Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

The transport sector is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. The sector has shown little progress in the reduction of emissions in recent decades. Despite efforts to reduce emissions from transport, such as increasing the deployment of electric vehicles, emissions have not significantly decreased since 2005. Estimates of 2023 emissions indicate a small drop of 0.8% compared with 2022. Member States project that domestic transport emissions will only fall below their 1990 levels in 2032. International aviation and maritime emissions are projected to continue increasing.

Reducing emissions is one of the greatest challenges in achieving a sustainable transformation of the EU’s mobility systems as highlighted in the EEA’s report on Sustainability of Europe’s mobility systems. The EU’s domestic GHG transport emissions show a weak downward trend since 2005. The most significant drop occurred in 2020 due to effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Emissions rebounded again in 2021 and 2022, before preliminary estimates indicate a slight decrease of 0.8% in 2023.

According to their national emission projections, Member States expect a general decrease in transport emissions over the next decades. These projections differentiate between the expected emission reductions from current policies and measures, and the additional reductions that planned measures can generate. The requirements for the projections are established in the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action Regulation.

By 2030, current policies and measures are projected to deliver GHG emissions from transport that remain 4% above 1990 levels. With additional measures, those emissions would be 8% below 1990 levels. Most planned policies and measures in the transport sector focus on promoting low-carbon fuels or zero-emission technologies, as well as encouraging a modal shift to public transport.

Among the domestic transport categories, emissions from domestic navigation, domestic aviation and railway have decreased since 1990. They are projected to remain relatively stable in the coming years. Only road transport emissions are projected to decrease.

Road transport constitutes the highest proportion of overall transport emissions. In 2022 it emitted 73.2% of all EU’s transport GHG emissions (including domestic transport and international bunkers). This share is expected to decrease, as a majority of implemented and planned measures at the Union level focus on road transport.

The greatest increases up to 2030 are projected for aviation and international maritime transport. This continues the trend in emissions from both activities, which have grown since 1990. With road transport emissions set to decline, aviation and maritime emissions are therefore expected to constitute a higher proportion of transport sector emissions in the coming years.

The years impacted by Covid-19 were an exception to the trends described above. Aviation was particularly affected by the pandemic, with international aviation emissions 58% lower in 2020 than in 2019. However, this reduction was temporary. Air traffic emissions rose by 25% in 2021 and the pace further accelerated by 57% in 2022. Flight numbers are expected to return to 2019 levels by 2025.

Supporting information

DefinitionMethodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

The indicator uses information from three EEA data sets covering different time periods: the greenhouse gas emissions inventory (for the years 1990 until 2022), approximated estimates of greenhouse gas emissions (for the year 2023) and greenhouse gas emissions projections (from 2023 until 2040).

Figure 1 uses historical, approximated and projected GHG emissions for the domestic transport sector. The domestic transport sector includes emissions from domestic aviation, road transport, railways, domestic navigation, and other transportation.

Figure 2 uses historical, approximated, and projected GHG emissions for various transport modes, including road transport, railway transport, domestic navigation, international navigation, domestic aviation, international aviation. Approximated greenhouse gas emissions are used for international aviation and international maritime transport.

Information on the categories can be found in the IPCC guideline used for the GHG emission inventories. However, yearly category numbers and names can differ to the reported ones by member states as they underly international negotiations.

Projections cover the period 2015-2040 but are displayed from year 2023 onwards. Values from 2015 to 2023 are used to calibrate the projections. Two distinct projection scenarios are developed by the Member States, based on different levels of implementation of climate mitigation policies: the ‘with existing measures’ scenario includes policies already adopted, while the ‘with additional measures’ scenario includes planned policies and national targets (GovReg, 2018, Art. 18).

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Policy/environmental relevance

Context description

The European Green Deal sets out the aim to achieve a carbon neutral EU by 2050. This requires the decarbonisation of all sectors. To achieve these goals, the European Climate Law set the necessary legal obligations, including the overall GHG emission reduction target of 55% by 2030 and the reduction of transport emissions by 90% by 2050.

To ensure that the EU transport system can achieve a green transformation, the ‘Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy’ was presented in 2020. Together with an action plan, this strategy includes 84 initiatives that will help to achieve the transformation. This strategy is important because the transport sector is responsible for nearly a quarter of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, this sector has proven difficult to decarbonise and has not shown the same decreases in GHG emissions since 1990 as other sectors. Therefore, it is important to track this sector in detail and project changes in GHG emissions based on the reductions possible with policy measures that have already been adopted or are planned in the EU Member States.

Commercial aviation (all airlines operating in Europe) is covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), while the rest of the transport sector (excluding international shipping) is covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation. The indicator allows the contributions of the transport sector to meeting targets set out in both these pieces of legislation to be assessed in detail.

Targets

Targets not defined for this indicator.

Metadata

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Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

Figure 2. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the EU, by transport mode and scenario

Supporting information

Methodology for indicator calculation

Methodology for gap filling

Methodology references

Context description

Targets

Related policy documents

Methodology uncertainty

Data sets uncertainty

Rationale uncertainty

Metadata

References and footnotes