Europe’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) has seen greenhouse gas emissions decrease significantly since its launch in 2005. Carbon pricing, changes in fuel prices and climate policies, including those promoting renewable energy, have driven emission reductions from stationary installations and contributed considerably to EU's climate objectives. Emissions fell substantially in 2023, marking the largest annual reduction since the ETS launch. The new target for 2030 is defined as a 62% reduction compared to 2005 for the whole ETS scope. Recent projections suggest that with strong and decicive action, this target may be within reach.

Figure 1. Historical and projected emissions from stationary installations covered by the EU Emissions Trading System in the European Economic Area

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is a ‘cap and trade’ system operating in the European Economic Area . It sets a yearly cap on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from stationary installations, covering power and carbon-intense industries, flights within the European Economic Area and, from 2024, international navigation. ETS emissions from stationary installations in 2023 accounted for 34% of total GHG emissions from the European Economic Area.

Emissions from stationary installations have declined by 48% since the ETS was introduced in 2005. The main drivers of these reductions have been a rising carbon price, changing fuel prices encouraging a transition away from coal, and renewable energy policies aimed at decarbonising the power sector. Lower energy demand, significant reductions in the industrial sector, and global events such as the 2008 economic crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic have also played a role.

Compared to 2022, data for 2023 show a decrease of 217 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (MtCO2e) in emissions from stationary installations. This decrease of 17% marks the largest annual reduction since the ETS was launched. It brings emissions covered by the ETS to a level less than the observed Covid-19 related minimum in 2020. The main driver for this substantial reduction was the continued deployment of renewable electricity production and a combination of reduced output and efficiency gains in industrial sectors.

The ETS Directive was amended in May 2023 to include a more ambitious target for emissions covered by the ETS: 62% reduction compared with 2005 for the whole ETS scope, including aviation and shipping, with a stricter yearly emissions cap. This revision was part of the Fit for 55 package aimed at reducing net GHG emissions by 55% by 2030, compared with 1990. The EU also aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

Projections provided by participating countries, based on a 'with existing measures' (WEM) scenario, indicate that in 2030, stationary ETS emissions are expected to reach emissions levels 54% below 2005 levels. The more ambitious “with additional measures” (WAM) scenario projects a 59% reduction in 2030 compared to 2005. The power sector and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing industries, are expected to account for most of the projected reduction in ETS emissions. While the WAM scenario is still higher than the cap in 2030, it shows that with strong, decisive and continued efforts, the EU is on track to meet its ETS target.

Figure 2. Changes in emissions covered by the EU Emissions Trading System by sector, 2013-2023, relative to 2013

Over the past decade, most of the reduction in ETS emissions can be attributed to decreasing emissions from ‘combustion of fuels’, pimarily in the power sector. This reflects the ongoing decarbonisation of the European energy system, characterised by a switch from coal to gas and renewables.

In 2023, emissions from ‘combustion of fuels’ decreased considerably, driven by a shift towards renewable energy sources and a decline in electricity demand. Coal and lignite power plants played a significant role as well, together with emission reductions from cement, iron, refineries and 'other sectors'.

Flights within the European Economic Area are also covered by the ETS. Emissions from aviation have grown rapidly since 2013, driven by increased air travel and challenges in decarbonising this sector. Emissions dropped temporarily due to strict travel restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic but have since accelerated again, reflecting a rebound in air traffic.  From 2024, maritime transport will be included in the EU ETS and from 2027, a new ETS 2 will be introduced to incentivise reductions in buildings and road transport emissions.