Change factor of maximum drought in 571 European cities between 1951-2000 and 2051-2100

The map presents the projected change in drought magnitude in the second half of the 21st century compared to the hisorical period (1951-2000).

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Change factor

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The 12-month scale Drought Severity Index (DSI-12) was used. It is based on cumulative monthly precipitation anomalies, where the absolute deficit (in mm) is divided by the mean annual rainfall and multiplied by 100. DSI-12 is a rainfall index and therefore does not account for an increase in drought due to increasing temperatures (and subsequently potential evaporation). The map shows the ratio of the maximum DSI-12 in the future to the maximum DSI-12 in the historical period. Based on 50 climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; (Taylor et al., 2012), under the RCP8.5 climate scenario. Low impact scenario (left) refers to 10th percentile and high impact scenario (right) refers to 90th percentile of projections.
Source: Adapted from Guerreiro et al. (2018).

Change factor of maximum drought in 571 European cities between 1951-2000 and 2051-2100

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