Peak and 2100 concentrations of total greenhouse gases in the atmosphere consistent with a 67% probability of keeping the average global temperature increase below 1.5°C (left) and 2°C (right)

The periods within which peak concentrations could be exceeded are shown by light blue arrows, based on the trend of the past 10 years in total greenhouse gas concentrations and without allowing for a temperature overshoot (based on IPCC, 2019).

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Methodology

The figure is complied by using the observed concentration levels and observed trend over past 10 years as starting point. IPCC 2018 provided information on the peak and 2100 concentration levels consistent with keeping global average temperature increase below 1.5°C (left) and 2°C (right), for various probability levels of achieving these temperature targets (top to down). The higher a probability level the lower the peak and 2100 concentration has to be.

Units

Parts per million CO₂ equivalent (ppm CO₂e)

Peak and 2100 concentrations of total greenhouse gases in the atmosphere consistent with a 67% probability of keeping the average global temperature increase below 1.5°C (left) and 2°C (right)

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References and footnotes