Projected change in Northern hemisphere near-surface permafrost area

Projected change in sustainable near-surface permafost for four representative concentration pathways (RCP) based on the CMIP5 model ensemble. Soild lines show the model mean. For the highest and lowest RCP, uncertainty intervals comprising one standard deviation are also shown. Note that the projected reduction is for sustainable near-surface permafrost; it does not imply that deeper permafrost will disappear at a similar rate.