Changes in the 10-year high river flow for European cities with large river basins (ratio between 2051-2100 and 1951-2000 flows)

The map shows the changes in the 10-year high river flow for European cities with large river basins for the ratio between projected future (2051-2100) and historical flows (1951-2000).

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Ratio between projected future and historical flows

Additional information

The 10-year high flow corresponds with the 1 in 10-year return periods of annual maximum daily discharge. The changes are calculated as the projected 2051–2100 10-year high flow divided by 1951–2000 10-year high flow. They are shown for low (10th percentile) impact scenario and high (90th percentile) impact scenario. Based on 50 climate model projections from the CMIP5 (Taylor et al., 2012), for the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. The DEM Hydro1K was used to delineate river basins for each city. The 1 in 10 year high flow was estimated using a regression model based on gauge discharge data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), and the European daily gridded dataset, E-OBS (Haylock et al., 2008). The cities included in the analysis (365) are those that have an upstream river basin above 500 km2. The 50th percentile (median) scenario is available in the Urban Adaptation Map Viewer, see also Guerreiro et al. (2018).
Source: Adapted from Guerreiro et al. (2018).

Changes in the 10-year high river flow for European cities with large river basins (ratio between 2051-2100 and 1951-2000 flows)

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