projected to meet their 2030 Effort Sharing targets. The cumulative emissions of Member States in druing 2021-2030 would exceed the amount of AEAs available at EU level for this period by about 2%. This indicates that Member States with a shortage of AEAs may not be able to buy enough allocations from other countries.
The GHG projections used for the above analysis were reported by Member States in March 2023 and updated by some in 2024. It is still early to assess the likelihood of achieving the 2030 targets under the Effort Sharing legislation. Member States can establish additional measures that result in lower projected emissions through the update of the National Energy and Climate Plans, which will be assessed by the end of this year.
If Member States perform well under the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation, a limited number of land use credits can be used to comply with their national targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation. Nonetheless, it is evident that a significant increase in the efforts is imperative to meet the increased national targets under the Effort Sharing Legislation.