Projected changes in fire danger

Fire danger is expressed by the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). Based on projections by the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RACMO2 driven by the Global Climate Model (GCM) ECHAM5 for the SRES A1B emission scenario.
Left: projected change in SSR by 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990 baseline period; Right: projected annual average SSR in 2071–2100.

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Methodology

Left map: Forest fire danger is expressed by the average Seasonal Severity Rating index (derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System). Percentage change of 2071-2100 SSR versus 1981-2010 SSR levels is shown in the map. The SSR series was computed usign the GCM-RCM run KNMI-RACMO2-ECHAM5 of ENSEMBLES project.

Right map: Forest fire danger is expressed by the average Seasonal Severity Rating index (derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System). Average 2071-2100 SSR levels are shown in the map. The SSR series was computed usign the GCM-RCM run KNMI-RACMO2-ECHAM5 of ENSEMBLES project.

Units

Left map: % change in SSR

Right map: SSR

Projected changes in fire danger

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References and footnotes