Year
|
All greenhouse gases and other forcing agents (incl. aerosols)
|
50% probability of below 1.5 °C
|
50% probability of below 2 °C
|
1970
|
322
|
430
|
530
|
1975
|
332
|
430
|
530
|
1978
|
340
|
430
|
530
|
1979
|
343
|
430
|
530
|
1980
|
347
|
430
|
530
|
1981
|
349
|
430
|
530
|
1982
|
352
|
430
|
530
|
1983
|
354
|
430
|
530
|
1984
|
357
|
430
|
530
|
1985
|
359
|
430
|
530
|
1986
|
362
|
430
|
530
|
1987
|
365
|
430
|
530
|
1988
|
369
|
430
|
530
|
1989
|
371
|
430
|
530
|
1990
|
373
|
430
|
530
|
1991
|
376
|
430
|
530
|
1992
|
378
|
430
|
530
|
1993
|
380
|
430
|
530
|
1994
|
382
|
430
|
530
|
1995
|
385
|
430
|
530
|
1996
|
388
|
430
|
530
|
1997
|
390
|
430
|
530
|
1998
|
393
|
430
|
530
|
1999
|
396
|
430
|
530
|
2000
|
398
|
430
|
530
|
2001
|
400
|
430
|
530
|
2002
|
402
|
430
|
530
|
2003
|
405
|
430
|
530
|
2004
|
407
|
430
|
530
|
2005
|
410
|
430
|
530
|
2006
|
413
|
430
|
530
|
2007
|
416
|
430
|
530
|
2008
|
420
|
430
|
530
|
2009
|
422
|
430
|
530
|
2010
|
426
|
430
|
530
|
2011
|
430
|
430
|
530
|
2012
|
433
|
430
|
530
|
2013
|
437
|
430
|
530
|
2014
|
441
|
430
|
530
|
2015
|
445
|
430
|
530
|